The Spurs will enter the new season with a psychological advantage over the Thunder, and no matter how the first game of the year goes, that won't be erased. Tobias Harris's calf strain will be a major reason for that, simply because the Thunder won't know exactly what to expect from San Antonio at full strength.
It's not like the Silver and Black barely edged Oklahoma City out in their extended series (including regular season and playoffs). The Spurs won 8 of 12 matchups and beat Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and his crew in a Game 7 on OKC's home floor. SA's four Western Conference Finals wins came by an average margin of 15.75 points.
The Spurs already have the Thunder on the ropes
Considering the youth and inexperience of the team at the time, that's absurd, and the Thunder will resent it. But still, Harris is questionable to start the season. If they beat the shorthanded Spurs on October 20, how could they feel confident when the prize signing of the summer wasn't in uniform? If they lose, that psychological edge gets even worse.
While winning every game is preferable, OKC will be more desperate than San Antonio. Their desire to reassert dominance in the West will be stronger than the Dark Side in Anakin Skywalker. That doesn't mean they'll win on opening night, but it does mean we should expect them to bring their best.
A win for them will be somewhat empty unless they outright dominate the Spurs, and we know that's not going to happen. Tobias Harris changes things. He'll improve this team on both ends of the floor, and the Thunder, like everyone else, will know that. What happens in the playoffs will be more important than what happens over the campaign of 82, but it all starts with the regular season.
Those matchups during the year help a team gather information and build confidence. With only three total matchups scheduled between these two rivals, time is limited. That means OKC will potentially have only two games to experience the new-look Spurs.
San Antonio's continuity gives it another edge over OKC
Of course, that cuts both ways. A completely healthy Silver and Black squad would also like to get their chemistry down and know how to react to one another against talented ball clubs like the Thunder, but again, OKC is the one fighting from a mental deficit.
Not to mention, San Antonio may have added some firepower via Tobias and the rookie draft picks, but they brought back all of their rotational pieces from a season ago. Picking up where they left off won't be very difficult at all. The Thunder, on the other hand, lost three players who logged real minutes for them. They'll still be a great team, but I have a hard time believing less is more in this scenario.
For the Spurs, less right now could mean more of a psychological hold over their fiercest rival. If San Antonio loses, the Thunder beat a Spurs team without its biggest offseason addition. If SA wins, OKC continues a troubling trend against the team that just knocked it out of the WCF. Either way, the pressure is on Oklahoma City to prove last season was an aberration.
(Psst... It wasn't.)
