Spurs’ worst nightmare comes true if NBA insiders are right

It's not even the training camp, but the San Antonio Spurs just received some bad news. According to a recent ESPN offseason survey, two NBA insiders picked the Atlanta Hawks to win the Eastern Conference.

That is bad news for the Spurs, who had a lot riding on the Hawks struggling. After all, they own the Hawks' 2026 pick swap and Atlanta's unprotected 2027 first-round pick.

The Spurs were clearly hoping that the Hawks would be far worse than they have turned out to be. In fact, they traded their 2027 first-round pick to the Sacramento Kings in the De'Aaron Fox trade since they already had the Hawks' 2027 first-round pick in their back pocket.

Unfortunately for San Antonio, the Hawks have done surprisingly well retooling around star Trae Young. That means there's no guarantee that ATL will actually be worse than the Spurs each of the next two seasons.

The Spurs may not be getting good picks from the Hawks

Spurs fans have held out hope that the Hawks' 2026 pick swap and 2027 first-round pick would be valuable. But, at the moment, those selections look like they could end up being in the twenties.

In that scenario, the Spurs' pick swap with the Hawks would be useless, and that 2027 first would be a run-of-the-mill late first-round selection. All may not be lost, however.

There is still the matter of Young and his contract extension. Despite building around him, they have yet to agree to a contract extension, and, ironically, the Spurs giving Fox the max might make it less likely a deal gets done.

The Spurs may have helped sabotage the Atlanta Hawks

Young could make an argument that he is better than Fox and crucial to what the Hawks do. Therefore, he could demand a max deal. The Hawks, obviously, don't feel that he is a max player and have yet to agree to a new deal.

If the Hawks aren't playing well ahead of the trade deadline, then it suddenly gets interesting as to whether they would entertain trading him. The Spurs should hope so, because it could wreck the Hawks' 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons.

That would get things back on track as far as the value of those Hawks picks. However, it would depend largely on whether Atlanta is forced to trade Young or whether he decides to leave in free agency after next season.

Ultimately, the Spurs can't bank on the Hawks being bad the next two seasons in hopes of getting good picks from Atlanta. Their best bet is that Young is either traded during the season or signs elsewhere after next season.

In the meantime, the Spurs should instead focus on internal development to maximize their young talent so they won't rely on the Hawks to net them top prospects.