How Jarace Walker and the Spurs can push the boundaries of positionless basketball

If you can believe it, the San Antonio Spurs only have nine games left in the 2022-23 season. And being a team recently eliminated from playoff contention, all eyes moving forward will be set directly on the NBA Draft Lottery--occurring May 16th--along with the 2023 NBA Draft later in June. The Spurs currently hold the third-worst record in the league, with the Charlotte Hornets being a comfortable 3.5 games ahead of them in the standings, meaning, in all likelihood, the Spurs will own a 14% chance at winning the number one overall pick in the lottery.

The Spurs' front office almost certainly has Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson in the crosshairs as their two main targets coming into the home stretch. But as we have reminded fans periodically throughout the season, it would be wise to prepare yourself for several alternative outcomes in the upcoming draft. While the chances of the Spurs ending up with a top-four pick (a 52.1% chance, to be exact) are higher than the odds of them winding up outside of the top four, there is still a significant chance the Spurs will be selecting someone not named Wembanyama, Henderson, or Miller on draft night, as disappointing as that may sound.

Thankfully, the top half of the upcoming lottery looks stacked with more talent than most drafts in recent memory. We've already entertained the possibility of the Spurs selecting one of Amen or Ausar Thompson in the draft, who both certainly have the upside to warrant such a high pick. This time around, we're going in a different direction and discussing Houston Cougars standout freshman Jarace Walker, his fascinating fit with the current Spurs squad, and his long-term upside. 

Jarace Walker has entered the top-five conversation

We're going to start this by calling back to our original (yet very brief) evaluation of Jarace Walker from the preseason in our 'way-too-early' 2023 NBA Draft Big Board:

"Don’t be mistaken: although Jarace Walker isn’t currently a bit higher on this board, he’s quickly become one of my personal favorite players to watch and could quickly rise. The 6’8”, 240-pound forward undoubtedly has the best ballhandling skills for his size in his class, is a great playmaker, and is a defensive menace on and off the ball. His fit with Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars is a match made in heaven and I’m very confident that it will do wonders for his draft stock going into next summer.

We’re generally proponents of the “draft the best player available and figure out fit later” model of drafting, but at this stage, it’s a bit difficult to envision Walker coexisting with Jeremy Sochan in the same lineups. This is a small nitpick that could very quickly change if he proves to be a high-level rim protector and signs of a more reliable jump shot emerge, but the level of talent is so high among this draft class’ wings that this knocks him down a bit for now. Even so, this is far from the last time we’ll be bringing up his name in draft conversations."

Walker's tape from his time at IMG Academy was convincing enough for me to have him as one of the top prospects for Spurs fans to watch in college basketball, and as expected, he and the Houston Cougars have been a near-perfect match. His defensive prowess, which we'll talk about more in-depth shortly, has shone brightly throughout the season, and despite a bit of a slow start, he's generally settled into his role incredibly well over the past few months.

The two most pressing question marks in our preseason evaluation of Walker were his shooting and rim protection capabilities. But alas, he's shown convincing flashes of legitimate upside in both areas. He's shot just a hair under 35% from three on 2.7 attempts per game this season and most recently recorded six blocks in his NCAA Tournament performance against the Auburn Tigers.

Having averaged 11.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.0 steals per game throughout the season despite playing next to several talented (and older) teammates on a Houston team with championship aspirations, I'm incredibly confident that Walker is a top-10-level prospect in his draft class at the very least. And I think he has a genuine chance to break into the top five.

Jarace Walker's Strengths

Playmaking

Many tend to gravitate towards Walker's defense as being his main draw. While I don't necessarily disagree with that sentiment, his playmaking ability is easily my favorite trait. While 1.7 assists per game may not instill a ton of confidence in his passing, that number comes down to his role in Houston's offense. But when Walker can get into the paint with the ball off the short roll or attacking a closeout, he is an incredibly dangerous connector.

Walker is comfortable making live-dribble passes, makes a habit of finding weak-side shooters, and finds space to feed cutters (as seen above). At his size, you will be hard-pressed to find a more talented and effective passer in his draft class, and combined with his ability to score the ball, it will do wonders for him at the next level.

Defense

Walker's defense made him a highly-touted prospect coming into the college basketball season, and it's easy to see why. At 6'8" and 240 pounds, Walker is physically gifted enough to cause havoc for smaller guards on the perimeter--particularly when trapping--but also has the requisite size and strength to guard up positions. He covers ground deceptively quickly for his size using his underrated burst and isn't afraid to dig at players with a loose handle on the ball.

Beyond that, Walker makes disciplined rotations, communicates well, closes out on shooters hard, and keeps his head on a swivel. But perhaps most importantly, he's shown quite a bit of competence as a rim protector with good lift, timing, and the ability to recover when someone gets by him on the perimeter. Having good instincts is half the battle when it comes to effectively protecting the rim--especially when you're only 6'8"--and Walker has plenty where that came from.

Finishing

Walker's talent for finishing around the rim and brushing off contact at least partly comes from his freakish athleticism. But it can also be attributed to his flashes of impressive touch near the basket. He can catch lobs in the dunker's spot and off pick-and-roll actions or use his developed ballhandling moves to weave through defenders. His touch and general finishing ability have been easier to see when he uses his right hand, and his left hand will need to continue to develop, but what he's shown in this department is already convincing enough for me to label it as a strength.

Jarace Walker's areas for improvement

Shooting

I'm uncomfortable labeling Walker a poor shooter at this stage in his development, particularly considering how efficiently he scored on all three levels in early February. However, there is still quite a bit of room for improvement. Mechanically, Walker tends to lean back and to his left on jump shots and has a slow release, leading to some inconsistencies when defenders force him to rush shots. Furthermore, Walker has only made roughly 64% of his free throws on the season.

Thankfully, Walker's shot is far from being broken. He isn't a lost cause and appears to have unwavering confidence shooting the ball. When taking his touch around the rim and in the midrange into account, there's plenty of reason to be optimistic about the long-term development of Walker's jumper.

Ballhandling

The question surrounding Jarace Walker's ballhandling ability is much less of a "can he do it" question and more of a "will he do it" question. He generally strikes me as a player with a clear-cut purpose whenever he puts the ball on the floor, whether he intends to drive to the rim on closeouts or post up smaller defenders. I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing. I also won't necessarily be counting on him to put the ball on the floor for extended periods or patiently navigate the pick-and-roll as the ballhandler from day one.

However, there are also reasons to be optimistic in this area of his game. He appeared more willing and comfortable putting the ball on the floor during his time with IMG Academy, leading me to believe he might not fully have the green light to do that frequently in Houston. And when he does put it on the floor, he keeps a low dribble and has a distinct "wiggle" to his game that may be more noticeable if he's given more freedom at the next level.

Spurs taking Walker would test the limits of "positionless" basketball

You aren't alone if you found yourself experiencing a bit of deja vu reading through this scouting report. Walker's player profile is strikingly similar to Jeremy Sochan's from this past season. To be clear, they aren't the same player, but for some, this could still lead to concerns about their ability to coexist on the floor, particularly considering they both need to improve as shooters. So, while I'm incredibly sure Walker is worthy of being selected early in the lottery, the bigger question is whether or not he can share the floor with Sochan.

That was a big question mark for me heading into the college basketball season. Thankfully, After watching more and more of Walker during his time with Houston, I'm convinced he and Sochan could form an incredibly unique duo. And to illustrate what that pairing could look like, I'm going to walk you through what a set play on offense could look like with the offense running through Sochan and Walker and then provide a point of comparison.

Sochan brings the ball up the floor as the lead ballhandler and calls for a screen from Walker. Walker sets the screen, rolls around the free-throw line, and receives the ball from Sochan. Walker now has three choices. One: playing the two-man game with Sochan for easy points around the rim. Two: Driving to the basket or getting into his midrange game. And Three: Putting the ball on the floor and drawing in the help defender before hitting the weak-side shooter.

In an instance where a big like Zach Collins is setting the screen, Walker could instead choose to relocate behind the three-point line for a kick-out pass from Sochan. The ball skills that both Sochan and Walker possess could lead to endless possibilities for the Spurs on offense, particularly if the team continues to surround those players with high-level shooters.

On defense, while I think Sochan is slightly more capable of defending bigs than he's generally given credit for, Walker already has the physical profile to play more consistently as a small-ball five, allowing Sochan to remain closer to the point of attack where he's more effective. The Spurs having a competent shot-blocker would likely instill a bit more confidence in Sochan and even Devin Vassell to be more aggressive on the perimeter.

For comparison, while I think it's far from being exact, the Spurs selecting Walker could mean their goal is to take a similar team-building approach to the Toronto Raptors, with Sochan and Walker being the Spurs' "versions" of Scottie Barnes and Pascal Siakam, respectively. Sochan would operate more as a point-wing on offense and a point-of-attack defender. Walker would take on a scoring forward role on offense while acting as a hybrid 4/5 on defense.