Spurs vs. Heat NBA expert prediction and odds for Wednesday, Feb. 7 (Can Spurs cover?)

The San Antonio Spurs had a few days off before they started a road trip on the East Coast, beginning in Miami on Wednesday night. 

San Antonio has dropped four games in a row, falling to last in the Western Conference by five games. It’s certainly not where the Spurs want to be, and they find themselves as underdogs in Miami tonight. 

The Heat picked up a blowout win over the Orlando Magic – a much-needed win for a team that has struggled in 2024. The Heat finally got a good game from new acquisition Terry Rozier, who finished with 18 points, six rebounds and seven assists on 7-of-12 shooting. 

Victor Wembanyama and company will look to play spoiler against a Miami team that is 10-10 ATS as a home favorite this season, but can they do it?

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Let’s dive into the latest odds and my best bet for this matchup: 

Spurs vs. Heat odds, spread and total

Spurs vs. Heat how to watch

• Date: Wednesday, Feb. 7
• Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Kaseya Center
• How to watch (TV): Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Southwest
• Spurs record: 10-40
• Heat record: 27-24

Spurs vs. Heat injury reports

Spurs injury report

• Dominick Barlow – out
• Charles Bassey – out
• Sidy Cissoko – out
• David Duke Jr. – out
• Mamadi Diakite – out

Heat injury report

• Not submitted yet

Spurs vs. Heat key players to watch

San Antonio Spurs

Victor Wembanyama: The No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft is looking more and more like the Rookie of the Year every day, averaging 23.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 3.2 blocks per game since the start of 2024. Wemby has been held short of 20 points in two games in a row, which snapped a 10-game streak he had put together. Does he get back on track against one of the league’s best defensive centers Bam Adebayo? 

Miami Heat

Terry Rozier: Rozier was shooting just 32.9 percent from the field and 21.9 percent from 3 across seven games with the Heat, but he turned in by far his best showing in Miami on Tuesday night. Rozier hit 2-of-4 shots from 3 and 7-of-12 from the field on his way to an 18-point game. If he starts playing better, Miami will be tough to deal with. 

Spurs vs. Heat prediction and pick

Call me crazy, but I think the Spurs can cover the spread in this game, especially with how Miami has played as of late. 

Over their last 10 games, the Heat are 25th in the NBA in net rating, one spot behind the Spurs (24th). That’s shocking, but Miami dealt with a seven-game losing streak earlier this year, which certainly has contributed to the team's poor numbers as of late. 

The Heat are 10-10 ATS as home favorites, but they’re awful on the second night of back-to-backs, going just 1-4-1 ATS. 

Now, the Spurs aren’t elite at covering as road underdogs (11-12 ATS), but I have a hard time laying this many points with Miami when it ranks 27th in the league in points per game. 

The Heat have struggled on offense, and their defense hasn’t been nearly as elite as we’ve come to expect from an Erik Spoelstra group, ranking 14th in the league in its last 10 games. 

I lean with the Spurs to keep this game close as the number is already climbing towards Miami after opening at Heat -7.5. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.