Disrespectful stat undervaluing Vassell's contract doesn't tell full story

I don't think anyone inside the San Antonio Spurs organization or watching from the outside would say they're thrilled with how Devin Vassell's season has gone. The fifth-year pro has been much like the Spurs themselves; up and down, one good game is often followed quickly by steps in the other direction.

To be fair to Dev, he's had a rough start to the season that wasn't entirely of his own making. He spent most of the summer recovering from surgery on his foot and didn't play until November. Even then, he logged just four games before missing even more time.

He's had nights where he's been downright terrible. A 2/11 shooting night against Minnesota, a 2/8 outing against the Pacers, a 1/9 brick-fest in New Orleans—you don't have to look hard to pick out his off nights.

Vassell's haters will be quick to point to his poor shooting nights, but they overlook the eruptions. Just this year, he became the only player in Spurs history to put up 35 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, and 5 threes when he torched the Brooklyn Nets just over a month ago.

Devin's up-and-down season has led some to go as far as to say his long-term future in San Antonio should be in question. They point to roughly $27 million a year he's owed and say that money would be better spent elsewhere. But just looking at the bad games and the balance sheet doesn't tell the full story.

Vassell's value deal shouldn't be moved off the Spurs books anytime soon

Mat Issa, a contributor for Forbes, Fansided, and other media outlets, recently tweeted a graphic that put Dev's contract under the microscope. He has a formula that put Vassell's positional value this year at $9.3 million on a contract that pays him just over $29 million this season, a -$20 million swing in the wrong direction.

Issa had another post outlining his methodology here. The methodology essentially takes Estimated Wins added by each player, the value of a win ($3.4 million), and uses that to get to an output of monetary production value. It's not an exact science, but it is an interesting way to look at any player's value.

What Issa's model ignores, as far as I can tell, is the outside context of any player's situation. Vassell spent the first couple of weeks ramping back up from his time recovering from surgery. He spent most of the summer in rehab from foot surgery. Obviously, it was going to take him time to get his conditioning back to game shape.

Furthermore, the model seems to ignore the context around the team itself. The Spurs clearly viewed this year as another step in their rebuild.

They've empowered players to take risks. They've moved pieces around, shifting Keldon Johnson to the bench. They lost Victor Wembanyama in late February. They've been playing the entire season without their head coach. This season hasn't been anything like what we expected in October, so forgive me if I grant Dev some leniency on his sub-par play.

Other players on Issa's worst non-injury contracts list include NBA Champion and Finals MVP Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant, with Devin Booker, Steph Curry, and Trae Young making his "Dishonorable Mentions" list. You cannot sit there with a straight face and tell me Steph Curry has one of the worst contracts in the NBA.

Has Vassell underplayed relative to his contract value for this season? Sure. But that doesn't mean the Spurs should trade him anytime soon.

The nice thing about Devo's deal is that it stays flat over the next four seasons and even decreases to just under $25 million in '27-28. That means that as the salary cap continues to increase, the percentage of the Spurs' salary allocated to Vassell will decrease. That's an edge and part of the reason Spurs fans were so excited when he originally signed this deal.

Don't let one down year ruin your opinion of Devin and his future in San Antonio. No one is thrilled with how he's played this season, but be patient. Let's get at least a quarter of seeing how he, Stephon Castle, De'Aaron Fox, and Vic meld before making any firm determinations. Until then, I'll happily ignore what a flawed, albeit interesting, model says about his value in San Antonio.