NBA Draft Big Board: How Spurs Can Balance Talent and Fit

As the San Antonio Spurs' season officially draws to a close, the team has secured the ninth-best lottery odds for the upcoming 2022 NBA Draft. With a 20.3% chance at jumping into the top four picks and a 4.5% shot at the No. 1 selection, GM Brian Wright and the front office have plenty to consider moving ahead.

San Antonio has a handful of glaring holes in its lineup. The team lacks shot creation, size, length, athleticism, volume 3-point shooting, and defensive intensity. Using three first-round draft picks and a treasure trove of future assets, Wright could move his chess pieces around the draft board to solidify his team's young core.

Considering the flexibility San Antonio gave itself heading into the 2022 NBA Draft, all options must be examined. This Big Board isn't a true indication of the talent level for each player listed, but instead a testament to their possible fit in silver and black. Some players are too good to pass up in a specific range while others may fall due to overlapping skills with guys already in the team's lineup.

Before examining five tiers broken up among the top 15 best players for the San Antonio Spurs, let's take a brief look at the Honorable Mentions who didn't make the cut.

Dyson Daniels, G League Ignite

• DRAFT AGE: 19
• HEIGHT: 6’6”
• WEIGHT: 199 lbs
• POSITION: Big Guard

TyTy Washington Jr., Kentucky

• DRAFT AGE: 20
• HEIGHT: 6’3”
• WEIGHT: 197 lbs
• POSITION: Point Guard

Nikola Jovic, Mega Basket

• DRAFT AGE: 19
• HEIGHT: 6’10”
• WEIGHT: 205 lbs
• POSITION: Point Forward

E.J. Liddell, Ohio State

• DRAFT AGE: 21
• HEIGHT: 6’7”
• WEIGHT: 240 lbs
• POSITION: Stretch Four

Christian Koloko, Arizona

• DRAFT AGE: 22
• HEIGHT: 7’1”
• WEIGHT: 230 lbs
• POSITION: Center

Let's get started with the board.

Tier Five: Throwing Darts

Three vastly different players make up the fifth tier: A traditional big man, an upside swing at forward, and a safer bet who took a bit longer to blossom.

15. Ousmane Dieng, New Zealand Breakers

• DRAFT AGE: 16
• HEIGHT: 6’8”
• WEIGHT: 216 lbs
• POSITION: Big Wing

A relative unknown to many, this French forward turned down offers from elite college basketball programs and the G League Ignite to join the NBL’s ‘Next Stars’ program instead. After a rough start to his season, Dieng has come along nicely with impressive displays of shooting, playmaking, ball-handling, and defending.

Dieng is an upside pick who will surely need time to hone his abilities at the next level. The jumper, while pretty and sometimes effective, has been terribly inefficient in the pros. At times, he gets lost on defense and is prone to commit unnecessary fouls out of desperation.

Given the Spurs’ current situation, Dieng would be a great long-term project for this club as a late first-round selection. No one on the team possesses his union of shooting potential, defensive instincts, and guard skills from a projected forward. Picking twice in the 20s, San Antonio can afford to swing for the fences.

14. Ochai Agbaji, Kansas

• DRAFT AGE: 21
• HEIGHT: 6’5”
• WEIGHT: 215 lbs
• POSITION: Wing
  

What can’t Ochai Agbaji do on a basketball court? Already touting defensive pedigree that nearly got him drafted a year ago, Agbaji took an extra year in college to expand his skill-set and extend his shooting range beyond the 3-point line. That, coupled with keen cutting ability and flashes of competency as a shot creator, makes him an effective player on and off the ball.

At worst, Agbaji is a high-level rotational role player who can defend several positions. At best, he can become one of a team’s top options while drawing the defensive assignments that no one else wants.

If he were just two or three inches taller and a few years younger, we’d be talking about Agbaji as one of the five best prospects in this draft. He doesn’t have any say in that, but what he can control is his effort level, which never wavers. Quite frankly, he might be too low in these rankings.

13. Mark Williams, Duke

• DRAFT AGE: 20
• HEIGHT: 7’1”
• WEIGHT: 242 lbs
• POSITION: Center

A throwback center who knows his role and plays it to a tee, Williams leverages his size and paint positioning to dominate the low block. He takes high-efficiency shots at the basket, oftentimes spinning or dropstepping his way to a ferocious dunk inside. With great hands and a massive wingspan, Williams can pin a shot on one end and finish a pick-and-roll on the other.

Now and again, the Blue Devil flashes a potential jump shot—though it’s not something you should outright expect from him. In terms of pure center play, he brings essential skills to the table that should make him a seamless fit for any team. Anyone who dares attack him one-on-one near the basket ends up regretting it, but he’s easily exposed when switched to on the perimeter.

In San Antonio, he’d essentially serve as Poeltl insurance and a servicable backup who would maintain many of the same traits in the Spurs system.

Tier Four: Too Good to Slip Further

Two guards who were pushed down due to uncertainty and redundancy with players already on the San Antonio Spurs roster make up this tier. While their talent is undeniable, the Spurs have bigger issues to address before taking another secondary guard.

12. Johnny Davis, Wisconsin

• DRAFT AGE: 20
• HEIGHT: 6’5”
• WEIGHT: 194 lbs
• POSITION: Shooting Guard

Don’t let the percentages trick you—Johnny Davis is a bucket. Between his shooting, scoring and slashing, he can score from anywhere on the floor. Truly elite scorers are able to play at their own pace no matter the matchup or system, and Davis showcased some of that in his Big Ten Player of the Year campaign.

While he’s not always going to blow you away with his explosiveness, Davis is a capable and methodical player. He makes smart reads in the halfcourt, attacking gaps in the defense and exploiting mismatches using his deep bag. Davis isn’t afraid of absorbing contact when driving to the rim and always finds a way to his spots.

Like other players in his class, it’s going to take time for his role in the NBA to be more clearly defined. He’s a willing passer, but not a lead playmaker despite commanding the ball and oftentimes being the focal point of an offense. Still, with his skill-set and determination, he’s sure to carve out a role as a pro.

11. Shaedon Sharpe, Kentucky

Whoever drafts Shaedon Sharpe will be dipping their hand into a mystery box. Ranked the third-best prospect in his recruiting class by 24/7 Sports, Sharpe has a jaw-dropping high school mixtape full of high-flying athleticism and astonishing ‘jelly’ layups through the lane. Still, he didn’t suit up for the Wildcats and may not even declare for the draft this season.

That being said, the allure of drafting such a dynamic scoring threat with speed, verticality and shooting potential is just too good to pass up in the lottery. Heck, Sharpe has a shot at ending up the best player in his class if everything pans out in his favor.

Tier Three: Upside Swings with Positional Need

Not only do all four of these players possess skills that directly correlate with the needs of this Spurs roster, but they have plenty of room to grow and could very well be available if San Antonio doesn't jump up from ninth overall.

10. Jeremy Sochan, Baylor

• DRAFT AGE: 19
• HEIGHT: 6’9”
• WEIGHT: 230 lbs
• POSITION: Versatile Forward

Arguably the most tantalizing first-round prospect, Sochan is a bit of an enigma. His swagger is palpable in the way he plays; exploding at the rim for dunks and emphatically swatting shots from the weak side when the opportunity arises. No matter the size or style of the player in front of him, Sochan is sure to bother the heck out of them with his shifty feet and keen anticipation as an on-ball defender.

However, it’s the ball-handling and passing flashes that make Sochan a lottery prospect versus a mid-to-late first-round swing. He doesn’t rely on these skills, but every so often, he will string together a dribble chain or make a dazzling pass that’ll drop your jaw.

At the end of the day, Sochan remains a gamble in spite of those brilliant flashes. His shooting percentages as a freshman were terrible, as were his sub-60% free-throw percentage. For a player of his size, Sochan doesn’t have much of a post game and finds himself falling behind after failed attempts at event creation on either side of the floor. Still, Sochan’s baseline skills of defending his tail off, attacking the glass and making smart reads in a team set make him an intriguing fit for the San Antonio Spurs young core.

9. Tari Eason, LSU

• DRAFT AGE: 21
• HEIGHT: 6’8”
• WEIGHT: 216 lbs
• POSITION: Forward

Sometimes, you have to give a player credit for simply making the winning plays. Though he’s unpolished in terms of technical skill, Tari Eason is a methodical player on each side of the floor who does the dirty work to put his team in position to succeed. Eason is a talented rebounder with soft touch used to score over larger defenders or finish through contact.

Coming off the bench for LSU, Eason is a selfless player. He managed to rack up steals and blocks at an astounding rate en route to the SEC Sixth Man of the Year award. A versatile matchup who can pester bigs and keep up with wings, Eason is a positionless defender who’s as locked in off the ball as he is on it. He’ll pounce at loose balls, poking and prodding at his opponent to disrupt their rhythm.

San Antonio desperately needs depth at the forward spots—particularly, someone who can switch on defense and run with the guards. Eason fits that mold very nicely, and if he can build upon his 3-point progression (28 made triples on 35.9% from deep), he’d be the perfect fit in silver and black.

Not to mention, his dunks are oftentimes so violent that they seem personal. Eason would assuredly bring some nasty to Gregg Popovich's squad.

8. Bennedict Mathurin, Arizona

• DRAFT AGE: 20
• HEIGHT: 6’6”
• WEIGHT: 210 lbs
• POSITION: Wing

By returning to the Arizona Wildcats for a sophomore campaign, Bennedict Mathurin took a massive leap in his overall productivity. The standard he set during the 2021-22 college basketball season catapulted him near the top of the draft discussion. Once considered a standard 3-and-D wing prospect, Mathurin has shown the capacity to extend beyond his core skill-set to manipulate defenses. A surefire jump shooter who fearlessly pursues the rim, Mathurin has a safe floor with a feasible chance to become much more.

Arizona oftentimes ran Mathurin through off-ball screens to free him up for 3-point jumpers, which he nailed at a 36.9% clip on a tick over six attempts per game. Sets like these are familiar to San Antonio Spurs faithful who fondly recall the off-ball motions used to free up shooters like Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Patty Mills, and Marco Belinelli. They could easily be replicated for Mathurin who could bring some much-needed volume shooting to the Alamo City.

Between the selfless ball movement and opportunistic, attacking onslaught this San Antonio Spurs core is working to deploy, Mathurin makes for a seamless fit.

7. Jalen Duren, Memphis

• DRAFT AGE: 21
• HEIGHT: 6’11”
• WEIGHT: 250 lbs
• POSITION: Center

Of every prospect in this class, big man Jalen Duren has the most NBA-ready body of the bunch. A bouncy athlete with excellent mobility and defensive timing, Duren projects to become a quality rim runner, paint defender, and glass cleaner. What separates him from the average role-playing center is his aptitude for sticking with ball-handlers off switches and disrupting offense in drop coverage.

Though he doesn’t project to be a star player, Duren has the traits needed to become a high-end starting center. If selected by the San Antonio Spurs, Duren would effectively become the team’s backup center. Immediately, he provides a level of bounce and energy that isn’t replicated by this team’s big men. He’d also be a substantial beneficiary of the Spurs’ pick-and-roll heavy offense while partnering with willing passers in Murray, Tre Jones, Joshua Primo, and Lonnie Walker IV.

Tier Two: Just a Bit Outside

Had the three biggest prospects in this year's class not happened to play the exact position that the San Antonio Spurs are weakest at, maybe one of these guys would climb the list. However, the cream of the crop has separated itself, which leaves these three elite prospects just outside of our top tier.

6. A.J. Griffin, Duke

• DRAFT AGE: 18
• HEIGHT: 6’6”
• WEIGHT: 222 lbs
• POSITION: Wing

One question looms heavily over Blue Devil A.J. Griffin: What exactly is he supposed to be in the NBA? Too skilled to be a simple 3-and-D wing but not polished enough to be an obvious go-to scorer, he remains a moldable prospect without a defined ceiling. One of the youngest players in his class, Griffin overcame a difficult stretch of injuries in high school to put together an impressive freshman season in Durham. 

The New York native’s two-way flashes shine brighter than police lights at a frat party. Using a seven-foot wingspan and physical nature, Griffin is able to manipulate contact on both sides of the floor. An active defender who’s still learning fundamentals and nuances, Griffin has everything he needs to become elite on that end.

A 44.7% 3-point shooter as a freshman, Griffin thrives off of team offense that generates clean looks. He’s always willing to play away from the ball but proved that he can assert himself when needed. His offensive style is smooth with an array of ball-handling moves that empower him to get to his spots.

There’s plenty of work to be done for Griffin to reach his full potential. The ball-handling needs refinement, his jumper might need a slight tweak, and there are plenty of fundamentals to key in on before he makes the jump. If there’s any franchise that can help Griffin tap into the player his flashes suggest, it’s the San Antonio Spurs.

5. Keegan Murray, Iowa

• DRAFT AGE: 21
• HEIGHT: 6’8”
• WEIGHT: 225 lbs
• POSITION: Power Forward

Although the four players before him reign supreme in the 2022 NBA Draft hierarchy, Keegan Murray might actually be the best fit for the San Antonio Spurs. The 21-year-old is a methodical and physically imposing power forward whose effort level remains the same on both defense and offense.

Murray addresses the Spurs’ greatest needs: Defensive versatility, switchability, floor spacing, and physicality. If you are interested in reading a complete evaluation of Keegan Murray’s game and his fit with the San Antonio Spurs, you can click here to read my profile from earlier this year.

4. Jaden Ivey, Purdue

• DRAFT AGE: 20
• HEIGHT: 6’4”
• WEIGHT: 195 lbs
• POSITION: Off Guard

Shockingly fast with incendiary athleticism and three-level scoring upside, Jaden Ivey is far and away the No. 1 guard prospect in this year’s draft class. The son of a former WNBA player and Notre Dame women’s basketball coach Niele Ivey, Jaden has spent his life around basketball. That helped him develop a great feel for the game, which he uses to execute basic reads after manipulating defenses with the two things he does best: Getting downhill to attack the rim and generating space to show off his quick-trigger jump shot.

Though he possesses the tools to be an impact defender, Ivey is prone to lapses in the halfcourt. His reaction time and focus level will need to increase for him to be a plus defender in the NBA. Furthermore, many draft pundits question which position he will play at the next level—but in an increasingly positionless league, it shouldn’t impede him from impacting the game.

Tier One: Elite Prospects Who Address the Spurs’ Needs

We've finally arrived to the main event. It's long been decided that these three players are the top three prospects in the draft (although Jaden Ivey might give them a run for their money). Genuinely, any of these three prospects could be a complete and utter grand slam for the San Antonio Spurs in the 2022 NBA Draft.

3. Jabari Smith, Auburn

• DRAFT AGE: 19
• HEIGHT: 6’10”
• WEIGHT: 220 lbs
• POSITION: Big Forward

Lauded by many as the top pick in the 2022 NBA Draft class, Jabari Smith is an explosive athlete with a killer jumper who doesn’t need the ball in his hands for long to be effective. With great size and mobility at the four-spot, he projects to be a tough cover at the next level whose physical tools give him tremendous defensive upside.

Smith’s jumper is like a stick of butter at room temperature: Soft, smooth and versatile. You can implement it in a variety of styles and still find success—whether it’s the main ingredient or a part of the whole. He shot 42% from 3-point land with a blend of spot-ups, pull-ups, and catch-and-shoot jumpers. When he finds the right opportunity, Smith can use the threat of his shot to draw gravity to the perimeter and attack gaps for mid-range shots or layups.

Where Smith slides from one to three on the board is his upside and consistency as an all-around player. Like so many freshmen, he’s prone to tunnel vision and poor shot selection. It’s certainly something he can get past like many great players before him, but in the Spurs’ system, shot quality and passing are too important to be overlooked.

Someone has to be the last of these three elite prospects, and while Smith is a tremendous player, he lacks some of the intangible qualities the other two bring to the table. His handles need tightening and his court vision is far from where it needs to be for him to eventually reach his star potential. All things considered, the San Antonio Spurs would be overjoyed to welcome Smith to their ball club.

2. Paolo Banchero, Duke

• DRAFT AGE: 19
• HEIGHT: 6’10”
• WEIGHT: 250 lbs
• POSITION: Big Forward

At every level of the game, Paolo Banchero has proven his ability to go out and get a bucket. Using guard skills attained before the growth spurt that made him a bulky yet shifty bruiser in college, Banchero has three-level scoring talent and shot creation to match.

First and foremost, he’s a terror near the basket. Between dynamic athleticism, smooth finishing ability, and soft touch, Banchero can score at the rim nearly any way he wants to. He’s not afraid to absorb contact, forcing defenders to pick their poison and give up fouls while defending him. With that baseline of scoring talent, he leverages a clean pull-up jumper, impressive handle and wicked triple-threat package to catch defenders off-balance. 

He’s unafraid to launch jumpers but needs work to hit 3-pointers on a more consistent basis. The on-ball defense can be shaky at times, but his blend of size and skill—plus the cherry on top being his pre-existing relationship with Dejounte Murray—make him a surefire match for the Spurs.

1. Chet Holmgren, Gonzaga

• DRAFT AGE: 20
• HEIGHT: 7’0”
• WEIGHT: 195 lbs
• POSITION: Center/Stretch Four

Between style, physique, and skill-sets, NBA Draft prospects often draw comparisons to players from previous classes. There’s no such player for Chet Holmgren—a polarizing yet undeniably talented young star from the likes we’ve never seen before. A tormenting shot-blocker who plays at his own pace, Holmgren is one of the best rim protectors to come from the draft in some time.

Oftentimes, Holmgren feels like a guard stuck in a slender, 7-foot body. He’s a talented passer who served as an offensive hub from the high post in Gonzaga’s offense. Holmgren drained 41 3-pointers at a 39% clip in college—though his consistency and shot selection will need fine-tuning at the next level.

There are basically no holes in his game, and if the San Antonio Spurs jumped into the top of the NBA Draft Lottery, he’d make a stellar fit next to Jakob Poeltl. With that said, he’ll need time to adapt to the physicality of the pros. This has generally been the only knock against him from most draft evaluators.