NBA Draft Profile: Keegan Murray Brings Two-way Versatility Spurs Crave

No two players share the exact same path to relevancy, and it’s safe to say that Iowa forward Keegan Murray has taken the road less traveled. A 6-foot-8 forward who can bang in the post or rain jumpers from the perimeter, Murray’s route to the NBA Draft hasn’t always been in plain view. The son of a four-year Iowa starter, Murray and his twin brother spent a year at prep school before trying to double-down on their family’s Hawkeyes legacy.

Stuck on the back-end of Iowa’s rotation behind last season’s Naismith Player of the Year in Luka Garza and San Antonio Spurs draftee Joe Wieskamp, Murray spent his freshman year out of the limelight. But when Garza and Wieskamp left college basketball behind to pursue pro careers, Murray emerged as one of the most dominant players in the NCAA.

From his first year to his second, Murray’s scoring output skyrocketed by more than 16 points per game. In fact, his 23.5 points per game are tied for the third-most amongst D-1 players. Decisive in his actions and deceptive in his strength, Murray scores using an appealing shot profile compiled largely of paint buckets and 3-pointers that allows him to exploit gaps in his opponent’s defense.

Considered a late-bloomer at 21-years-old, Murray is one of the more intriguing prospects in this year’s class. The forward is far from the most explosive athlete in the class and may not be gaudy like some of his competition, but he’ll enter the league with a proven work ethic and baseline of skills that any team will appreciate.

There’s a good case to be made that San Antonio, barreling toward the late-lottery with a blatant gap in their frontcourt, is a perfect fit for the unconventional, modern forward.

Murray would bring the Spurs inside scoring

As the NBA leans further into perimeter-oriented offense, front offices have learned the value of balancing their lineups with skilled, versatile players at the four spot. Of all his traits, Murray’s lack of positional clarity might end up being one of his greatest attributes.

While Murray has an intriguing jump shot and confidence from range, it’s his inside scoring talent that binds the offensive repertoire together. He combines barreling physical strength and a 6-foot-11 reach to score at will near the rim. Murray welcomes contact and often generates fouls while deploying an array of maneuvers to protect the ball to score at the basket. He’s great at leveraging his defender’s position on the floor to get clean looks inside. 

Though post-scoring is frowned upon in many circles, Murray has shown an aptitude for generating shots at the basket with drop-steps, half-spins and sharp footwork from the low block. He doesn’t only rely on shots directly at the basket either—the Hawkeyes’ lead scorer uses his delicate touch to drop floaters and baby hooks from three-to-eight feet out.

After being the focal point of his team in college, Murray might be challenged to adjust his role when going up against NBA athletes on a nightly basis. That being said, Murray’s game is more based on intellect than athleticism. Taking smart shots instead of forcing them should help him endure the rookie learning curve easier than others.

But he has an outside game as well

Murray wouldn’t be a lottery prospect if his entire offensive game was sourced in paint scoring. His jump shot is clean, consistent, and dramatically improved from his freshman year. He makes 37% of his 4.6 deep attempts per contest this season, which are created by relocating around the perimeter, catching-and-shooting, and sliding out to the 3-point line after setting screens.

If he were a smaller guard, his release point might be more of an issue, but Murray uses his length to launch jumpers. At times, he’s flashed the ability to create 3-point looks for himself—though it’d be a big ask for him at the next level. He’ll be utilized best when paired with players whose gravity draws attention away from him. Having reliable playmakers to put the ball in his hands with a decent window to fire away will be crucial early on.

His release is decently quick, particularly for a big, and his follow-through is consistent as can be. A career 74% free-throw shooter, Murray projects to be a solid shooter at the next level despite his quick improvement in that area. Posting a 64% true shooting rate on nearly 16 shots per game, Murray has an attractive shot profile and the selection to match.

It’s worth noting that he’s a capable ball-handler who doesn’t turn it over all too often. He fights to retain control of the basketball when smaller players try to swipe it away from him, and he’s turning the ball over at roughly the same rate per 100 possessions as his freshman year despite a 12.2% bump in usage.

Murray thrives in transition both on and off the ball, making a b-line for the basket while creating lanes to dunk or change course for a layup when required. He generates second-chance buckets consistently, ranking third in offensive rebounds per game in the Big 10 Conference.

There is certainly an improvement to be made in game situations. Passing out of double teams can be an issue for him, and he has yet to put up one of his monster stat-lines against elite competition. With that being said, Murray reached 20+ points in 19-of-27 games so far this season and has 12 games of at least 25 points. It’s unclear where his scoring output will ultimately fall as a pro, but he’s earnestly proven that he can score at a high volume from the spots that modern basketball analytics favor.

Another concern is his lack of playmaking skills. While there’s no indication that Murray is a selfish player, he hasn’t showcased natural court vision or passing instincts that are desired from many modern fours. Still, if you ask him to make a simple pass in a team construct or swing the ball around the horn in a Spursian fashion, he can get the job done.

He’s susceptible to tunnel vision, but in his defense, he’s tasked with carrying a large offensive workload on this year’s Iowa squad. Therefore, it’s a likely byproduct of his current role. Still, he’ll need to speed up the time it takes to process certain one-on-one situations before resetting the ball in an NBA offense. 

What Keegan Murray offers defensively

Many high-volume offensive weapons tend to slack on defense or simply haven’t put in the time to evolve that side of their game. That’s not the case for Murray, whose defensive capabilities might be just as intriguing as his offensive upside. The projected four-man is quite mobile for a player of his stature with impressive lateral quickness that allows him to switch onto smaller guards and defend on the perimeter.

That mobility extends near the rim, where he can efficiently rotate and alter shots—whether that be as a primary defender or weak-side shot blocker. Murray averages two blocks per game with eight games of three or more rejections this season. His timing is acute and his court awareness extends beyond his years.

Murray has active hands, which he uses to swipe the ball away from players near the rim or jump into a passing lane and generate fastbreak sequences. For better or for worse, he chases after defensive highlights that can swing momentum in his team’s favor.

Though he has some of the skills for it, Murray may struggle as a small-ball five in the NBA. Playing against the strongest, biggest and most seasoned basketball players in the world is no easy task. Should he find himself matched up against 7-footers, Murray might have trouble keeping up.

Simply as a frame of reference, Murray is built similarly to 76ers forward Tobias Harris. They are currently listed at the same height and within one lb of each other. Though Murray flashes far more promising instincts, tools, and understanding as a defender, he could endure similar challenges to Harris. Teams could try frequently drawing him to the perimeter, or switching him onto a big to make him uncomfortable.

Through all of the ‘what if’s,’ Murray was already considered an NBA Draft prospect as a freshman for his defensive versatility. All signs point toward him becoming an impact defender at the next level during an age in which defensive flexibility is the golden ticket for pro coaches.

Is Keegan Murray the answer for the Spurs?

Recent drafts have seen the San Antonio Spurs pick many guards, and to their credit, it’s mostly panned out. They’ve only drafted two forwards in the last 10 years who worked out for them: Keldon Johnson and Kyle Anderson, who was let go in restricted free agency after his rookie deal.

Considering their wealth of backcourt talent, now is the perfect time for GM Brian Wright to add some depth at his forward spots. If you count 6-foot-5 Keldon as more of a tweener, San Antonio only has two true forwards in its rotation right now: Doug McDermott and Keita Bates-Diop.

This just so happens to be the draft where they could luck into an elite forward prospect. On the flip side, their next developmental success story could fall in their lap. Should they land in the top three, San Antonio would be bound to pick one of Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren, or Paolo Banchero; but if they don’t, Keegan Murray might be the best available option.

Theoretically, Murray fits exactly what San Antonio needs from its four-spot: Floor spacing, defensive versatility, rebounding, grit, and physicality. He fits wonderfully alongside Jakob Poeltl, who is developing into one of the league’s best rim protectors with an evolving offensive game. Despite his growth, Poeltl is largely bound to the paint—meaning his ideal partner is someone like Murray who can impact the game from the perimeter and score from the inside out.

Furthermore, Keegan would make an incredible partner for All-Star Dejounte Murray, who is a steller pick-and-roll facilitator. Dejounte puts pressure on the rim and kicks out to shooters on a nightly basis. Could you imagine the fun Spurs play-by-play guru Bill Land would have calling out the Murray to Murray connection?

Age isn’t necessarily an asset, but being an older prospect seems taboo in today’s league. At one point, franchises lauded the players who took their time developing in college before attempting to make it in the pros. Most teams have turned their back on that philosophy, but for the San Antonio Spurs, I don’t think that matters.

Murray shares some similarities with Spurs wing Devin Vassell, who showed tremendous improvement from his first year at Florida State to his second. Sometimes, taking that extra year to figure out ways to maximize your game unlocks a world of potential. Vassell and Murray each took their core skill-set and expanded on it from year one to year two before heading to the league.

Having the maturity to take an extra year at prep school and focus on your development takes guts. To remain in college and do it again shows integrity and commitment to the craft. Whether you’re a teenager like Joshua Primo or an older prospect like Keegan Murray, who will be 22 by the start of his rookie year, the quality of your character and depth of your work ethic will be paramount when San Antonio is evaluating your fit with their organization.

With core qualities that appeal to the Spurs way off the court and skills they lack on it, Murray seems like the perfect fit for San Antonio anywhere outside of the top three in the 2022 NBA Draft.