Ron Holland: The San Antonio Spurs' potential next cornerstone

The NBA offseason is finally here for the San Antonio Spurs after what turned out to be an exciting, albeit somewhat demoralizing, season for the players and fans alike. Despite adding a clear superstar-level talent to the roster in Victor Wembanyama this past offseason, the team struggled to the finish line this year, tying last season's record of 22 wins and 60 losses.

While there are certainly signs that this won't be the case for much longer, this past season was mostly defined by a young Spurs team playing up to stiffer competition, disappointing moments of playing down to middling or struggling teams, a highly questionable point guard experiment with Jeremy Sochan, and the mantra of learning and reinforcing good habits.

The NBA Draft Lottery and the NBA Draft itself loom on the horizon, but this year's incoming class is turning out to be one of the most divisive in recent memory. Prominent (unnamed) front-office executives have gone on record calling the 2024 NBA Draft "absolutely awful" and the lack of a clear consensus in the draft community at large, even this late in the draft cycle, is obvious.

Following a stacked 2023 draft class that featured nearly endless talent down the board was already going to be a tough ask of any group of players, and the lack of a clear #1 talent has only exacerbated negative feelings about the group.

Even so, however, the Spurs are slated to have yet another high lottery pick in this upcoming draft, and the time has come to begin discussing who the pick could be, as difficult as that may sound. But amid all the noise, bickering, and general animosity toward this draft class, a name toward the top of many draft boards stands out as a talent that Spurs fans need to begin paying attention to: Ronald (Ron) Holland II.

Ron Holland: A brief introduction

Born on July 7, 2005, Ron Holland's journey to the NBA Draft has been punctuated by remarkable achievements, including gold medals in the prestigious FIBA youth tournaments of 2021 and 2022, being named a consensus five-star high school prospect, appearing in the McDonald's All-American Game, the 2023 Nike Hoop Summit, and more. The Duncanville, TX native led his high school team to a #3 national ranking, putting up 20.3 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 2 steals per game in his senior season.

Listed at an imposing 6-foot-8 (but likely standing closer to 6-foot-6 or 6-foot-7) and weighing 206 pounds, Holland possesses the ideal physique for a modern wing player. Transitioning from high school and international success to the G League Ignite at only 18 years old, Holland has honed his game against seasoned professionals, solidifying his status as one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft pool.

His combination of youth, size, strength, and agility bodes well for his versatility on both ends of the floor, and his overall NBA upside is among the highest in his draft class, despite some underwhelming counting stats.

Operating primarily as a small forward, Holland brings a dynamic skill set to the table, blending scoring prowess with defensive tenacity. His tenure with the G League Ignite has provided invaluable experience against professional competition in NBA-like schemes, where he was given the greenest of green lights to showcase his abilities in a high-pressure environment as a de facto #1 option.

Holland will undoubtedly have some areas for improvement to address at the next level, some of which will be discussed here, but the fact of the matter is that high-level production is often one of the safest indicators of NBA success. Despite underwhelming efficiency, the 18-year-old managed to put up 18.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 2.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks per game against professionals, many of whom have played NBA minutes, and that cannot be overlooked. But that isn't the end of Holland's appeal.

Holland's strengths

For the time being, much of Ron Holland's appeal lies in what he can be as opposed to what he is at this moment, as is the case with most 18-year-old prospects. But for a team like the Spurs that is in a position to have a high draft pick and may not have those opportunities for much longer, finding the players with the most potential long-term impact will be the name of the game. The following attributes give Holland the requisite upside for a top-five prospect in this class:

Explosive scoring ability

With a diverse offensive arsenal, Holland excels at creating his shot off the dribble and finishing with authority at the rim, already ranking above average in the 55th percentile (per Synergy). What's more, as a scorer, he ranks in the 59th percentile as a pick-and-roll ball handler and the 77th percentile as a cutter, indicating he could become a valuable offensive asset with and without the ball in his hands at his peak. But perhaps most importantly, roughly a quarter of Holland's generated offense comes in transition, where he's able to leverage his athletic abilities to turn defense into offense with ease.

Athleticism

Holland's athletic ability is among the best in his draft class, serving as a cornerstone of his game and a testament to his potential in the NBA. His lightning-fast first step allows him to blow past defenders with ease, while his verticality and explosive finishing ability make him a formidable presence around the rim.

What's more, despite his still-improving ball handling, Holland possesses the shiftiness to create space on jump shots, even if the efficiency on those shots hasn't come around yet. On defense, his lateral quickness and size allow him to defend multiple positions (2-4) adequately, and he'll likely only improve against bigger opponents as he adds more size to his frame.

Playmaking upside

Many in the draft community see Holland's playmaking as an area for improvement, and considering he currently averages more turnovers (3.2) than assists (2.7) per game, he'll undeniably need to take better care of the ball in the league. But in lower levels of play, Holland was never tasked with being a primary playmaker on offense, having never surpassed 2.9 assists per game in his high school career.

In his first year of professional basketball in a far more ball-dominant role, he very nearly matched that figure and did it without recording an overwhelming number of turnovers. When factoring in Holland's defensive playmaking on top of that, recording 2.3 steals per game, the turnovers he does commit are a bit easier to stomach early in his development.

Holland's areas for improvement

The 2024 NBA Draft class, to be entirely transparent, does not have a Wembanyama-like, consensus #1 prospect. Each player near the top of draft boards this year comes with some level of risk, and Ron Holland is no exception. For Holland to reach his ceiling, he'll need to address the following areas for improvement:

Three-point shooting

Holland's most significant risk factor, particularly in the context of the Spurs, is his three-point shooting. He only converted on 25% of his three-point attempts in his season with the Ignite. Meanwhile, the Spurs ended the regular season as the third-worst three-point shooting team in the league this past season.

Were Holland to enter the starting lineup as Wembanyama and Sochan did in their rookie seasons, that unit could quickly prove to be unplayable if they can't reach league-average three-point shooting as a group. But if the Spurs remain patient and perhaps even move one of Holland or Sochan to the bench initially to make room for another shooter in the starting lineup, the eventual payoff could be massive.

Defensive discipline

A player's role and team situation matter just as much as production, and in Holland's case, being thrown into the G League straight out of high school led to some growing pains on defense. Holland's flashes of on-ball defense were ever present, but the Ignite -- and the G League in general -- didn't necessarily grant him endless opportunities to show it. Holland's off-ball awareness and focus throughout defensive possessions are what lapsed the most in his season with the Ignite and are what will require the most immediate improvement on that end of the floor for short-term success.

Depending on how one perceives his season, one could argue that it exposed his overrated defensive aptitude, while others could argue that this served as a head start on understanding NBA-like schemes. If you ask me, I am part of the latter group and believe that he could quickly adapt as an off-ball defender, particularly under Gregg Popovich.

Decision-making

Holland's overall decision-making, be it settling for contested jump shots, throwing wild passes, barreling into defenders or occasionally ball-watching on defense, leaves a bit to be desired. Again, though, role and situation come into play here. Holland shouldered a lead role for a poorly built Ignite team, particularly on offense, and was often given the green light to create something out of nothing. This sometimes led to wow-inducing moments from Holland, but other times it led to moments that will make evaluators (perhaps unfairly) question his feel for the game.

Holland's fit with the Spurs

The Spurs are in a good, yet somewhat precarious position in that they're still somewhat early in a rebuild, but simultaneously have Victor Wembanyama in their corner, who is ready to contribute at an elite level now. There is endless evidence that suggests Wembanyama is more than happy in San Antonio, but the front office is now firmly on the clock to make meaningful improvements sooner rather than later.

This means that every draft pick, assuming for now that the Spurs decide to keep them, will be critical to the team's short and long-term success. Even though Ron Holland will strike many as a raw prospect who needs refinement, these are the ways in which he'll likely emerge as one of the Spurs' top candidates on draft night:

Holland is a ceiling raiser

The Spurs have made it abundantly clear in recent years that they want to build a perennially competitive team, and while that may be possible through intelligent trades, up to this point, that is not how the Spurs have operated. In a draft class where All-Star upside may be difficult to come by, Holland's upside aligns with that vision of sustained success more than just about anyone else in his class.

Victor Wembanyama managed to blow already-lofty expectations out of the water in his rookie season, and Spurs fans should not expect the team to struggle for much longer. With that in mind, if the team believes they won't have another shot at a high lottery pick in the near future, taking an intelligent swing on a player like Holland may be in the team's best interest for long-term success as opposed to going a slightly safer route for the sake of better short-term gains.

Capitalizing on a simplified role

In a league increasingly driven by offensive firepower, Holland's potential as a three-level scorer adds a dynamic dimension to the Spurs' arsenal. With core players like Victor Wembanyama and Jeremy Sochan already anchoring the defense, Holland's offensive ceiling, should he reach it, could provide the necessary balance for sustained success without sacrificing the team's defense.

In contrast with his time with the Ignite, Holland will not be forced to shoulder a primary offensive role with the Spurs straight out of the gate. Rather, he'll have the opportunity to play off the gravity of the Spurs' current primary offensive threats (in Wembanyama and Vassell) and grow into a larger role more naturally. When given time and a simplified role, young players tend to experience more immediate success.

Contributing to winning basketball

Holland will likely require some patience from the coaching staff and Spurs fans alike before meaningful wins begin to pile up, but that doesn't mean Holland will be unable to contribute on day one. One of the 18-year-old's best qualities that hasn't been discussed at length here is his sheer motor and willingness to put his body on the line to make winning plays.

The ability to stay on the court early in a player's NBA development is a highly underrated factor that contributes to future success, and in a worst-case scenario where Holland is struggling to put the ball in the bucket, his motor and aggression are what could make him playable despite those potential struggles, even in crunch time. In this way, Holland not only has a high ceiling but also a higher floor than he's generally given credit for.

Roster-building flexibility

As the Spurs continue to evolve and adapt to the demands of the modern NBA, Holland represents a potential cornerstone piece in their goal of sustained success. All that is likely firmly known in the minds of the Spurs' front office at this moment is that Wembanyama is the clear centerpiece of the team-building puzzle.

While other young, core pieces on the Spurs like Vassell and Sochan appear to be key components of that same puzzle for the time being, the NBA landscape can quickly shift. Adding a young, versatile, high-upside prospect like Holland to the puzzle could make parting with one or both players easier for the Spurs to stomach if a better opportunity presents itself (e.g., a future superstar trade).

As the 2024 NBA Draft approaches, Ron Holland stands poised as a top candidate for the Spurs, ready to make his mark on the league with an invaluable blend of skill, athleticism, and untapped potential. Spurs fans: pay attention now and get the highlight reels rolling.