Spurs' looming Jeremy Sochan decision could quickly turn into a nightmare

Lost in the NBA Draft hype and trade buzz is the offseason development of San Antonio Spurs player Jeremy Sochan. Sochan has slowly progressed over the first three seasons of his career, but he did make important tweaks to his game last season.

While his jumper didn't progress, he dramatically improved his finishing ability and minimized his 3-point attempts, which improved his efficiency. Still, his ceiling is tied to his 3-point shooting, which is his swing skill.

With Sochan eligible for an extension, the Spurs will have to figure out how to assess his value properly. Finding the right extension price for Sochan will be tricky, since it's so dependent on whether he will become a good shooter.

What would a Jeremy Sochan extension look like?

There is a chance that the Spurs opt to let the market decide how much Sochan is worth in restricted free agency. Then again, that comes with the risk that another team offers him a ridiculous deal that the Spurs would be forced to match or, otherwise, let him walk.

The safer option would be for the Spurs to sign him and hope that he can exceed the deal. That would likely only happen if he develops into a capable shooter.

Then they would likely be getting him a fantastic contract. If they do and he doesn't, then his contract may not look nearly as good. Therefore, a deal with incentives might be the ideal compromise.

The Spurs could potentially offer a 4-year, $80 million contract with $74 million guaranteed. They could add incentives for things such as games played, with him having to play 66 games to earn a bonus between $500,000 and $1 million.

Additionally, they could add a similar yearly incentive if he were to hit at least 35% from three. That would be a reasonable option for both sides, with Sochan currently unlikely to get that amount were he to hit restricted free agency, while the Spurs hope that he can dramatically outperform that contract.

After all, the first year of a potential contract extension would be roughly equivalent to 11.7% of the salary cap. That would be in line with a second-unit player. But if he can emerge as a respectable shooter, then he'd be an above-average starter.

Would Jeremy Sochan agree to the extension?

$80 million with incentives seems more than fair, given his production so far. Still, given how pricey rookie extensions have gotten, Sochan and his agent may expect more. That could lead to the Spurs and Sochan failing to agree to a contract extension and him hitting restricted free agency next summer.

Then again, the Spurs have a recent history of getting players eligible for rookie extensions to agree to a contract, thus avoiding restricted free agency altogether. Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, and Devin Vassell all agreed to an extension, and Sochan could be the next Spur in line.

All told, finding the right price on an extension with Sochan could prove extremely difficult. Hopefully, the two sides could work out an extension worth up to $80 million with incentives. That would avoid restricted free agency and give Sochan a contract that he can potentially outperform.