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Ugly De'Aaron Fox reality may be on the horizon for the surging Spurs

The Spurs' window with Fox may not be as long as many thought.
Victor Wembanyama
Victor Wembanyama | Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

The San Antonio Spurs are currently steamrolling their way through the regular season with stars Victor Wembanyama and De'Aaron Fox leading the charge. Despite that, they may soon have new competition to contend with.

The NBA seems to be gaining momentum for expansion, with the possibility of announcing two new teams as early as this summer. In fact, those two franchises could take the court as soon as the 2027-28 season, giving the Spurs two new teams to face annually.

The NBA is long overdue for expansion, with the last new franchises debuting more than 20 years ago. Having teams in Seattle as well as Las Vegas would certainly be exciting for the league. However, it could negatively impact franchises such as the Spurs.

The addition of two new teams would trigger an expansion draft, allowing existing franchises to protect only eight players, leaving the rest open for selection.

The thought that San Antonio can protect only eight players means they could lose as many as seven to a new team, possibly even Fox. It would force San Antonio to make some intriguing decisions.

The Spurs may have to be very strategic in an expansion draft

The obvious question regarding a potential expansion draft is who would the Spurs protect? Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, Wembanyama, Luke Kornet, Carter Bryant, Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, and their 2026 and 2027 first-round selections would all be options.

However, they can protect only eight players, and their decisions regarding Champagnie, Vassell, and Johnson complicate the situation further. They could let Johnson leave after next season, re-sign Champagnie for relatively cheap, and ride out Vassell's deal.

Even then, it would leave them with nine protected players. Making Fox available might actually make sense, depending on the announcement and debut of expansion teams.

Hear me out. Fox is currently playing well and is just 28 years old, so there is minimal risk of him declining. Still, he isn't a true max player even though he will soon be on a max deal.

The Spurs have a small window to contend with Fox

It's fine now, but things will get tight when Wembanyama is on his supermax and wildly expensive if Castle qualifies for a rookie max extension.

If Castle and Harper both pan out, then Fox would eventually need to be moved, and that might be more complicated than fans might think. Fox will make at least $50 million annually once his new contract kicks in.

That means that if San Antonio has to trade him, they'd have to get positive value while also slashing salary. It's difficult to see that happening. Even if he has positive value, his contract may scare teams off.

The teams that might be interested may have only bad contracts to trade. That might net the Spurs assets but limit their flexibility. Instead, they could opt not to protect him in an expansion draft, potentially allowing them to remove his remaining salary.

Obviously that could be years away from happening, but it would give San Antonio a potential out in case Fox's contract doesn't age well and they have trouble moving him.

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