Predicting the San Antonio Spurs record to end season & lottery odds

The San Antonio Spurs currently find themselves with the ninth-worst record in the NBA but are in a dogfight to preserve their lottery position. A worse record would give them higher lottery odds, including a chance to see their pick jump into the top four of this year's draft.

With every NBA team having fewer than 13 games remaining and less than a month to go in the season, we won't have to wait long to see where the Spurs end up in the final standings.

San Antonio has the third-hardest remaining schedule according to Tankathon, and according to ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), they are projected to win just two of their remaining 12 games. Even so, they have won three straight games and have played noticeably better lately.

That potentially increases their chances of stealing a couple of games that they probably shouldn't win. Where they actually end up is anyone's guess, but we will attempt to do just that by predicting where the Spurs will pick in the lottery.

Predicting the San Antonio Spurs record to end season & lottery odds

With San Antonio having a brutal closing schedule, they should be able to put some separation between them and the next three closest teams to them in the standings.

The Chicago Bulls, Portland Trail Blazers, and Miami Heat are all within a game of the Spurs, with the Bulls and Blazers having one more win and one more loss than San Antonio. Meanwhile, the Heat have one fewer win and two more losses.

Based on the Spurs' remaining schedule, ESPN's BPI sounds about right, with their only potential remaining wins coming at home against the Miami Heat and Phoenix Suns.

Then again, the Heat and Suns will likely still be playing for a spot in the play-in tournament with neither having an incentive to tank. The Heat would lose their 2026 and 2028 first-round picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Charlotte Hornets if they were to miss the playoffs.

Phoenix also doesn't own their pick this year, and that likely means that there are no gimmes left on San Antonio's schedule. Still, losing 12 straight games to end this season seems unlikely. Even so, they are all but certain to make up ground in the standings and finish with a worse record than they currently have now.

As a result, San Antonio should end up with the 8th-worst record in the NBA, which would give them a 6% chance at the number one pick and a 26.2% chance at a top-four pick.

Given that this year's draft has been seen as a top-heavy draft class, even a 26.2% chance at a top-four pick is worth bottoming out for. Even if the Spurs miss out on jumping up into the top four in the lottery, picking eighth could still net them a future rotation player or starter that may help them get back into contention sooner rather than later.