Spurs: Was Making the Play-In Worth the Drop in Lottery Odds?

Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones
Dejounte Murray, Herbert Jones / Sean Gardner/GettyImages
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When the 2022 NBA Draft Lottery takes place on May 17th, the San Antonio Spurs will have a 77% chance of selecting 9th or 10th with their lottery pick.

A nearly 80% chance of having a top 10 pick is certainly encouraging, but there's no doubt their chances could've been greater for a higher pick if the Silver and Black didn't go on an end-of-the-season run. By losing just two more games and finishing behind the Los Angeles Lakers, the Spurs would've had a 34.5% chance of selecting 8th.

They also would have a 26.3% chance of moving up to the top four in June's draft as opposed to their current 20.3% chance. Finishing one spot further down would shoot the chances of a top four spot to 32.0%. Looking back at how the Spurs' season unceremoniously ended after a single Play-In Tournament game, was that experience worth the drop in their odds for the NBA Draft?

First, let's take a look at what making the NBA Play-In Tournament cost the Spurs in terms of overall lottery odds.