Revisiting Wembanyama preseason predictions after history-making rookie season

The San Antonio Spurs again find themselves at home watching the NBA playoffs. But, unlike last season, there is reason to believe that they can make the postseason next year. That reason to believe is Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama, who made an immediate impact on the team.

Not just that, but he has given San Antonio the closest thing that they have had to a superstar since he, who will not be named, forced a trade and was shipped to the Toronto Raptors. The importance of that can't be overstated, given how aimless the Spurs have looked at times since that 2019 trade.

We all know that Wembanyama had a terrific rookie season and gave Spurs fans reasons for optimism, but how did he live up to the preseason expectations that were set for him? In August of last year, I wrote an article predicting how Wembanyama would finish in five key statistical categories ahead of his much-anticipated rookie season.

With the Spurs season over, now is as good of a time as any two to revisit those predictions and see which ones were proven accurate and which ones weren't. Up next, we'll start with a long-shot prediction and see how he ultimately fared.

Preseason prediction: Wembanyama will hit 100+ threes

Although Wembanyama was technically a below-average 3-point shooter this season, he managed to safely hit 100 threes. Actually, he finished the year with 128 made threes and became the first player in NBA history to record 250 blocks and hit at least 100 triples in a single season.

That is impressive, to say the least, and bodes well for him going forward. After all, many of his 3-point attempts were surprisingly difficult, contributing to his shooting 32.5% from deep. Even still, he was above average on pull-up threes and step-back threes, two of the hardest shots in the game.

That proves that he is a good shooter and capable of even more than he showed during his rookie season. Imagine Wembanyama being the first player to hit 200 threes and block 300 shots. That would be unpreceded but well within reach considering what he's shown thus far.

Not only that, but his shooting ability as well as his rim protection could make them the perfect stretch five and give the Spurs a massive advantage. After all, San Antonio has struggled in recent years to take enough threes to keep pace with the rest of the league. However, with their center launching 5.1 attempts on average in fewer than 30 minutes per game, the Spurs shouldn't have that issue.

Prediction: Correct

Preseason prediction: Wembanyama will average at least 3 assists per game

In retrospect, 3 assists per game was perhaps a low prediction for Wembanyama, though he also blew away expectations this season as a playmaker. Whether it be finding cutters while in the post, passing from the top of the key, or out of the short roll, it's clear that he has the court vision to be a great passer.

He will have to improve on his high turnover rate, and he likely will now that he knows which passes he can get away with. When he does, he could be a potent offensive weapon who can not only get buckets but also create for his teammates.

He may not turn into Nikola Jokic but perhaps Domantas Sabonis in terms of being relied on to generate easy shots for his surrounding cast. The Spurs have historically made great use of big men who can pass, and Tim Duncan might be the best example of what Wembanyama can be, although he was more of a stationary passer.

The Spurs probably won't use Wembanyama in quite the same way but having an elite-scoring big man who can also pick teams apart as a passer is useful. After what Wembanyama showed us, San Antonio can rely on him as a playmaker going forward too.

Prediction: Correct

Preseason prediction: Wembanyama will average 20.5 points per game 

One of the biggest questions surrounding Victor Wembanyama was how impactful he'd be on the offensive end in the NBA right out of the gate. The preseason expectations were for him to average 20.5 points per game, and he managed to meet even those seemingly lofty projections by averaging 21.4 during his rookie year.

In fact, he became just the 11th rookie in the last 25 years to pull off that feat. That is impressive, especially when looking at the players he's joined, including Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, Carmelo Anthony, and LeBron James. Wembanyama himself has stated that he isn't anywhere near his peak, and it might not be crazy to think that he could eventually join Robinson as a future scoring champion.

To do so, he'll need to improve his offensive efficiency after having a 52.8 true shooting percentage, but his high-volume 3-point shooting could eventually be a game-changer. Not only that, but he drew a surprisingly high number of free throws (5.2 per game) for someone who averaged under 30 minutes.

Better shooting from outside, living at the free throw line, combined with presumably better play in the post, and hopefully someone who can consistently toss him lobs could do wonders for his game and the Spurs offense. Better yet, based on his play as a rookie, all of those things are attainable.

Prediction: Correct

Preseason prediction: Wembanyama will finish in the top 3 in the NBA in blocks.

Back in August, I made the bold prediction that Wembanyama would rank in the top 3 in blocked shots. Little did I know that he would lead the NBA in blocks by a wide margin, averaging a staggering 3.6 while playing fewer than 30 minutes per game.

While my prediction was based on his block totals playing for Met92 compared to the recent league leaders in the NBA, he was somehow much better than even the most bullish projection. Not just that, but even as teams adjusted by picking their spots more at the rim, he was still able to swat shots at a monster rate.

Only Manute Bol and David Robinson averaged more blocks as rookies. With Wemby presumably playing closer to 32 minutes per game next season, he could conceivably become the first player since Dikembe Mutombo to average four rejections per game. The more minutes he plays next season, the better San Antonio's defense should be, and they were terrific in the minutes he was on the court.

For the Spurs to make strides in the win column, it starts with Wembanyama staying healthy and being a rim deterrent. We already know that he is a terrific shot blocker, but how was his health compared to offseason expectations?

Prediction: Correct

Preseason prediction: Wembanyama will play 70 games and average 30 mpg

There have been few players of Wembanyama's size to ever play in the NBA, let alone have a long and successful career. For every Mark Eaton, there are the likes of Gheorghe Muresan, Pavel Podkolzin, or even Yao Ming. Ming, who was initially among the most durable players in the NBA after only missing two games in his first three seasons, was forced into retirement due to a variety of injuries.

All that is to say is that Spurs fans were likely nervous to see how Wemby would hold up over the course of a long season. My offseason projection saw him play 70 games and average 30 minutes per game.

Of course, he tallied 71 games and averaged 29.7 minutes per game. My reasoning was that the Spurs would prioritize getting their franchise cornerstone through his rookie season rather than playing him big minutes. That was less of a bold prediction and more of seeing how the team has handled its players over the last decade. It's worked, and he made it through his rookie season in one piece.

The Spurs may not try to reinvent the wheel and attempt to do something similar next season. Especially with him playing in the Olympics, they will probably increase his minutes slightly and seek to have him play a few more games barring a significant injury. Ultimately, Wembanyama's health was the biggest question mark, but everything went according to plan.

Prediction: Mostly correct