This past week, Las Vegas released some of their predictions about the upcoming NBA season, including the San Antonio Spurs' projected win total. Because of their very underwhelming prediction, we decided to look at that win projection through a critical lens. Here, we plan to make a prediction of our own for the 2021-'22 season.
The NBA has confirmed an 82-game season which will bring a renewed sense of normalcy to the NBA landscape after two very untraditional, pandemic-ridden years. The reduced risk of players having to go into health and safety protocols will help every team in terms of day-to-day team structure, and of course, reducing the risk for injuries related to not having ample rest time. In fact, there were so many injuries this past season that the Spurs may have actually benefitted from missing the playoffs.
But how will returning to a regular 82-game season benefit the Spurs? Will it matter with such a revamped roster? Further, was the new roster taken into consideration when Las Vegas oddsmakers threw out their wildly low projection of 28.5 total wins? I can not speak for the bookkeepers, but what I can do is show a glimpse of how I arrived at my personal projected win total for San Antonio. Spoiler: no over-complicated data models were necessary.
After much thought and consideration, I arrived at my win total for the Spurs utilizing three primary "sub-predictions." In other words, these three lesser predictions will need to happen for the Silver and Black to have a shot at hitting the win total I've predicted for the team.