Buying and selling the 6 Western Conference teams standing in the Spurs’ way

If you were to check the standings, you'd see several undefeated teams a week into the season, with San Antonio sitting in seventh, but don't believe your lying eyes. Not everyone is who they say they are. Houston, Memphis, Portland, and Oklahoma City are all unbeaten, but there's nuance to every one of their situations that can't be ignored.

The Spurs have dropped two games, with the Jazz and the Anthony Edwards-less Timberwolves coming up before another dance with Utah, so they should start generating some momentum. The board will get straightened out before long, so before anybody crowns anybody, here's who I think is actually standing in San Antonio's way and who is just having a fun October.

Houston Rockets: Sell the idea that the Rockets are this good

This one may be a tough sell for the rest of you because the numbers say the Rockets own the best adjusted net rating in the league at plus-23.3 with an adjusted offense of 128.2. Nobody has been better than H-Town through a week. I picked them to finish third in the conference, but they're currently one of three unbeaten teams in the NBA, and I don't know about all of that.

Kevin Durant is 38 years old and logging 35.3 minutes a night. Those miles add up. He's scoring 23.5 on 53.7% FG and 47.1% 3PT, and I don't know what that looks like in May. Ime Udoka is a legitimately good coach, and this will be a good team in April. I'm just not an Alperen Sengun guy, and I don't believe his production holds up once the playoffs roll around.

Oklahoma City Thunder: Selling their championship aspirations

This is where the bill for trading Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe comes due. All three went out over the offseason for a bunch of second-round picks, and nobody came back the other way. Then Jalen Williams dislocated his ankle and fractured his fibula, Cason Wallace tore his labrum, and both need surgery. Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso are also battling injuries right now that have them out.

OKC is still 4-0 with one of the best defenses in basketball, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to win them a pile of regular-season games, but that's not the argument. This is about whether the Thunder are still a real title threat after losing so much depth, and I don't believe they are. At least, not as currently constructed. We'll see if Sam Presti makes a move. They certainly have the assets for it.

Memphis Grizzlies: Selling this is a top seed in the West

We all know that you can only play who's in front of you, but let's be clear about who's been in front of Memphis: Utah twice, Golden State, and Sacramento. Those three teams have a combined 2-10 record. Two of the four wins were by five and three points. Not exactly your run-of-the-mill powerhouses.

Ty Jerome is awesome, and I'm not going to pretend otherwise. But their adjusted net rating is plus-7.5, far and away the softest profile of any hot team out West. Cameron Boozer is shooting 29.5% from the field. I consider the Grizzlies one of the better bad teams, but they're still a bad team. That will catch up to them soon enough.

Portland Trail Blazers: Buying they're better than many thought

The Blazers have the best raw offensive rating in the NBA at 126.8 at the time of my writing this. The Ja Morant-Damian Lillard backcourt genuinely works and, even more surprisingly, the team's defense has been solid enough. They're currently 13th with a 109.9 rating. That's respectable and about as good as you can expect with those two starting together.

I highly doubt Morant and Toumani Camara will keep shooting 44.4% and 59.1% from three, but even when those numbers drop, Portland will have a strong offense. I don't know if their defense would survive a seven-game series once a good opponent has time to game plan against it, but I'd bet on their ability to put up points.

Los Angeles Lakers: Selling that this is a team to fear

This is a pretty easy sell for me. So many people love Luka Doncic, and I get it. He's one of the best offensive players we've ever seen, but that's just not going to be enough. The Lakers currently have the second-best offense in the NBA with a 126.7 rating, but they have the 22nd-ranked defense with a 117.6 rating. That showed up last night when the Trail Blazers put 136 on their heads.

That defense is going to be abysmal in December, and it will be trash in May. Their three wins have come against Golden State, the Clippers, and Utah. They'll win a bunch of games, get to the playoffs, and get exposed. Honestly, can we call it getting exposed if I'm predicting it right now? I guess it depends on what the consensus about them is when we get there.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Buying their incredible two-way ability

I was buying before Anthony Edwards went out, and I still am. The Wolves have a top-three defensive rating in the league at 100.5, along with a top-five offensive rating of 117.3. LaMelo is actually guarding people in Minnesota, Jaden McDaniels is hooping, starring in his role, and Ant was dropping 33.3 points on 40% from three like an MVP candidate.

Then Edwards needed surgery on his right knee, and he's expected to be out for up to two months. We won't see the same version of the Timberwolves with him sidelined, and that will cost them some regular-season wins, but he'll be back. If he returns healthy in January, Minnesota could be a big problem on both ends of the floor.

Nobody in the conference has run away with anything yet. We have a bunch of undefeated teams winning games against opponents who can't guard a parked car. The Silver and Black will have much more to say about the hierarchy of the West before long, and when the dust settles, I still expect them to sit on top.

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