5 Bold Stat predictions for Victor Wembanyama during his rookie season

After months of anticipation, the San Antonio Spurs were fortunate enough to draft Victor Wembanyama, and he will soon make his NBA debut. When he does, all eyes will be on him, and he will have near-impossible expectations to try and live up to. While the Spurs would undoubtedly welcome another rookie season like Hall of Famer David Robinson's or Tim Duncan's, Wembanyama is an entirely different animal.

He could be worse in some areas and better in others than they were out of the gate. Be that as it may, his success as a rookie will hinge on his health next season. An injury-plagued rookie year will lead to plenty of questions about whether he can withstand an 82-game regular season plus the playoffs.

On the flip side, if he can stay healthy, then odds are he can put up impressive numbers and quiet the trolls that are waiting to pounce on whatever Twitter is going by nowadays. But how good can a healthy Wembanyama be for San Antonio? Will his presence be enough to help the Spurs make the playoffs? And what might his per game number look like during his rookie season in the NBA?

5.) Wembanyama will hit 100+ threes next season

Part of Wembanyama's appeal, aside from the fact that he's 7'4, is his potential to be a stretch-five. He certainly isn't shy about taking threes, as evident by his launching 5.1 threes per game last season, which would be second to only Devin Vassell had he played for the Spurs then. Surprisingly, he shot only 32% from three, even though the 3-point line was shorter than the NBA's and he towered over his opponents.

Still, his form looks good, and he attempted and hit some difficult threes, suggesting that he is a better shooter than that percentage would indicate. NBA teams would surely prefer him to take as many threes as possible to keep from having to defend him in the paint. Even then, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich will surely figure out a way to balance Wembanyama's desire to play away from the basket while also utilizing the fact that the man is a giant.

Having him play power forward, which seems to be the game plan, is a good start, and teams will likely sag off him to start his NBA career, allowing him to gain confidence by potentially knocking down plenty of open threes to start. Based on that, I fully expect him to drain at least 100 threes next season.

4.) Wembanyama will average 3 assists per game

One of the more underrated aspects of Wembanyama's game is his passing, and that could be on full display in the Spurs' offense next season. Popovich's offenses have often featured big men with the ability to pass, including Duncan, Pau Gasol, Tiago Splitter, and more recently Jakob Poeltl. 3 assists don't seem like much of a prediction, but that is in line with the career averages of Duncan, Gasol, and other big men known for their passing.

With his size, it's kind of hard to have bad court vision, but if he is as good as he has shown as a playmaker, he could be used as an offensive hub in the NBA. Particularly as a passer in the post and out on the high post, even when double-teamed. The Spurs will also be sure to have spacing around him, with Vassell, Johnson, and Zach Collins likely to share the floor with Wembanyama.

They can also play him in lineups without a point guard, allowing San Antonio to put their best players around their new centerpiece, giving him plenty of options. The better he becomes, the more attention he will draw and the better his playmaking will be. It is definitely something to keep an eye on next season.

3.) Wembanyama will average 20.5 points per game

Being the number one pick in the draft comes with the expectation that Wembanyama will lead the team in scoring, but that might not be the case next season. While he is the most talented player on the Spurs roster, he may not lead the team in scoring. Instead, Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell, who combined to average more than 40 points per game last season, might both finish ahead of Wembanyama.

Johnson led all Spurs by averaging 22 points, and with better teammates and an offseason to work on his shot, he could improve upon that career high. Meanwhile, Vassell also had a career year last season but also played just 36 games. With better health and Wembanyama and Johnson to play off of, he too could crack 20 points per game next season and finish second on the team in scoring. 

To be clear, I expect Wembanyama to average 20.5 points per game, but he will have a learning curve that Johnson and Vassell both won't. He could also be on a minute's restriction to start the season, which could hamper his scoring efforts. Even then, if this prediction turns out to be true, the Spurs could have three 20-point scorers next season. That may or may not translate into wins, but it would definitely be a start.

2.) Wembanyama will finish in the top 3 in the NBA in blocks

Having a rookie crack the top-3 in any NBA stat seems like a bold prediction. Perhaps it is, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility for a player as talented as Wembanyama. Given that he is 7'4, has a huge 8'0 wingspan, and is mobile, Wembanyama has the potential to be a game-changer on the defensive end, even during his rookie season. Last season, Anthony Davis led the NBA in blocks with 3.1 per game, while Joel Embiid and Anthony Edwards finished second and third with 2 per game each.

In theory, Wembanyama would only need to average around 2 blocks next season to accomplish this goal. It is worth noting that Wemby blocked three shots per game last season in similar minutes to what he will likely play next season for the Spurs. And while he will spend time defending out on the perimeter, he has been known to block more than a few jumpers.

His length, size, and agility should also allow him to sag off some opposing power forwards and hang out near the paint, where he can alter and deter shots. As a result, he could very well be among the best shot blockers in the NBA next season.

1.) Wembanyama will play 70 games and averaged 30 mpg

A lot has been made about Wembanyama's rail-thin frame and how he will need to put on muscle to adapt to the NBA. That is likely true, but it won't happen overnight, so I fully expect the Spurs to have a minutes restriction and a game limit for him. Wemby being limited to about 30 minutes per game as opposed to the big minutes that other recent first-round picks have played is the smart play.
This is especially true because it minimizes the chances of a major or even nagging injury.

Additionally, despite Wembanyama not missing a game last season, it seems safe to say that he will be doing some load management, possibly to the tune of 12 games. 70 games played and 30 minutes per game for Wembanyama seem like reasonable goals. And if he reaches that, he could very well become the third Spurs player behind Robinson and Duncan to win Rookie of the Year.

Better still, it would give the team a much better chance of making the playoffs or the play-in, particularly if they are an above .500 team with Wembanyama and around .500 without him. That could mean playoff basketball for the Spurs for the first time since a game-seven loss to the Denver Nuggets back in 2019. It would also mean that Wembanyama is healthy heading into the summer, allowing him to build off his rookie season and hopefully make a big jump during his second season.