DaRon Holmes II is the Spurs center prospect nobody is talking about (yet)

If you have Victor Wembanyama at the very top of your 2023 NBA Draft wish list for the San Antonio Spurs, I don't blame you. It looks more and more like he will be the surefire 1st overall pick in the draft and is undoubtedly the best big man prospect in his class.

But here's the reality of the situation: even if the Spurs were to go into the draft with the best chances of winning the lottery, that will only amount to a 14% chance at the top spot. But don't get me wrong--I'm in the camp that believes the 2023 draft is far greater than a one or two-man draft. The draft will be stacked with freshman talent alone, but we urge fans not to sleep on some potential sophomore and upperclassman candidates as well.

Today, we're going to be diving into one of the class' most slept-on centers: Dayton's DaRon Holmes II. Currently rated as a very late second-round prospect by Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman and a (more properly rated) early second-round prospect by Sports Illustrated's Jeremy Woo, Homles could easily sneak into the late 1st round by the time the draft comes around and could be a seamless two-way fit in San Antonio.

Is he as exciting of a prospect as someone like Wembanyama? No, but that certainly doesn't mean that Holmes should be overlooked either. Because Jakob Poeltl is consistently being brought up in trade rumors and concerns linger about Zach Collins' long-term health, do not be surprised if the Spurs begin to search for young bigs in the draft, perhaps even well into the second round. The following is why I see Holmes as an early candidate to monitor.

Jabok Poeltl's development with the Spurs bodes well for DaRon Holmes II

The debate on whether or not to trade Jakob Poeltl has never been more split among Spurs fans, and it's easy to see why. He has quietly become one of the league's best and most underrated centers, serving as a consistent rim protector, the centerpiece of the Spurs' motion offense, and an efficient scorer around the rim. Despite not exactly qualifying as a "modern" NBA center, his unorthodox skillset has allowed him to flourish during his time in San Antonio.

One of the more common arguments coming from those opposed to trading Poeltl stems from the belief that it will be difficult to find a center in the draft that will prove to be as good or better than Poeltl, particularly if they're selected outside of the lottery. And to be honest, this argument has some merit. Finding Poeltl's combination of rim protection and playmaking could turn out to be a very tough ask of the Spurs' front office in the draft. And when factoring in the player's fit next to Jeremy Sochan in that equation, that task could get even tougher.

Enter DaRon Holmes II, whose impressive feel for the game and combination of rim protection and playmaking has a chance to come the closest to that of Jakob Poeltl in the past several draft cycles. He's shown his ability to make high-level kick-out passes (like the one shown above), hit cutters moving toward the basket, and can even find teammates off of the live dribble like the example below.

Holmes is just as impressive of a rim protector on the other end of the floor, though, having recorded 2.3 blocks per game in his freshman campaign and nearly replicating that number through 7 games this season (2.1 blocks per game). He's shown that he can effectively defend in drop coverage, can recover for a block when he's (rarely) blown by in isolation, and understands the concept of verticality. Combined with his athleticism, which I'll dive into more momentarily, his upside as a rim protector is sky-high.

What aids his playmaking and shot-blocking abilities and is seemingly a bit overlooked, however, is his impressive processing speed. For being only 20 years old, Holmes is a very decisive player on both ends of the floor. On offense, he quickly recognizes when defenders are overhelping or are otherwise out of position and quickly finds the open man. On defense, he's proven himself to be a disciplined help defender when away from the ball and can read his opponents when defending the ballhandler. In short, he creates advantages for his teammates and minimizes them for his opponents.

You have to take the good with the bad when evaluating prospects, however, and similarly to Poeltl, Holmes' jump shot is not where it needs to be yet. Despite some promising flashes of good touch and seemingly okay-looking shot mechanics, he only made about 59% of his free-throws in his freshman season and seldom took jump shots, even with space to do so. But even so, the positive similarities he's shown to Poeltl could be enough to sway the Spurs in his direction.

DaRon Holmes II would further modernize the Spurs' frontcourt

Even if Holmes does possess some similar qualities to Poeltl, though, that alone may not be quite enough to convince the Spurs to select him in the draft over other potential candidates. The team has notably been leaning more into the concepts of versatility and positionless basketball in recent years, culminating in the selection of Jeremy Sochan 9th overall in the 2022 NBA Draft.

In looking for a "modern" center," the easy route to go is to look for a big that can provide rim protection and floor spacing, with Duke's Dereck Lively and Oregon's Kel'el Ware being two of the more well-known examples in the 2023 draft class. Ware in particular has come along well in recent games despite playing limited minutes. But even despite DaRon Homles' lack of a consistent jump shot, he also brings some modern tools to the table that could lure the Spurs.

While Jakob Poeltl's sheer size at roughly 7'1" and 260 pounds allows him to contest bigs around the rim and set hard screens on the perimeter, Holmes is already by far the superior athlete. Not only will he be a consistent lob threat on offense, but on defense, he has the necessary speed to jump passing lanes, is twitchy enough to hold his own on switches, and can use his vertical athleticism and plus wingspan to block jump shots. Holmes will need to continue adding weight to his frame to become the high-level screen-setter that Poeltl is, but his athleticism would add a new dynamic to the Spurs' frontcourt on day one.

What adds an extra dose of danger to Holmes' sheer athleticism though--particularly on defense--is his efficiency in transition. There have now been several convincing glimpses of Holmes capitalizing on forced turnovers by making good outlet passes to teammates and occasionally even leading the break himself. In the times he's had a clear runway in front of him, he's shown some comfort in being able to put the ball on the floor and turn defense into quick offense, like in the clip below.

Even if Holmes' jump shot never comes around, his passing will be what keeps him on the floor next to a non-shooting forward like Jeremy Sochan, just as it has for Jakob Poeltl. But Holmes' feel for the game, athleticism, and upside as a ballhandler are what can potentially pay serious dividends for the Spurs in the future. But regardless of whether or not this is enough to warrant the Spurs selecting him in the draft, if you're a fan of Jakob Poeltl, Homles and the Dayton Flyers will be a must-watch.

Dayton's next game comes this Wednesday against Western Michigan at 6:00 PM CST.