The Spurs' path forward with new star is obvious—but not without risk

While the San Antonio Spurs' offseason has gone off without a hitch, they soon will have to make a tough decision that could dramatically impact their future plans. Spurs star De'Aaron Fox is eligible for a four-year, $223 million extension.

That would keep him under contract for the next 5 years, including the final year of his current deal, which runs through the end of next season. It previously seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Spurs would offer him a max extension. But with them drafting Dylan Harper second overall, it no longer makes sense for them to do so.

After all, Harper has drawn comparisons to Fox, but he is eight years younger and potentially has even more upside than Fox did at the same point in their careers. Signing Fox to a four-year extension would potentially come at the detriment of Harper and his development.

The Spurs must be careful with a De'Aaron Fox extension

However, NBA insider John Hollinger has some thoughts that could help the Spurs and even appeal to Fox as well. He mentioned the idea of the Spurs offering Fox a one-plus-one worth $113 million.

That would keep him under contract for at least two more years, including the final year of his current contract. But that deal would give him an out, with him being able to hit free agency again at age 29 with 10 years of experience. He would then qualify for a 35% max contract due to his experience, though he'd have to ball out to earn that.

Another idea he floated was a three-year $150 million extension with the third year being a player option. Each year would pay him a flat $50 million and would keep him with the Spurs for at least another three seasons, with him being able to opt out at 30 years old.

The Spurs' best option is clear with De'Aaron Fox

Given the two options that Hollinger laid out, the 3-year, $150 million extension makes the most sense. After all, the contract would be cheaper annually than it otherwise would be if he signed a 4-year max. It would also potentially end the year before Harper's extension kicks in.

That would allow the Spurs to move on from Fox without having to pay both. Or, of course, assuming that Fox holds his value, they could trade him before he potentially opts out or before the end of the final year of his 3-year extension.

His being under contract for fewer years means less risk and hopefully higher retrade value if things don't work out in San Antonio. In that case, San Antonio likely wouldn't get the same haul that they gave up for him.

But if he has moderate trade value, they could hope to get multiple rotation players and at least a first-round pick to help round out their roster around potentially Wembanyama, Castle, and Harper.

What is the best-case scenario for Fox and the Spurs?

The best-case scenario is that Fox is a legit co-star to Wembanyama, posting numbers that rival his peak years with the Sacramento Kings. Hopefully averaging around 22 points, 5 rebounds, and 5 assists per game.

Better still, if he, Harper, and Castle can play together, then San Antonio would have a unique perimeter attack with three slashers and playmakers. That would depend on whether Castle and Harper can be reliable shooters.

If they can, then the Spurs could even play Jeremy Sochan alongsidethem, giving them the perfect blend of shooting, playmaking, and defense.

All told, the Spurs have a big decision to make later this summer regarding Fox. Signing him to a flat 3-year, $150 million extension would give him and the Spurs four years to see if he can co-exist around their young core of Wembanyama, Castle, and Harper.