Keldon Johnson's Floor
Even if Keldon Johnson struggles this year, the sheer increase in minutes from the Spurs should be enough to where he doesn't take a step back in the majority of his stats. I expect him to get somewhere upward of 30 minutes per game this season and maybe even close to the 32 minutes Dejounte Murray received last season.
If his outside game still hasn't been polished and he shoots in the low 30s from the outside again in 2022, his overall offensive production will take a hit. Much of Johnson's game right now comes from hustle and hard-nosed drives, with the latter being containable when he isn't knocking down threes.
On the low end, let's say Keldon still hasn't established an outside shot or second go-to move like a mid-range jumper of floater to mix in with his determined rim drives. That would probably put him at somewhere around 14.5 points per game in 2022. That would have him somewhere between Lonzo Ball and Ben Simmons in points per game in 2021.
Even if at his worst, I don't see Keldon's rebounding taking any kind of dip this season. Once he really wants a board and can get position, that board is his. After pulling down six per game last season, I expect a low-end guess for him to be around seven this year.