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Thunder are facing serious Spurs problem hidden by the series score

The Spurs have controlled much of this series.
May 22, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Caruso (9) reacts against the San Antonio Spurs in the second half during game three of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
May 22, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Caruso (9) reacts against the San Antonio Spurs in the second half during game three of the western conference finals for the 2026 NBA playoffs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

Through four games, San Antonio has led for 109:55 compared to Oklahoma City's 75:28, meaning the Spurs have spent 34 minutes and 27 seconds longer in front despite the series being tied at 2-2. That's 55.8% of the time these two clubs have spent sharing the floor. That's confirming the conclusion we should all be reaching based on the eye test.

OKC is usually playing from a deficit

Despite holding the title of "defending champions," the Thunder have spent much of this series looking up at the very young Spurs. After the Game 4 drubbing, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander told reporters that San Antonio punched them in the mouth early, similar to how they did in Game 3. They just couldn't overcome it this time.

What he failed to mention is that the trend has been consistent in each game. The Silver and Black have taken the first lead in every meeting thus far. Whether they held onto it was another story, but one team clearly establishes itself first on a nightly basis, and it's not OKC. That's likely piling into the psychological hold the Spurs are slowly establishing over the Thunder.

These teams have faced off nine times so far this season, and the Spurs have won six of them. That's not a small sample size. The fact that no matter the stakes, a bunch of guys in their early twenties keep bludgeoning them in a way nobody else in the league is capable of must be on the back of their minds. In nearly 10 tries, they haven't been able to solve San Antonio. That's alarming... for them.

The Spurs' advantage won't change in this series

There just isn't an answer for Victor Wembanyama right now. That doesn't just apply to OKC; it goes for the entire league. There's a reason why the Spurs' rise has been meteoric. The rest of the roster has been put together well, sure, but people aren't wrong for believing that San Antonio wouldn't be ready because of their age. Wemby is just so damn good at basketball that he breaks all the rules.

That's never more apparent than when fans are forced to listen to analysts and announcers repeatedly express how much the Spurs' plus/minus swings based on whether the Alien is on the court or not. They'd be blown out of this series without him and likely wouldn't have made it past the Minnesota Timberwolves.

That's the beauty of basketball. Unlike football, one player can drastically impact the outcome of a game or series. And when you have that guy, his presence will be stamped over every game and series. That's what we're witnessing now and what the Thunder are struggling to contain, regardless of what the 2-2 series score suggests.

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