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Spurs' chances to blow Timberwolves series wide open are better than you think

There were soooooo many open shots.
Apr 28, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) reacts after guard Dylan Harper (2) scored during the first half of game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Portland Trail Blazers at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images
Apr 28, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle (5) reacts after guard Dylan Harper (2) scored during the first half of game five of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs against the Portland Trail Blazers at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-Imagn Images | Scott Wachter-Imagn Images

When watching Game One of the Western Conference Semifinals between the Spurs and Timberwolves, fans had to be scratching their heads at the number of misses San Antonio had on what seemed to be open looks. Sometimes it can be hard to judge in real time, but there were a ton of makeable attempts that just didn't go down. Turns out the stats back up what our eyes told us.

The Silver and Black have one of the best offenses in the league for a reason. They didn't stumble into success in the last month. There was consistent dominance all year, except for their worst month: January. That can easily be chalked up to midseason woes, though. They'll succeed because they've built the habits to do so, and consistency plays a factor.

The Spurs should be trusted to live up to their reputation

Matchups matter in the playoffs more than any other time of year, so we have to acknowledge that, but the Spurs have been the better team for the whole season. You could see it in spurts in Game One when San Antonio maintained the lead for the majority of the first half, despite playing horrific basketball.

Their miscues continued into the second half, and yet the Timberwolves couldn't create any separation. Their biggest lead was seven, and that got cut down quickly when the game was on the line, and San Antonio ended up with the last shot to win the contest. We've heard way too much about Minnesota winning the first meeting without playing their best ball, but I disagree with that assessment.

The visitors shot 39% from three and scored 54 points in the paint. They got 18 points from Anthony Edwards when he wasn't even expected to play. Jaden McDaniels got himself into foul trouble, but he still played over 35 minutes and scored 16 points on 7/14 FG. Mike Conley shot 4/7 3PT, and Naz Reid went 5/8, while putting in 2/3 from three himself.

They had plenty of things go their way, including a more than questionable whistle that led to Stephon Castle fouling out. If anyone played an uncharacteristic game, it was the Spurs, and it's not particularly close. San Antonio is a much more efficient team than what they showed on Monday night, and the stats above prove that had little to do with Minnesota's defense.

They'll recover tonight. They always do. This team hasn't lost back-to-back games since early January, and the Timberwolves didn't show anything to make you believe they can change that.

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