Keldon Johnson's Spurs future hinges on career-defining question

San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson has experienced a shocking decline in playing time over the course of his six seasons with the franchise. From 32.7 minutes per game in 2022-23 to just 23.9 in 2024-25, questions have inevitably arisen about how much longer he'll remain in San Antonio.

If Johnson is going to secure more playing time and a stronger sense of job security, then he'll need to prove that he can provide off-ball value to a vastly different roster in 2025-26.

There was a time when it seemed as though Johnson was destined to become an All-Star. He won an Olympic gold medal with Team USA, turned in a compelling 2021-22 campaign that saw him make a significant leap as a scorer, and possesses the physical attributes of a high-level two-way player.

Still just 25 years of age, the door is open for Johnson to make another leap and realize his potential—it simply may not transpire in San Antonio if he doesn't change his game.

Unfortunately, one of the key elements of what made Johnson's 2021-22 season so encouraging has been lost: His jump shot. He averaged 17.0 points on 39.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc that year, thus seemingly displaying the ability to shoot at an elite level.

Johnson averaged 22.0 points per game the following season, but shot 32.9 percent from distance—a trend that's continued and may soon prematurely end his Spurs career.

Can Keldon Johnson provide sufficient value as an off-ball player?

San Antonio has made drastic adjustments to its roster over the past six months. That includes trading for All-NBA point guard De'Aaron Fox and drafting playmaker Dylan Harper. Compounded by the emergence of Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle, the dynamic has changed.

The Spurs now have three backcourt players who project to have the ball in their hands on a regular basis in 2025-26—and none of them are particularly efficient shooters.

Castle shot 28.5 percent from beyond the arc as a rookie, while Fox is a career 33.0 percent shooter from three-point range. Harper, meanwhile, shot just 33.3 percent from distance during his freshman season with the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

That creates an abundance of questions for head coach Mitch Johnson to answer in regard to the feasibility of that trio coexisting, but it also puts pressure on the supporting players to fix their flaws.

Johnson is chief among those facing a laundry list of concerns. His 39.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc in 2021-22 looks more like the ultimate outlier with every passing season, as he's yet to shoot better than 34.6 percent in any other year but his rookie campaign—when he played 17 games.

Even the 34.6 percent mark that Johnson posted in 2023-24 appears higher than what the Spurs can realistically expect considering he's shot 33.1, 32.9, and 31.8 percent in his three other full seasons.

Spurs need efficient shooters to complement inefficient playmakers

In the event that Johnson can shoot even somewhat efficiently from distance, his value would instantly increase. He could be positioned to operate in an off-ball role alongside three high-volume playmakers and an all-world scorer in Victor Wembanyama.

Hope certainly exists that such a scenario can materialize, as Johnson shot a respectable 36.0 percent on catch-and-shoot threes as recently as 2023-24.

Perhaps it's unfair to put pressure on Johnson to improve in a single area of the game when there are other ways he impacts winning. The harsh reality, however, is that the Spurs have committed to a vision that requires wings to measure up to a certain skill level in order to adequately compete.

For Johnson and the other wings on the roster, that means spacing the floor at a high enough level to permit the slashing guards to maximize their value.

Considering Johnson buried just 30.3 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes in 2024-25, there's reason for concern. Factoring in that he shot 52.5 percent on drives, however, there's clearly value to explore—if he enables the coaching staff to do so.

If Johnson can provide efficient floor-spacing in 2025-26, his areas of strength may finally be accentuated again on a team with realistic postseason aspirations.