The Spurs' best and worst-case scenarios for 2022 NBA Draft Lottery
By Josh Paredes
The day of the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery is here, and the San Antonio Spurs will finally learn where they'll be picking with their first selection in June.
As Sam Quinn of CBS Sports broke down recently, the lottery only determines the order of the top four picks in the upcoming NBA Draft while the rest of the picks are ordered based on their record from worst to best. The teams with the worst records, of course, have greater odds of landing in those top four spots while every team in the bottom 14 has at least a one percent chance to sneak into the top four.
Per HoopsRumors.com, there are technically nine different spots in the lottery in which the Spurs can land. Realistically, the odds are very high that they won't slip beyond 11th, which was the spot in which they snagged Devin Vassell last year. Still, to cover all of our bases, let's look at what could possibly happen on Tuesday.
The Spurs' worst-case scenario in the NBA Draft Lottery
Although the odds are astronomical, NBA.com lists the Spurs dropping to 13th in the lottery with a greater than 0.0% chance. This chart also lists their odds of falling to 12th as 0.1, meaning a drop to 13th has even fewer odds of happening than 1 in 1,000. In other words, San Antonio landing somewhere in the top 11 on Tuesday should happen 999 times out of 1,000.
With that out of the way, San Antonio's odds of slipping to 11th is a bit more realistic as a worst-case scenario, as there's a 3% chance that could happen. There's also a nearly 26% chance they slip to 10th. For more on potential prospects in their projected range, you can visit our NBA Draft page for full coverage.
The Spurs' best-case scenario in the NBA Draft Lottery
This is simple: the Spurs' best-case scenario in the Draft Lottery is cashing in on their 4.5% chance of getting number one and having their pick of the litter on June 23rd. San Antonio famously lucked out in 1997 when they won the top pick with a 21.4% chance and drafted Tim Duncan. The odds have since changed to discourage tanking and make the process a bit fairer.
If the Spurs haven't yet been called out during the lottery broadcast by the 9th spot, that means they will have lucked into the top four and will have a shot at either Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero, Jabari Smith, or Jaden Ivey. Given Ivey's high-end talent yet questionable fit on a team full of guards, there would likely be speculation of a trade involving the Spurs if they end up fourth, but that's something to address if it actually happens.
San Antonio's 20.2% chance of a jump into the top four is their best shot at a huge win, but remaining at 9th would be the next-best scenario, and they'd likely find a player capable of contributing right away at that spot as well.
David Robinson will be representing the Spurs for the big event, which takes place on Tuesday, May 17th, at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN