Julian Champagnie's shot chart says Devin Vassell loses his job in a three-guard lineup

Spurs Nation will find out what Mitch Johnson has in store for the starting lineup soon enough, with preseason game number one right around the corner, but recent tea leaves indicate the three-guard group will be a part of it. If that's the case, then Julian Champagnie's floor spacing ability demands he be the fifth member of the opening unit.

Champagnie has more range to his range than Vassell

San Antonio will hope their guards all improve enough as shooters to make playing together seamless, but they're all still drivers at heart. Spacing will be as important as ever, and Champagnie shot just slightly better than Vassell last season, playoffs included (38.4% to 38.1%). Juju is the taller player, a better rebounder, and he's a bit more complete around the arc.

Champ shot above 37% from three spots on the floor last year—the left corner (42%), the left wing (39.2%), and the right wing (38.9%)— and those three zones alone accounted for 75% of his total three-point attempts. Vassell has two: the right wing and the right corner, both at 40.8%. Those two spots make up exactly half of his threes. The other half comes from places he hasn't hit above a 37% clip.

That gap matters more than the percentages do when you're surrounding three drivers. A spacer in that lineup doesn't get to pick his spot. He ends up wherever the collapse leaves him. Both of Dev's reliable looks live on the right side, so one defensive shade takes away both of the looks he actually makes at a high percentage. Juju's two best zones cover both sides.

Fox isn't the one who pays for this

Everyone frames the three-guard lineup as a referendum on De'Aaron Fox, but that isn't so. Swipa is on a max deal that runs through 2029-30, and the Spurs have said publicly and privately that he's not available. Promoting Dylan Harper won't cost Fox his job, but it will cost Vassell his.

The idea of putting Dev on the bench after the season and playoff run he had is absurd, and when you remember that he'll be the second-highest-paid player on the team ($27.5M), it seems even crazier. That's how the cookie seems to be crumbling, though, and I'm not sure the fanbase has realized it yet.

San Antonio is hard-capped at the first apron with roughly $7.5 million of breathing room, so there's no clever way to fix this logjam through the accounting department. Someone's minutes have to get cut, and the math points to him.

The bench was Harper's group

Quite honestly, this works out for the bench unit. That group was fairly strong, but it was the Harper show, as he accounted for 28% of their scoring, and he was the only reserve who averaged more than eight points in the playoffs.

Promote him, and you've gutted what made them so effective. Tobias Harris and Vassell are how you replace it, and up their three-point volume. Dev alone took 6.4 threes a game, which is about half of what the entire Spurs bench attempted. The bench mob's biggest weakness was the very thing No. 24's game fixes.

Despite possibly starting all three major guards, I anticipate Coach Johnson will ensure at least one of them is on the floor at all times. Insert one of them alongside some combination of Dev, Harris, Carter Bryant, Keldon Johnson, Luke Kornet, and/or Tarris Reed Jr., and you have another starting lineup ready to go.

The more I talk about it, the more I start to like it... I think. It could just be my relentless optimism.

(Stats via 3stepsbasket.com)

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