Confusing Rookie of the Year forecast disrespects Stephon Castle

In the weeks and months leading up to the 2024 NBA Draft, the class of '24 was widely criticized for its lack of blue-chip talent. There were plenty of talented players, sure. But none of them popped quite like the top talent in other draft classes.

Criticism aside, the San Antonio Spurs should feel great about their selection of Stephon Castle with the fourth overall pick. The UConn freshman was one of the best defenders in this class and fit an immense area of need for the Spurs.

We didn't see much from Castle in the 2K25 Las Vegas Summer League. He played just one game against Portland before bowing out of the remainder of the games with a wrist injury that does not appear serious. But what we saw in that one game only affirmed what Spurs fans have believed for a while—this kid is going to be freaking awesome.

Castle's Summer League explosion not translating to ROTY odds

Castle showed up with his typical hounding defense, created for himself and others, and looked very comfortable operating in the pick-and-roll and shooting threes from NBA range. Overall, it was a very impressive, albeit brief, showing for the Spurs' rookie point guard.

That one Summer League game might have done its part to rile up an already excited Spurs fanbase, but oddsmakers didn't seem to care a lick. FanDuel still only gives Castle the fifth-best odds (+1000) to win Rookie of the Year, tying him with Matas Buzelis and Dalton Knecht. They have Zach Edey first (+600), followed by Reed Sheppard (+700), Alexander Sarr (+750), and Zaccharie Risacher (+800).

This isn't a rip at Edey, Sheppard, Sarr, or any of the other rookies who have better odds than Castle. But I do think FanDuel is overlooking Castle with those odds. He might not be a starter in the rotation like Edey or Risacher, but Castle is very well-positioned to build a narrative that voters fall in love with.

Castle is going to play; that much is already clear. What makes or breaks his ROTY candidacy is what that means for San Antonio's record. If Castle can learn from Chris Paul, work with Victor Wembanyama to shore up San Antonio's anemic defense and help push the Spurs to a 40+ win season, he'll have a pretty strong case. None of that seems particularly unreasonable!

Castle faces an uphill climb to helping the Spurs bring home back-to-back Rookie of the Year awards, but having him a distant fifth in preseason odds is a bit disrespectful. We'll have to wait until the season starts to see if FanDuel knows something that the rest of us don't.