After winning 61 games in the 2016-17 season, how many wins will the San Antonio Spurs compile in 2017-18?
It’s almost time for another San Antonio Spurs season. They finished second in the Western Conference in in the 2016-17 NBA season, with a spot in the Western Conference Finals.
For the second consecutive year, the Spurs topped 60 wins. They did this for the sixth time since 2000, along with never winning fewer than 50 games in a full non-strike-shortened season since 1996-97.
Will the Spurs top 60 wins, again in the 2017-18 season? Are they in for less than 50 wins?
It’s tough to predict all 82 games of an NBA season, especially with how volatile lineups are, the injuries that happen and other occurrences. Look at the 1996-97 season, when the Spurs lost David Robinson to multiple injuries (he played just six games). Without him, San Antonio went from 59 to 20 wins within a calendar year.
With the end of the 2016-17 season, the Spurs averaged 56 wins since 1997-98. They won this specific amount twice (1997-98, 2007-08).
A similar roster is back for this season. Eight of the top 10 players in Win Shares are back, with the exception of Dewayne Dedmon and David Lee. Jonathon Simmons, arguably the highest profile name to leave the team, finished 12th with 2.0 Win Shares.
Joffrey Lauvergne and Rudy Gay combined for 1.9 Win Shares in 2016-17. That’s not exactly much, and while Gay combined for 9.9 in the two seasons prior to last, he’s coming off an Achilles rupture.
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Win Shares can be a basis for how many wins the Spurs have this season. However, there’s the volatile “rest” factor, that Gregg Popovich has every year, whether the NBA allows it or not. How many games will that cost the team’s win total? Will it at all?
With all this in mind, a fair shake for the Spurs would be above 54 wins, with some decrease from last year’s total. The Western Conference had multiple teams upgrade their rosters, and while that’s no guarantee for anything, there are certainly interesting challenges for the team to face.
Let’s try 55 wins for the Spurs. They’ll drop six from last season, due to competition and potential frontcourt questions, if they don’t get cleared up.
How many wins do you think San Antonio will finish with in the spring? Will the total increase or decrease?