Spurs have nearly foolproof plan to completely stop Blazers' biggest threat

Portland Trail Blazers star Deni Avdija was second in the NBA in free-throw attempts per game during the regular season, getting to the line 9.2 times and trailing only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in that category. Say what you want about foul-baiting, but Avdija is 6-foot-8 with real handles, elite strength, and drives more than anyone else in the league (19.4 times per game). His ability to draw contact is a real skill, whether it makes for aesthetically pleasing basketball or not.

Againt the Spurs in the playoffs, that skill will be nearly eliminated. With Victor Wembanyama, the league's best shot blocker, waiting in the paint, and the referees (likely) letting more contact go as we are now in the postseason, Avdija probably won't be able to live at the the line like he did in the regular season.

It's also Avdija's first playoff series; he's not going to wilt under the pressure, but an already bad matchup for the Blazers could be compounded by a more physical brand of basketball the Spurs are more than willing to play (even though it's many of their first playoff series, too).

Victor Wembanyama and playoff game flow should limit Deni Avdija

He won't be completely taken out of games. Avdija isn't a one-trick pony, and stopping his outside shooting and playmaking will still obviously be crucial for the Spurs. But he makes his money by being aggressive and challenging opponents in the paint. That's not really an option against The Alien.

The Trail Blazers shoot more 3-pointers than almost anyone, and miss more 3-pointers than almost anyone. Granted, two of the team's best scorers, Jerami Grant and Shaedon Sharpe, are back in the lineup after missing extended time, so the Blazers will likely shoot a little better than the stats suggest. Still, they are at their best when Avdija and others are driving to the hoop and Donovan Clingan is crashing the boards.

Against the Spurs and Wemby, they will be forced to either double down on trying to be a 3-point shooting team, or try their luck taking the ball into the paint where Wemby will be waiting. Neither particularly sounds like a winning strategy for Portland, and that's good news for Spurs fans.

Portland doesn't mind making games ugly; actually, they would probably prefer a slow, grind-out game involving lots of free throws. If the Spurs can prevent that (and prevent Avdija specifically from drawing fouls from Wemby), it could be a quick, relatively painless series.

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