ESPN 'most likely to improve and decline' list surprising for unexpected reason

The Spurs are going to improve. Anyone who understands trajectory and talent could tell you that San Antonio should make a significant leap this year due to several factors. The youngest roster in the league, which includes Victor Wembanyama, will take a step forward. Stephon Castle is one of the most NBA-ready players from the draft, and the vets will help the guys mature on the floor.

The last time the Detroit Pistons made the playoffs was the 2018-19 season. Since then, they've been in the bottom three in the Eastern Conference—the last two years, they finished last. It feels like the only place they can go is up, so their place on the list is reasonable, as is the Memphis Grizzlies, who will get Ja Morant back this season. None of this is surprising. What's shocking is the other side.

The Western Conference is making room for San Antonio

All three teams listed as likely to decline this season are in the Western Conference. NBA writer Kevin Pelton predicts the LA Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, and Minnesota Timberwolves will take a step back. While it isn't that shocking to see both LA teams on this list, including the Timberwolves is very unexpected.

The reason he listed in his ESPN article referred to their fortunate health last year. The Timberwolves were one of the healthiest teams in the league. They made a deep playoff run, and a couple of their guys played in the Olympics, putting extra wear and tear on their bodies.

It's a legitimate concern, as teams are expected to deal with adversity in some way due to the injury bug. Those who skate it for longer than usual tend to regress to the mean

Meanwhile, Tim McMahon makes a great point about the Denver Nuggets. They already weren't as good last year as in the previous season when they won the championship. They lost Bruce Brown last offseason, and this year, they let Kentavious Caldwell-Pope go. Those are the kind of two-way role players you need for a complete team, and Russell Westbrook doesn't bring what they had.

There are a few teams at the bottom of the Western Conference, like the Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets, that San Antonio should leapfrog naturally, but if a few more teams take a step back than originally expected, the Spurs could end up with more wins than projected.

Most sites project the Silver and Black to land somewhere around 36 wins, but that could be lowballing it if these guys are right.