Red alert caution revealed for lottery prospect Spurs fans seem confused about

NBA lifer John Hollinger has been around for a long time, so when he writes a somewhat scathing report on a prospect like Ace Bailey (paywall), I pay close attention to it. Bailey is the projected number three pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and if he goes to the 76ers or anybody else, that's fine with me.

But Spurs fans have been discussing whether Brian Wright should use the second overall pick on the Rutgers forward, and this scouting report should answer that question definitively.

"Bailey is in my top 20 because the good plays were mouth-watering... But the fact that Bailey can sometimes make difficult shots doesn’t mean he should routinely attempt them as Plan A," Hollinger wrote. He then referred to the Scarlet Knight as a "half-baked Jabari Smith." That's not the kind of player the Silver and Black need right now.

Drafting for need over value gets teams in trouble

A long, athletic wing who could shoot threes would be nice, but there's a lot more to what this team needs than that. Ace may very well end up as a great player, but he has eyebrow-raising flaws that can't be ignored.

His shot selection is questionable, at best, and that highlights a low basketball IQ. I can't tell you how frustrated it makes me to watch players with a lack of feel make poor decision after poor decision on the court. San Antonio doesn't need that in their rotation.

It's good to have a player who can hit tough shots. Devin Vassell's tough shot-making ability is one of the reasons fans were excited about what he could do as he continued to grow. Tough shots are going to be a part of any player's journey through the league. It's extremely competitive like that. Just look at the defense OKC has been playing on Denver to close them out in Game 7.

Hitting difficult shots is part of the gig, but that shouldn't be your default because you lack the ability to beat your man every night. Bailey has trouble getting to the rim, so he settles for some of the worst attempts you'll see from a player. When he hits them, it looks tremendous, but when he whiffs, you want to pull your hair out.

The concerning part is that he was recently interviewed during the combine, and he doubled down on his shot selection.

There's nothing wrong with being confident, and that's mainly what he was speaking on, but his mention of bad shots tells us that he's heard the criticism. Basketball is hard enough without settling for difficult jumpers because you think you're good at them. Finding the way to make the simple play for the easy look will get players much further.

Dylan Harper is more suited for that. He understands how to get good looks off, he can beat his man off the dribble, and he's a smart player. There's a reason why Harper is the consensus number two prospect in the draft. There's no reason for the Spurs to overthink this. Draft Harper.