NBA Draft: Spurs would see Scoot Henderson as much more than consolation prize

With the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery only days away, and after taking the time to dive deep into some of the draft’s top prospects, including the Thompson twins, Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore, Taylor Hendricks, and others, it’s finally time to put the draft’s two most-hyped names under a microscope.

We’ve been hesitant all season long to talk about the two biggest names in this class—Scoot Henderson and Victor Wembanyama—and what they could bring to the Spurs because, well, the odds of them being in a Spurs uniform aren’t exactly in the team’s favor. San Antonio's odds of landing a top-two pick in the draft are only about 28%, meaning the chances of the Spurs selecting third overall in the draft or later is greater than 70%.

But there is a point when failing to entertain the possibility of having either player on the roster and showing fans what kind of impact they could have would be doing everyone a disservice. With the draft lottery right around the corner, that time has come, and we’re going to begin this conversation with a deeper dive into Henderson’s game.

There’s plenty of outstanding analysis on Henderson and Wembanyama out there, and I encourage fans to find that content and soak it all in. After all, these are two of the best draft prospects we’ve seen in quite a long time. But you’re likely here for Spurs content first and foremost, so this analysis will look at Henderson through a Silver and Black lens.

Here, we’ll go over Henderson’s strengths and areas for improvement moving forward. But we’ll also treat this as a team-building exercise and theorize about what kinds of players the Spurs may look to place around Henderson if they land him in the lottery, along with how the team’s current pieces fit next to him.

Scoot Henderson’s strengths

Before diving into Henderson’s skills, it’s worth examining his size and athleticism because some misconceptions have been floating around about these topics. Sticking around the league as an undersized guard has become increasingly difficult in the modern era. Without considering context, Henderson is right on the cusp of what many would consider “undersized” for a guard, as he stands at only about 6-foot-2.

Take it from someone who had the privilege of seeing Henderson play in person: there is nothing to be concerned about. For being only 6-foot-2, Henderson has a well-built frame and is a top-tier athlete in his own right. He’s a powerful leaper off one or two feet, has a quick first step and debatably even quicker second and third steps, moves well laterally on the perimeter, and has outstanding functional strength to absorb and repel contact. And perhaps just as importantly, he reportedly has a massive 6-foot-9 wingspan (only about one inch shorter than Dejounte Murray). 

Being an outstanding athlete with promising measurables isn’t enough to make a draft prospect as highly touted as Henderson is, though. In addition, Henderson is likely the most poised pick-and-roll guard in this class, as he’s capable of making and executing high-level passing reads and scoring on his own off screens, as he already has a strong midrange game that he can rely on when he can’t leverage his sheer athleticism to get to the bucket.

His blend of powerful above-the-rim finishes and soft-touch below the rim is incredibly impressive for his age. He constantly keeps defenders guessing on drives to the rim, has a fundamental understanding of angles, knows when the avoid or initiate contact, and uses craft to keep the ball away from defenders. Combine these qualities with his tight ballhandling skills, and you have a guard that can get to the paint and create advantages for himself and others at will.

Scoot Henderson’s areas for improvement

I have yet to come across a flawless draft prospect in my time doing this—yes, including Victor Wembanyama—and Henderson is no exception either. Most notably, Henderson will have to improve as a three-point shooter both off the catch and off the dribble, as he only hit about 33% of his threes this season. But considering that he improved that efficiency by 11% compared to his first season with the Ignite, has shown plenty of flashes of touch around the rim and in the midrange, and hit about 74% of his free throws, improving in this area is well within the realm of possibility.

Henderson had some lapses as a decision-maker while being tasked with running a G-League team’s offense at such a young age. His questionable decisions often took the form of dangerous or easily-interceptable passes, contested shots early into the shot clock, or just flat-out forcing the issue against tough defense instead of remaining patient for a better play. But these issues are highly correctable with experience and tough coaching, and frankly, it would be more unusual if Henderson weren’t having some of these lapses against professional competition.

How the Spurs should build around Henderson

You’ll find most of Henderson’s strengths and areas for improvement we listed on other outlets’ profiles on him as well, as I generally agree with the consensus on his abilities. But things get more philosophical and subjective when bringing team-building into the conversation. Regardless, with Henderson becoming the Spurs’ centerpiece if they were to select him in the draft, the supporting cast is something Spurs fans ought to consider.

First and foremost, continuing to build defensive infrastructure will be key for the Spurs if Henderson joined the team. I’m a bit higher on Henderson’s individual defensive upside than most, as he has all the physical, athletic, and instinctual tools to be more effective than he’s given credit for both on and off the ball. 

But having high-level perimeter defenders with good length like Jeremy Sochan and Devin Vassell next to Henderson is advisable long-term to take some pressure away from him on that end of the floor. And perhaps even more importantly, adding a high-level rim protector to the rotation should allow Henderson more freedom to take risks on the perimeter and create transition opportunities. 

On the other end of the floor, Henderson would benefit in a big way by having a talented screener and play-finisher at his disposal. Charles Bassey is likely the Spurs’ best young candidate to fill that kind of a role, especially considering the team had enough confidence in him to give him a multi-year contract, but I highly doubt that would stop the team from looking for more players in free agency or the draft that can fill that role.

I’ve been alluding to it here, but if I were forced to choose a single player archetype that would make a lot of sense next to Henderson, it’s a stretch five, similar to how Jaren Jackson Jr. complements Ja Morant on the Memphis Grizzlies. Such a player would obviously be great to have with or without Henderson on the roster, but in theory, a defensive-minded stretch five that can match up with other bigs in the paint on both ends of the floor would likely maximize Henderson’s strengths and vice versa.