Way-too-early 2023 NBA Draft big board has sky-high potential

October is here, the NBA preseason is underway, and so begins what could end up feeling like one of the longest seasons for the San Antonio Spurs in decades. The departure of Dejounte Murray finally marks the beginning of a full-scale rebuild for the organization that saw over 20 years of playoff success. While some, including myself, are excited for this new, albeit likely tumultuous era of Spurs basketball, others can't help but think of some of the worst-possible outcomes for the team, including the Draft Lottery not being kind toward the Spurs.

The seven-foot Frenchman Victor Wembanyama is viewed by many already as the crown jewel of the 2023 NBA Draft, for reasons that we'll discuss in a bit more detail later. Others have some concerns about Wembanyama and think that the G-League Ignite's Scoot Henderson could be just as good of a selection in the draft, again, for good reasons which we'll discuss later. But the point that I want to drive home to Spurs fans early on in this draft cycle is that the 2023 NBA Draft should not be viewed as "Victor Wembanyama or bust," nor should it be viewed as "Scoot Henderson or bust."

Not only does this draft already appear to be just as deep with talent as the 2022 NBA Draft, but all signs point toward the 2023 draft having even more top-end talent in the lottery compared to the year before. It's still very early in the draft cycle and things could always begin to go wrong, but I am comfortable saying, even now, that this year's draft will produce several multi-year All-Stars and All-NBA candidates.

The college basketball season is now only about a month away, and we want to give Spurs fans more names to get excited about outside of Wembanyama and Henderson, as well as ease concerns that a pick outside of the top two would be a failure. It's worth emphasizing that this list of prospects is coming very early; do not be surprised if some names fall out of these conversations in the future while other names currently off our radar enter the mix. But without further ado, these are our top prospects to watch coming into fall.

Spurs 2023 NBA Draft guard prospects

Here's how this list will work: we've split up this "big board" into guards, wings, and bigs. We'll begin each category with five honorable mentions (as seen below) with one candidate leading the pack that has a case to enter our list of the top five prospects in that category at some point later in the season. We will follow that up with our current top five players to watch in each category.

By now, after selecting three guards in the 1st round of the draft in the past two years, you may think that more guards will be the last thing the Spurs are looking for. Regardless, for this list, we prioritized guards that are (1) three-level scorers, with an emphasis on high-level three-point shooting, and (2) players that fit the mold of a lead guard, meaning they can regularly run a team's offense and create opportunities for others.

Honorable Mention: Anthony Black - Arkansas

This jumbo, 6’7” creator, who will be playing his freshman season with the Razorbacks, is already one of my favorite players to watch in his class. Already frequently compared to the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Josh Giddey, he’s a natural playmaker with a fantastic feel for the game on both ends of the floor. With that in mind, though, Black looks to already be the superior athlete of the two and has outstanding spatial awareness and coordination that help to raise his overall defensive ceiling. 

Unfortunately, his jump shot is highly questionable and will certainly be his biggest swing skill going into the draft. I won’t be holding my breath, but if there are any signs of an improved jumper–particularly from three–then he’ll end up skyrocketing up this list into our top five.

Other guards we’ll be monitoring:

Tyrese Proctor - Duke

Jaden Bradley - Alabama

Judah Mintz - Syracuse

JJ Starling - Notre Dame

Spurs preseason top five: guards

A preseason watch list would not be complete without the obligatory Kentucky guard, and this year, the guy we have our eyes on is Cason Wallace. He isn’t an eye-popping athlete in any sense of the word, but he’s a pesky, hard-nosed defender, a good shooter, likely has one of the best floaters of any player featured on this list, and has proven in the past that he can be a team’s primary creator on the ball. 

With that in mind, he may begin to fall on big boards and mock drafts for similar reasons that Tyty Washington did this past draft cycle: it appears as if Wallace will be playing off-ball with Sahvir Wheeler playing as Kentucky’s lead guard. However, if Wallace can hit threes at a high rate, show that he can be a consistently good defender, and occasionally give fans a taste of his playmaking, he could be the first Kentucky guard to be selected in the lottery in quite some time.

4. Sidy Cissoko, G League Ignite

I’m exponentially higher on Sidy Cissoko than most at this point in the draft cycle, and it’s in part because he’s so difficult to classify. While many outlets currently have him listed at around 6’5” and 175 pounds, he looks to have grown to be closer to 6’7” or 6’8” and 200 pounds. He stands a chance to be one of the best passers (if not the best) in his class, is a very good transition athlete, plays aggressive defense against multiple positions, and has a motor that never seems to stop. Many will be focused on Scoot Henderson when it comes to the G-League Ignite, but I’m buying a ton of stock on Cissoko as well.

Cissoko’s swing skill that will determine how soon he’s selected, not unlike Anthony Black, is his jump shot. I’m buying in on his shot far more than Black’s, however, as he’s already shown several promising flashes of good touch and very deep range despite being relatively inefficient up to this point. 

Cissoko will likely be playing many of his minutes away from the ball with Henderson being the Ignite’s lead guard, but if Cissoko can make his presence felt on defense, continue to make winning plays with his everlasting motor, and knock down threes at a respectable clip, do not be surprised if he’s a lock for the lottery. If Dyson Daniels can be taken in the top ten, there is no doubt in my mind that Cissoko could be selected there if all goes well for him.

When it comes to college basketball teams stacked with freshman talent, Duke and Arkansas immediately come to mind this season, and in Arkansas’ case, Nick Smith Jr. is a huge contributor to that talent. He’s a scrappy offensive menace that stuffed the stat sheets during his time at North Little Rock High School, posting averages of 26.5 points, 8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists per game.

His most frequent player comparison up to this point has been Jamal Murray, but if you’re asking me early on, I see more shades of Murray’s teammate Bones Hyland. Smith has a silky smooth pull-up game from three, has one of the better floaters in his draft class, and uses his speed and wiry frame to sneak layups past defenders around the rim. Having Anthony Black at his disposal to feed him the rock should only increase his already high three-level scoring upside.

On the flip side of that coin, however, Smith’s physicality (or lack thereof) may not stand up well to interior defenders at the next level. His size could additionally pose some issues for him on defense despite his long wingspan and willingness to play aggressively on that end of the floor. If Smith’s scoring translates well to the next level and he can prove that he isn’t a defensive sieve, he could flirt with the top five in the upcoming draft.

Lewisville, TX native Keyonte George, much like Nick Smith, is advertised as a bucket-getting combo guard with high shooting upside. But despite the two being lumped together in conversations because of that, I think that’s where their similarities mostly end.

While Smith’s athleticism is defined by his quickness and length, George’s is defined more by power and coordination. He welcomes contact at and around the rim and makes some tough finishes through that contact with convincing regularity. But when defenders sag off of him to try and put a stop to his drives, he can hit a three with a hand in his face or hit pull-ups in the midrange. Regardless of where he scores, he is an advanced ballhandler that can get to his spots with ease.

I currently have George rated a bit higher than Smith due to his often underrated defensive upside, but the majority of that upside is far more theoretical than something that was often demonstrated in his high school play. If George can prove that he’s willing to buy into Scott Drew’s defensive scheme at Baylor, yet still remain effective as the team’s likely number-one scoring option, the sky is the limit for him.

1. Scoot Henderson, G League Ignite

To put it plainly, coming into the 2023 draft cycle, Scoot Henderson is the reason that Victor Wembanyama isn’t in a one-man race for the #1 overall pick. Henderson showed several convincing flashes of superstardom as a 17-year-old in a professional league, playing against players that often already have NBA experience. To call that level of visible talent unprecedented would likely be an understatement.

Henderson is an all-world athlete in general and may be the best functional athlete on this list perhaps barring (spoiler alert) Cam Whitmore. He’s lightning fast in the open court, incredibly shifty, strong, and is nearly just as effective of an athlete even with the ball in his hands. Henderson is just as skilled as he is athletic, though, as he made a hyper-efficient 48.6% of his 3.5 pull-up jump shots per game this past season, is a natural creator out of the pick and roll, and has shown good touch around the rim with both hands.

I’ll be closely monitoring Henderson’s defensive engagement, which he’s already shown very convincing flashes of, as well as his three-point shooting. With that in mind, though, all signs point toward Henderson having a breakout year as the G-League Ignite’s primary option and he is, in my mind, very easily the most NBA-ready guard in his class. Unless he experiences a severe dropoff, expect him to be a top-two pick.

Spurs 2023 NBA Draft wing prospects

Even after selecting Jeremy Sochan in the 2022 NBA Draft, who I consider more of a big with perimeter skills rather than a modern NBA wing, the Spurs' young wing depth isn't particularly strong, and it could look even weaker by next offseason if Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell don't take another leap. Being that there is a large group of talented wings in this upcoming draft class, it wouldn't surprise us if the Spurs went this route.

Similarly to our top guard prospects, we're prioritizing players with high shooting and general scoring upside, but we're also looking for above-average to elite athleticism and space creation abilities. Good defensive instincts along with advanced ancillary skills like ballhandling and playmaking are also highly coveted.

Honorable Mention: Amen Thompson - Overtime City Reapers

There is absolutely no denying that Amen Thompson–and his brother Ausar, for that matter–are two of the 2023 draft’s best athletes. They’re such good athletes, in fact, that they’ll likely even outclass a large swath of NBA players in that regard immediately upon entry into the league. Concerning Amen specifically, when you combine that athleticism with the fact that he’s one of the better passers and wing defenders in his class, you find yourself with a player with quite a bit of two-way upside.

With that in mind, though, there are very few non-bigs featured here whose jump shot I’m lower on than that of Thompson. His shot mechanics will likely require a complete overhaul, he’s shot inefficiently from both the free-throw line and three-point line, and hasn’t shown particularly outstanding touch around the rim. As good of an NBA player as I think Thompson could be despite that massive drawback, it will take a very specific roster construction to get the best out of him, and the Spurs don’t stand out as that kind of a roster at this stage.

Other wings we’ll be monitoring:

Leonard Miller - G-League Ignite

Ausar Thompson - Overtime City Reapers

GG Jackson - South Carolina

Jordan Walsh - Arkansas

Spurs preseason top five: wings

Many seem to be getting increasingly excited about Alabama’s Brandon Miller as the summer has progressed, and it’s easy to see why. The 6’9” forward may be the most talented scorer in his class for his size, is comfortable with putting the ball on the floor and passing with both hands, and is a very fluid transition athlete. 

While we can understand the hype around a 6’9” forward that operates like a guard (and has had success doing so), Miller is one of the more volatile players to be featured on this list. Scoring is by far his main calling card going into the season, and if he can prove that he can be a consistent scoring option at his size, which most signs are pointing to at this point, he’ll almost surely be a lottery pick. But his overall defensive engagement and off-ball instincts on offense are still big question marks going into the season, so if his scoring doesn’t translate, it’s a bit difficult to see what his alternate calling card could be.

Don’t be mistaken: although Jarace Walker isn’t currently a bit higher on this board, he’s quickly become one of my personal favorite players to watch and could quickly rise. The 6’8”, 240-pound forward undoubtedly has the best ballhandling skills for his size in his class, is a great playmaker, and is a defensive menace on and off the ball. His fit with Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars is a match made in heaven and I’m very confident that it will do wonders for his draft stock going into next summer. 

We’re generally proponents of the “draft the best player available and figure out fit later” model of drafting, but at this stage, it’s a bit difficult to envision Walker coexisting with Jeremy Sochan in the same lineups. This is a small nitpick that could very quickly change if he proves to be a high-level rim protector and signs of a more reliable jump shot emerge, but the level of talent is so high among this draft class’ wings that this knocks him down a bit for now. Even so, this is far from the last time we’ll be bringing up his name in draft conversations.

A name that was linked to the Spurs right up until draft night this past season was 6’10” point forward Ousmane Dieng, and if there’s any player in this class that could fit a similar mold, it’s Florida State’s Baba Miller. At a lanky 6’10”, Miller has shown convincing flashes of good ballhandling, passing, and shooting against professional competition in Spain. Florida State has had a fantastic track record with wing players with ball skills in recent years (see: Devin Vassell, Patrick Williams, and Scottie Barnes), and we think Miller could be next.

Miller could make a ton of sense for a Spurs organization that is early in a rebuild and could afford to take some big upside swings. What will determine whether or not the Spurs elect to use a lottery pick on Miller, though, is his consistency. If he can carve out a role for himself on what will likely be a vastly improved Seminoles team, I think there’s a timeline in which he’s a top ten pick.

Cam Whitmore is undoubtedly the “Big Body” of his draft class and I’m comfortable at this point with labeling him as the best all-around athlete of the draft as well. His combination of speed, vertical pop, and brute strength put him in a different stratosphere compared to most of his competition, making him a constant threat both in the open court in transition as well as off of drives in the half court from a standstill. 

What could turn that trait from dangerous to deadly, however, are his underrated playmaking ability and noticeably improved shooting. He was particularly impressive in both of these areas in the FIBA U18 Americas Championship tournament, where he averaged 18.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 1.7 rebounds in just over 17 minutes per game. While a very minor question of mine is whether or not Whitmore can lead a team as its primary option on offense, if he can even come close to replicating those stats and impact, this won’t be a question at all. 

During the college basketball season, I’ll be looking to see if his improved jump shot is the real deal and to see if his defensive engagement remains consistent. If those things come to fruition for him, Whitmore has top-three pick upside. 

I’m a sucker for players that stand out as being balanced; players whose ceilings aren’t severely capped by a lack of athleticism, yet whose floors are heightened by their fundamentals. This is a reason I was and am still incredibly high on Devin Vassell, and I think Scoot Henderson and our top big-man prospect both fit that bill. If there’s a wing player that we think could also fit that description, it’s Dariq Whitehead.

Whitehead took a massive leap in scoring after becoming the primary option at Montverde Academy in his senior year, and while his three-level scoring potential is his main draw, we think his passing, flashes of good defensive fundamentals, and touch around the rim set him apart from the pack. He has a Lonnie Walker-like smoothness to his athleticism that pops in the open court, but he also uses it to his advantage often in the half court to create space. 

Something I’d like to see more of from Whitehead at Duke is higher-level ballhandling, but considering how much I already trust his jump shot, space creation, and athletic tools, I already see him as a rare low-risk, high-reward draft prospect.

Spurs 2023 NBA Draft big man prospects

Again, similar to the two previous categories, we're looking for perimeter shooting in this draft class' bigs. In this case, however, rather than scoring upside, I think rim protection is the most valuable secondary skill we're looking for in a big. Essentially, if any bigs in this draft qualify as a modern stretch five that can protect the rim, we will be highly interested. Passing upside would be an added bonus, particularly in a prospect whose jump shot still needs to be developed.

Honorable Mention: James Nnaji - FC Barcelona

This young big man playing in the ACB may be the best pure rim-protecting draft prospect out of Europe for the time being, being the youngest player to put up five blocks in a single ACB game at only 17 years old. On first analysis, his defensive instincts appear to be very strong, he moves well for his size, and he’s an aggressive rebounder.

Outside of finishing lobs out of the pick and roll and/or the dunker’s spot, Nnaji’s offensive game is still in the very early stages of development, which is why he’s starting out only as an honorable mention. But high-feel bigs with international experience are almost always deserving of a shoutout, and if Nnaji is able to show a bit more offensive versatility, he could easily move up the list.

Other bigs we’ll be monitoring:

Kyle Filipowski - Duke

Adem Bona - UCLA

Leonardo Okeke - Joventut Badalona

Vincent Iwuchukwu - USC*

*We were saddened to hear this past week that Vincent Iwuchukwu suffered cardiac arrest during a USC team workout this past July. While it isn’t clear at this time if and when he’ll be cleared to play for USC, we still believe he is an NBA-level prospect and deserving of a mention here. We will be monitoring his situation closely moving forward.

Spurs preseason top five: bigs

Auburn’s Yohan Traore hasn’t been placed highly on too many big boards up to this point, but we fully believe that he could be a 1st-rounder if he continues to play as he did against Israel’s U20 team–which included current Washington Wizard Deni Avdija–in a preseason exhibition match this past August. 

At 6’10” and roughly 230 pounds, is a bit of a tweener, causing most of his damage on offense in the post but occasionally stretching out to the three-point line. On the other end of the floor, while not the most switchable defender, he can hold his own against bigs in the paint and occasionally cover forwards on the perimeter. Generally, he lacks some complementary skills on both ends of the floor (i.e., passing and ball handling on offense; shot-blocking on defense), so we’ll be carefully monitoring for flashes in those areas during his freshman campaign at Auburn.

4. Ousmane N’Diaye, Dragons Rhoendorf

Ousmane N’Diaye is likely the biggest sleeper candidate to be featured on this list, as he played this past season in the third-tier league (ProB) of the Bundesliga in Germany. To provide a bit more context of the level of talent in ProB, coincidentally, Jeremy Sochan played for Orange Academy of the Bundesliga’s second-tier league (ProA) before his freshman season at Baylor. With this in mind, however, N’Diaye will be moving up to play for Baskonia in the Spanish ACB.

N’Diaye will be one of the younger entrants in the coming draft and will need to add more weight to his frame to effectively defend NBA bigs, but nonetheless, the 6’11”, 210-pound big has an advanced handle for his size that could improve further, has a sweet shooting stroke from three, and a great feel for the game for his age. He has reportedly been improving rapidly over the past several years in the Bundesliga’s developmental system and may be primed for a breakout year in the ACB.

If N’Diaye can knock down threes consistently, effectively protect the rim, and perhaps even switch onto some smaller players on the defensive end, he’ll be a name worth continuing to monitor.

When it comes to bigs in the 2023 draft, the “big names” start with Oregon’s Kel’el Ware. The big man out of Little Rock, Arkansas, who also happened to be Nick Smith Jr.’s high school teammate, is a modern stretch five with impressive athleticism both in the open court and around the rim. Not only was Ware able to showcase his convincing jump shot during the FIBA U18 Americas Championship tournament, but he was also able to show his propensity for timing blocks well and generally being a good rim protector. 

Our appeal with Ware comes down to fit. If you’re asking me, when looking for a potential frontcourt partner for Jeremy Sochan, one should look for a big man that can protect the paint (so as to allow Sochan to defend on the perimeter and/or at the point of attack), and someone that is comfortable playing on the perimeter on offense. In that way, a stretch five like Ware, on paper, is a near-perfect match to place next to Sochan.

At this point in the draft cycle, our concerns with Ware lie in his motor, engagement, and conditioning. Despite his fluid athleticism, Ware can be a bit slow on the court at times, trail a bit too much in transition, and lose focus playing defense in the half-court. If he can straighten out those issues at Oregon, he’ll be much more competitive for the second spot on this list.

We’re going to keep the analysis on Dereck Lively pretty brief because, frankly, he profiles quite similarly to Kel’el Ware. Lively is a stretch five that is proven to be a good rim protector, runs the floor well, and can knock down outside shots on offense. The reasons we’re high on Ware apply to Lively as well.

So then, what gives Lively the edge on this early big board? He’s a bit taller than Ware, standing at roughly 7’1” or 7’2”, a hair leaner at roughly 215 pounds, and overall a slightly better athlete at this point. Furthermore, compared to Ware, we have fewer reservations about Lively’s motor and defensive engagement, he can switch on the perimeter a bit, and we buy into his jump shot a bit more for now. To be entirely transparent, though, it’s still a very tight race between the two bigs and we’ll have to see how they both fare at the next level before declaring a true leader with confidence.

1. Victor Wembanyama, Metropolitans 92

If you’ve been paying any attention to the draft lately or have already seen some of the carnage taking place on Spurs Twitter, Reddit, Facebook, etc., then you probably already know a bit about Victor Wembanyama. He’s been given every name in the book from “unicorn” to “generational talent,” with some even labeling him as the best NBA prospect since LeBron James. 

Standing at roughly 7’4” to 7’5” (no, that is not a typo), Wembanyama is almost certainly the 2023 draft’s best defensive prospect by a country mile. He can switch onto smaller guards on the perimeter, recover well when he’s beat, compete with bigs around the rim, and block shots that no human being should be able to block.

Wembanyama is just as impressive on offense, however, as you’ll see him leading fast breaks, hitting stepback threes, snaking through defenders with his unprecedented ballhandling skills, and seemingly dunking balls with little to no jump. Name just about any basketball skill and there’s a good chance that Wembanyama is at least serviceable at it, if not elite.

Should fans be concerned about his durability as they were with Chet Holmgren this past draft? Perhaps a bit, particularly given that he has a bit of an injury history already, but Wembanyama is too good of a prospect to shy away from just because of those concerns.

If your team selects him in the draft and he ends up riddled with injuries in the future, that is an outcome that the team will have to live with. Because if that team were to select him and he stays healthy, that team could have a kind of player the league has never seen before.