Why drafting Kobe Bufkin would give Spurs perfect running mate for Wembanyama

We're finally only days away from the 2023 NBA Draft, where it's all but certain that the San Antonio Spurs will be selecting LNB Pro A star Victor Wembanyama with the 1st overall pick. The Spurs will undeniably be gaining a young player with tangible superstar potential, and someone that NBA Draft expert Jonathan Givony believes will earn an All-Star nod in his rookie season.

In all likelihood, Wembanyama will come in as the team's #1 option on offense on day one in the league, and his defense--with a particular emphasis on his rim protection--has a strong chance of being All-NBA-caliber sooner rather than later. So, with all of that in mind, Wembanyama firmly sets the Spurs' championship timeline, and the team's focus will quickly shift to finding players that will complement Wembanyama's game and lead to winning as soon as possible.

Some believe that the Spurs will achieve this by adding experienced NBA veterans to the roster, with names like Chris Paul, Fred VanVleet, Naz Reid, and others being the players most commonly tied to the Spurs in the rumor mill. To a degree, adding such veterans will be important for the Spurs in the next several seasons, particularly if they have playoff experience. But signing and/or trading for big-name players that demand big contracts and sometimes even bigger trades isn't always the best route for teams wanting to make a championship push (see: the Brooklyn Nets).

Enter the NBA Draft, where the Spurs have found a good bit of success during Brian Wright's tenure as general manager. While it's all but assured at this point that Wembanyama will be the 1st overall pick, the Spurs don't have to end their night there, and recent rumors suggest that they're actively seeking another 1st round pick in this year's draft.

I've neglected to make too many concrete guesses about the Spurs' draft haul this cycle, particularly ever since it was revealed that the Spurs would be selecting 1st overall. But from a team-building and asset standpoint, the Spurs are in a good position to be aggressive in the upcoming draft and find another running mate for Wembanyama that can join the Spurs' young cast of role players. And if I'm forced to guess now, the name that stands out the most is Michigan sophomore Kobe Bufkin. Here's a breakdown of his game, his fit with the Spurs, and why I think the front office could move for him.

Kobe Bufkin possesses lottery-worthy upside

Despite having two potential lottery players on the roster in Bufkin and Jett Howard, the Michigan Wolverines didn't quite have the season they hoped for. Having missed the NCAA Tournament and made an early exit in the NIT against Vanderbilt, this marked their least successful season since they last missed the NCAA Tournament in 2015. But that shouldn't take away from the NBA potential that Bufkin (and Howard, for that matter) possesses.

Strengths

Feel for the game

Many describe Bufkin as a player that's good at a lot of basketball skills but that doesn't have an elite skill to hang his hat on at the moment, but I think his feel for the game on both ends of the floor qualifies as that elite trait. While this tends to show itself on offense through his pick-and-roll playmaking, I think it's easiest to see on the defensive end of the floor for the time being, where he can be seen applying pressure before screeners reach the ballhandler, reading passes and creating turnovers from a pass away, knowing when to help and when to keep pressure on his man, and more.

For a player that's still on the smaller side, being listed at only about 187 pounds, and being a good but not great athlete, his understanding of basketball and how to make winning plays without relying on sheer athleticism and physicality will be what keeps him on the floor early in his career, even if some of his other strengths don't translate to the next level immediately.

Shooting

Thankfully, I have a hard time believing that at least one or two of Bufkin's strengths won't translate to the NBA sooner rather than later, including his shooting. Having ended his season on roughly 48/35/85 shooting splits, the numbers won't exactly jump off the page, but several signs indicate that he has immense potential as a shooter in a variety of situations.

Bufkin's efficiency from the charity stripe may be the strongest indicator--despite the low volume of shots--that he'll be an effective three-point shooter at the next level, but his touch in the midrange and around the rim only amplifies that potential. His shot mechanics are compact, he doesn't have any noticeable hitch in his shot, and he has a high release point that makes his shots difficult to defend given his plus wingspan.

Finishing

If there's any other elite trait that Bufkin already possesses coming into his first day as an NBA player, it's his at-rim finishing. He shot an insane 71.1% at the rim overall and 66.7% in the half-court, which is on par with the finishing numbers of many frontcourt players. Bufkin is shifty enough and is good enough of a ball-handler to make his way to the rim with relative ease despite only average burst. And when he got to the rim, he used impressive craft and physicality to finish, as he's able to use both hands with impressive touch from a variety of angles.

While Bufkin is very clearly an elite finisher at the college level, this could take a bit of time to translate to the NBA. Bufkin will be facing bigger and more athletic frontcourt players at the rim, and even before then, will be forced to face better defenders on the perimeter. Bufkin's shiftiness, ball-handling, and change of pace should be enough over time to get him to the rim with similar frequency as in college, but it could take a bit of time and development.

Point of attack defense

We already discussed a few impressive aspects of Bufkin's defense in describing his feel for the game, but I think his point-of-attack defense deserves a special shout out. He could be constantly seen putting pressure on ball-handlers during his time at Michigan and is very good with his hands when opposing players gave him any daylight, leading to many of his steals and transition opportunities. While Bufkin won't necessarily be drafted for his defensive aptitude, he'll be able to guard both backcourt positions at the next level and potentially even some SFs after bulking.

Areas for improvement

Strength

While Bufkin takes contact surprisingly well around the rim given his stature, I would argue his overall strength is his most glaring weakness at this point. His lack of strength shows itself most frequently on defense, where he tends to die on screens unless he takes unusual angles or purposefully avoids contact with the screen-setter.

More generally speaking, though, for a player that isn't the twitchiest or springiest athlete, adding strength will be key for him in continuing to be an effective finisher around the rim, becoming a more switchable perimeter defender in isolation situations, and becoming a more effective pick-and-roll defender.

Drawing fouls

For a player that got to the rim and finished as much as Bufkin did, he didn't draw many fouls and shot only 2.6 free throws per game. While I wouldn't say that this is an issue that could negatively affect his on-court presence in the same way that his lack of strength could initially, adding the ability to get to the free-throw line on a consistent basis could dramatically open up other parts of his game on offense over time.

Were Bufkin to add this to his game as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has, for example, the threat of his at-rim finishing could only be amplified at the next level, making defenders more hesitant to draw contact near the bucket and more willing to give him space on the perimeter. While Bufkin's three-point shooting could stand to be a bit more consistent, getting to the free-throw line should be the most important goal for Bufkin to open up his three-level scoring potential.

Shot selection

Bufkin is already a bit better at creating space than he's usually given credit for, but even so, his lack of consistent separation did lead to some problems, mostly coming in the form of tough, contested jump shots. His consistency and willingness left a bit to be desired at times, and in combination with his still-limited abilities as an isolation scorer, he certainly took his fair share of bad shots.

Depending on where Bufkin lands in the draft, he likely won't be taking on a primary offensive role any time soon, and that's okay. The more time he's given to further develop his ball-handling, his outside jump shot, and his body, this issue may begin to disappear on its own.

Kobe Bufkin is a pristine fit for the Spurs

With the Spurs' #1 pick on the way very soon, team fit just got a lot more important, and with that in mind, I think Kobe Bufkin could be one of the better pairings next to Victor Wembanyama and one of the better fits within the Spurs as a whole in this draft class.

The moment the Spurs secured the #1 overall pick, priority #1 (if you ask me, anyway), is to find ways to keep the ball in Victor Wembanyama's hands as much as possible while still fulfilling some of the Spurs' team goals: namely, continuing to build defensive infrastructure, prioritizing shooting, and finding more advantage creators.

The argument for the Spurs trading up for Bufkin in this draft starts and ends with his sheer versatility. While he didn't quite play as a traditional point guard with Michigan, he has the pick-and-roll poise and playmaking acumen to run the offense at the next level, and playing off of someone with as much on-court gravity as Wembanyama could dramatically open up scoring opportunities for him as well, whether that scoring is self-created or as an off-ball threat via DHOs, spot-up shooting, movement shooting, or cutting. Being that the Spurs have so many capable playmakers on the roster, the possibilities could be endless for Bufkin on offense.

In that same vein, Bufkin won't require the ball in his hands to be successful on offense, meaning Wembanyama will have even more free reign to control the rock, create shots for himself, and make plays for others. This is in stark contrast with a guard prospect like Amen Thompson, for example, who is largely unproven as an off-ball prospect and whose success may depend on him having the ball in his hands a lot. And considering that the Spurs will also likely still want to put the ball in the hands of Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson at times, not to mention Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, and others, I could envision a ball-dominant lead guard leading to some problems.

Bufkin willingly played a supporting role next to both Hunter Dickinson and Jett Howard at Michigan and was still very clearly effective while on the floor. In fact, with Bufkin on the floor, Michigan's defensive rating improved from 109 to 100.2 and their offensive rating improved from 98.2 to 109.6. This kind of effect in a supporting role is precisely what the Spurs should be looking for in a point guard prospect moving forward, and when considering Bufkin's individual upside compounded with that impact, I can't imagine a much better guard to trade up for in this draft that will be available outside of the top 5.