Spurs’ championship hopes are riding on conquering a major red flag

The Spurs have as good a chance as any team to win a championship this June. They had an unbelievable regular season, and for the most part, they’re built for the playoffs. However, San Antonio has one major on-court red flag that could hold them back: their three-point shooting.

Yes, that’s the low-hanging fruit, but it’s the obvious answer for a reason.

San Antonio’s shaky shooting will be magnified in the postseason

The Spurs were smack dab in the middle of the pack shooting-wise this season, ranking 14th in three-point attempts per game and 15th in percentage. That alone is enough to be a bit concerned because the last five NBA champions all finished within the top eight in three-point percentage. Even the 2025 Thunder and 2023 Nuggets, who didn’t necessarily prioritize the long ball in their offense, still shot it well.

This goes deeper than the percentages, though. San Antonio’s roster is littered with relatively unproven shooters who are going to be dared to let it fly time and time again. And, unfortunately, some of those shaky snipers are some of the most important players on the team.

De’Aaron Fox, as good as he’s been in his career, has always been incredibly streaky from beyond the arc. This season, he shot 33.2% from outside, which is right in line with his career success rate. Swipa is elite inside the arc—he can get to the rim whenever he wants or stop and knock down pull-up middies. So, defenders will likely respond in the postseason by giving him some space and daring him to hit threes.

The same problem arises with Stephon Castle, and to an even higher degree. Shooting has never been one of his strong suits. He did drill 41.7% of his threes after the All-Star break, but opponents are going to make him prove it’s real.

Dylan Harper, Keldon Johnson, and the young Carter Bryant also fall into this boat. Even Victor Wembanyama will probably be coaxed into chucking jumpers instead of attacking the paint. Starting to see the issue now?

Rough spacing would bog down the Spurs’ offense

Fox, Castle, Johnson, and the others are all going to play big minutes in the playoffs, as they should, of course. Mitch Johnson will need to be really sharp about his rotations, though, or the offense might get rough.

Too many below-par shooters on the floor at once could be a disaster for San Antonio. If defenses feel comfortable selling out and sending extra help at Wemby, Fox, or Castle inside, and whoever’s spotting up can’t convert their open looks, the offense is going to struggle in a major way.

Now, these players are obviously talented in other areas, and the team has managed to roll out an elite regular-season offense in spite of these concerns. Still, history says it’s something to keep an eye on. If the Spurs sink like the Titanic, shooting (or lack thereof) will probably be the iceberg.

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