We simulated the 2020 NBA Draft lottery 100 times for the San Antonio Spurs ahead of the real thing on Thursday — these are the final results.
For the first time since drafting Tim Duncan, the San Antonio Spurs need to pay attention to the NBA Draft lottery. On Thursday evening, the luck of the draw will determine where the Spurs select in a pivotal 2020 Draft. Striking gold would give San Antonio a great chance to take control of their future, but the odds aren’t necessarily in their favor.
In preparation for the 2020 NBA Draft lottery, we simulated the scenario 100 times for 100 different outcomes. While they say the Spurs’ chances are about 9 percent to jump into the top four, the final determination may not be so cut and dried. Using the lottery simulation provided by Tankathon. It showed that the No. 11 pick might be the most likely outcome for the Spurs, but it’s not definite.
San Antonio got the 11th pick in 72 simulations, affirming the though that this is the most likely outcome for this team. However, both Memphis and New Orleans jumped into the top of the lottery last season, so anything is possible. Still, they should be preparing for the common outcome that the eleventh pick in 2020 belongs to the Spurs.
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That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t do their due diligence — In 100 simulations, San Antonio jumped into the top-four 11 times, beating the odds that indicate there’s only an 11 percent chance they jump up. They won the No. 1 pick twice, affirming their 2 percent chance at the top selection, and matched that with two No. 2 selections. However, the Spurs had better luck with the No. 3 and No. 4 picks, getting the third pick four times and the fourth pick three times. Don’t be afraid to re-read that last sentence, because I know it can get a little bit confusing.
Unfortunately, the chances of the San Antonio Spurs falling in the NBA Draft lottery order is a serious possibility as well. They dropped to the twelfth pick in 16 of the 100 simulations with teams jumping ahead of them in the standings. In one simulation, they fell as far as No. 13, which is highly unlikely.
Still, it’s a serious possibility. Getting the 13th pick with the 11th best odds is the worst-case scenario for San Antonio, but it’s not the end of the world. If there’s any franchise you can depend on to snag some top-talent no matter where they pick, it’s this one.
We’ll update you on Thursday night when the NBA Draft lottery is officially decided and we know with absolute certainty where San Antonio’s pick falls.