Predicting all 8 Western Conference playoff teams, with the Spurs taking OKC’s top seed

Two games were all that separated San Antonio's 62-20 and Oklahoma City's 64-18 last season. The Spurs made sure everyone knew who the better team actually was when they took the Thunder out in seven, but it's a new year. The fight for the top begins again.

Here are the eight teams I have coming out of the West in April, play-in survivors included.

1. The Spurs had the longest runway to improve

Victor Wembanyama pulled 77% of the GM vote for MVP, the Slash Bros. will be a year better, and Tobias Harris is here on a two-year, $31 million deal. The Silver and Black are likely to pick up where they left off, but they should be even better this season.

2. Oklahoma City will still be great, but they'll take a step back

They shipped out Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe, and Aaron Wiggins this summer. That's a lot of connective tissue for a team to lose. You don't usually get better by losing depth.

3. Houston climbs with a jump from Amen Thompson

As much as I hate to give the Rockets credit for anything, I'm a believer in Amen Thompson. He's improved as a playmaker, and Chip Engelland will help improve his jump shot.

4. Denver will run back their usual Jokic-or-bust gameplan

Nikola Jokic accounted for 51% of all the Nuggets' points, rebounds, and assists last season. DeMar DeRozan is supposed to make up for losing Peyton Watson and Tim Hardaway Jr., but I think the wheels fall off in the playoffs yet again.

5. Luka Doncic will carry a heavy load in Los Angeles

The Lakers won 53 games, then lost LeBron James and Rui Hachimura. They added Walker Kessler and another year of growth from Austin Reaves should help, but I don't see the Lakers as a strong contender. They'll win a bunch of regular-season games as a result of a lot of Luka Doncic magic, though.

6. Ja Morant and Damian Lillard make Portland the West's wildcard

The Spurs handled the Trail Blazers in five last spring when they were 42-40, but that was before their reinforcement showed up. If this guard experiment works, Portland's offense will be incredibly difficult to defend.

7. Minnesota will pay for trading its frontcourt for LaMelo Ball

Julius Randle and Naz Reid are gone. I don't think Timberwolves fans are crying over Randle, but losing Reid was a big hit. That group pushed San Antonio to six games in the semis with an injured Anthony Edwards. LaMelo Ball won't be the catalyst they hope he'll be.

8. Utah spending is about to start paying off

No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson is expected to come in and contribute to a team with Lauri Markkanen, Keyonte George, and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those are good players making a lot of money. Expectations will be high after Utah finally got their man of the future. Their tanking days are over.

OKC has enjoyed undisputed playoff home-court advantage for long enough. The Spurs take that from them this season in a Western Conference full of fun storylines to watch.

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