The San Antonio Spurs shouldn't draft a Senior
Over the last fifteen drafts, there have only been a few four-year college players taken in the lottery. Even fewer have gone on to become successful long-term NBA players. While every player is different in their own way, there appears to be a clear trend: seniors taken with a lottery pick often fail to live up to expectations.
A lottery pick provides teams with a chance to draft their next star, often by choosing young players with potentially high ceilings. This contrasts with college seniors who, while often are more polished and NBA-ready, also have limited trajectories and shorter careers.
Taking the Spurs' track record from their last ten drafts into account, they tend to select freshmen or sophomores with intriguing tools that can be shaped and further developed. This is a formula they've seen success with more often than not.
Several four-year players such as Corey Kispert, Davion Mitchell (a red-shirt junior), and Chris Duarte are projected to go anywhere between tenth and 20th overall. However, the Spurs would be wise to avoid all three with the 12th pick. Instead, they should favor younger players with greater upside.
Fans will have to wait until the draft to see who the Spurs ultimately select with the 12th pick. That said, as long as San Antonio avoids making the four aforementioned mistakes, they should be able to find yet another great young player.