Spurs vindicated for draft day trade as ignored guard struggles on rival team

The San Antonio Spurs made a controversial draft day trade in 2024 that gave up a Top-10 pick. As Rob Dillingham struggles to break through on the Minnesota Timberwolves, the Spurs have to feel vindicated for their decision.

The 2024 NBA Draft was going to be the worst class in years; that was the conversation for months (years, even) heading into draft night in June. The Spurs were in a unique place; they had fleeced the Toronto Raptors out of a first-round pick by trading them Jakob Poeltl, and that pick landed at No. 8. Armed with their own 4th-overall pick, San Antonio had two Top-10 picks, but in the worst draft of the decade.

The Spurs therefore made the decision to trade that No. 8 pick to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota, limited financially by massive contracts to its core players, wanted to add a point guard of the future at a low cost. Their creative solution was to trade a future first-round pick and a first-round swap (in 2031 and 2030, respectively) for the Spurs' No. 8 pick in 2024.

The decision for the Spurs was whether to value the addition of another young piece to their core, albeit from a weak draft class, over the long-term upside that one of those picks in 2030 or 2031 produces a top pick in a stronger class -- the kind of decision a front office only makes if they have incredible job security, and if they truly do believe a future star is not sitting on the board at pick No. 8.

That is not an easy decision to make, and many front offices refuse to make it. A similar situation unfolded in 2025's draft, where the New Orleans Pelicans were offering a significant trade return to move back up into the late lottery, but teams like the Phoenix Suns and Chicago Bulls believed in the upside of the players left on the board above the upside of the draft pick the Pelicans were offering. They will likely be proven wrong for their decision.

Will the Spurs be proven wrong for theirs? While there is plenty of time for the trade to play out, and those picks in 2030 and 2031 are still on the distant horizon, some vindication is already coming to the Spurs' way. The reason? Rob Dillingham doesn't look like a future NBA star -- or perhaps even a long-term NBA rotation player.

Rob Dillingham is struggling to start his career

An interesting thing has happened. The belief that the 2024 draft class was relatively without stars has born out; there may not even be an All-Star who emerges from the bunch. But the class has actually produced an extremely high number of starters and rotation players, from the top of the draft all the way through to the second round.

From a top 5 that all look like long-term starters in the league (including Stephon Castle trying to prove his doubters wrong after going No. 4) down through Zach Edey and Kel'el Ware late in the lottery all the way to Cam Spencer, Quenten Post, Jaylen Wells and Ajay Mitchell in the second round.

When the Spurs moved off of the No. 8 pick, the Timberwolves used the pick on Kentucky guard Rob Dillingham. His shooting and speed were supposed to be his path to overcoming his short stature and defensive limitations, and with the length the Timberwolves had across the roster he was set up to flourish.

Instead, Dillingham has flopped. The Wolves are in desperate need at point guard with Nickeil Alexander-Walker now in Atlanta and Mike Conley showing his age at 38 years old. Yet when they need him the most, Dillingham cannot get off the bench.

The second-year guard is playing just 10.5 minutes per game, shooting 30.4 percent from 3-point range (bad) and only 37.7 percent from 2-point range (bottom of the league bad). He can't even hit free throws, shooting 60.2 percent from the line for his career. He is a decent enough passer, and his speed does catch defenders off guard at times, but those flashes are few and far between. Everything else? It's rough.

The Timberwolves are 12.3 points per 100 possessions worse when Dillingham enters the game, per Databallr.com. That is a massive swing, one that only the very worst players can manage. He is still young, but the early returns have been simply awful.

By making their draft day trade, the Spurs bet on upside that one of those years they will get back a valuable first-round pick. And at the same time, one of their chief rivals in the Western Conference has been made worse in the present and the future.

A controversial move at the time is turning up Spurs. They said no to Dillingham as their point guard of the future, and instead now have De'Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper in the fold, while Dillingham is flopping on a rival team. It's the ultimate vindication for a Spurs front office that is piling up victories.