Spurs' path to blockbuster Giannis trade could be easier than anyone predicted

Between potentially all-revealing social media posts and the acquisition of Myles Turner, the Milwaukee Bucks seem poised to hang onto Giannis Antetokounmpo through at least the offseason, if not the entire 2025-26 campaign. That is, unless they’re not. And in that case, the San Antonio Spurs should be considered virtual locks to land him.

During a recent appearance on NBA Today, ESPN’s Ramona Shelburne said that it appears Giannis hasn’t made any concrete decisions on his future. “My sense is, just from conversations around the league, I don't think anything will be decided on his end until August, September," she explained. "Whether he goes or stays, that kind of decision doesn't come until late in the summer." 

Anyone hoping their team can pry Giannis out of Milwaukee will be elated by this latest update. And yet, unless you root for the Spurs, you shouldn’t get too excited.

Other NBA teams can no longer compete with the Spurs’ best Giannis trade offer

If and when Giannis becomes available, there will be no shortage of suitors. Twenty-nine teams will accost Bucks general manager Jon Horst by way of phone, email, WhatsApp, Signal account, and heck, maybe even carrier pigeon. 

Good luck finding the team that can beat out Spurs. They have two blue-chip prospects, in Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle, to help jump-start Milwaukee’s post-Giannis era; plenty of different ways to match money; and first-round picks to spare even after trading for De’Aaron Fox.

The Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder loom as the only squads capable of topping San Antonio’s best proposals. But if Giannis gets the itch to leave this offseason, neither feels like a real threat. 

Oklahoma City won't do anything nuclear following a title. Houston, meanwhile, is harder-pressed to construct packages after acquiring Kevin Durant, extending Jabari Smith Jr., and re-signing Fred VanVleet. Until the middle of December, Alperen Sengun almost has to be the matching salary, and he alone won’t be enough. The Rockets' chances could fall apart unless it includes Durant himself (who Milwaukee won’t want), or Amen Thompson.

Immediate threats to the Spurs ends here. New York and Miami don’t have the assets to make a real run at Giannis. Ditto for the Golden State Warriors. The Atlanta Hawks are dark horses now that they control Milwaukee’s firsts in 2026 and 2027. But will they have enough left over to optimize the Giannis-Trae Young pairing if they must include Zaccharie Risacher and Jalen Johnson as part of any deal?

Short of the Dallas Mavericks putting Cooper Flagg on the table, San Antonio now stands alone.

It’s time to rethink Giannis’ availability on the trade market

Many are Sharpie-ing in Giannis for a return to Milwaukee following the latest round of transactions. Surely there is no way the Bucks waive-and-stretch Damian Lillard, saddling themselves with $22.5 million in dead money per year through 2029-30, without knowing it would keep Antetokounmpo in town…right?

Not if Shelburne’s intel is accurate. And there is no reason to believe it’s not. Not only was Giannis (allegedly) surprised by the Bucks landing Turner, but rival front offices around the league have never been sold on him staying put. 

This includes the Spurs. Along with the Miami Heat and New York Knicks, they were among the teams that withheld assets in Kevin Durant trade talks because they are waiting on Giannis’ future to resolve itself. 

Granted, just because suitors have circled his name in expertly doodled hearts doesn’t mean the two-time MVP will become available. But there is enough evidence to suggest that Milwaukee acquired Turner without a guarantee it would dissuade Giannis from leaving. And that, quite frankly, is excellent news for the Spurs.