Grading the Devin Vassell, Spurs extension from both sides

First-round picks from the 2020 NBA Draft became eligible to sign rookie extensions in early July. That's part of the annual cycle of new contracts in the NBA, as players entering the fourth and final season of their rookie contracts can agree to an extension to kick in for their fifth year and beyond.

The top names from the 2020 Draft agreed to new deals immediately. Anthony Edwards, who went No. 1 in 2020 and made the All-Star Team last year, agreed to a $260 million maximum extension on July 3rd. LaMelo Ball, who made an All-Star Team in just his second season, agreed to the same max extension . Tyrese Haliburton inked the same deal, announced on July 1st. Desmond Bane agreed to a max deal without the "Rose Rule" incentives to potentially bump up the total, landing at $207 million over five seasons.

Curiously, the high-performing guard from the 2020 Lottery who did not agree to an extension in the first week of July was Devin Vassell. While the San Antonio Spurs were drafting French phenoms and using cap space to add future draft assets, word on a contract extension for Devin Vassell was quiet.

Devin Vassell agreed to a new extension

That finally changed on Monday, as it was reported that Vassell and the Spurs had agreed to a new five-year contract extension. The deal will reportedly be worth $135 million guaranteed, with possible incentives that could increase the number another $11 million to a maximum of $146 million over five seasons. The deal will kick in starting in 2024-25 and keeps him under contract through the 2028-29 season.

Was this a good deal for the Spurs? How did Vassell make out in this negotiation? Let's grade this deal for both sides and see who should be happiest now that the deal is complete.

Grading the extension for the San Antonio Spurs

On the surface, $146 million looks like a lot of money for a player like Devin Vassell. In pure financial terms, that deal at its maximum averages out to $29.2 million per season. That's exactly what New York Knicks forward Julius Randle averages on his contract and he was an All-NBA player last season. Jaren Jackson Jr. won Defensive Player of the Year and is making an average of just $26 million on his deal. Jalen Brunson, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and DeMar DeRozan are some of the players averaging less than Vassell on their current deals.

To further spin out the sticker-shock before providing needed context, Mikal Bridges agreed to a four-year, $90 million contract just two years ago. He is the best-case scenario for Vassell, an elite defender and shooter with the upside to add ball skills and become something more. Bridges just barely missed the cut for an All-Defense team in his third season and shot 42.5 percent from 3-point range on a team that went to the NBA Finals; Vassell shot 38.7 percent from deep and didn't sniff an All-Defense team on the worst defense in the league.

So this extension was a massive overpay then? Not so fast; it's time to introduce our friend context to the discussion. The NBA salary cap is increasing by leaps and bounds each and every season, which means that as a percentage of the cap, a contract of $29.2 million is much less than it was even two seasons ago.

Let's break that down in greater detail. Bridges' extension began at $21 million this past season, 2022-23. As a percentage of the cap, that $21 million was 16.98 percent of the cap. If the Spurs start Vassell's deal at its lowest amount of $23.28 million (that's an estimate; they'd probably be wise to start it at a higher number) it will take up just 16.39 percent of the cap in 2024-25 according to current cap estimate.

So right off the bat, the numbers we are dealing with are diluted by the rising cap. While it's expected to grow by a sedate amount this next offseaosn, from there the new television deal is expected to push the cap up by the maximum of 10 percent each season. That means the salary cap, which is $136 million this season, could land as high as $219 million by 2028-29.

That's why the fifth-year matters so much in evaluating this contract. The Spurs are awash in cap space in the short-term; ESPN's Bobby Marks commented that even after the Vassell extension the Spurs project to have $45-60 million in cap space next season. Front-loading the money on the extension would have a marginal impact this season but ensure Vassell is under contract for a pittance by the end of the deal.

If the Spurs were to frontload the deal, the final season of the contract could see Vassell making something like $23 million, which at the current cap estimate would equal around 11 percent of the cap; that's the same as someone making only $14 million this season.

Even if Vassell doesn't become an All-Star type of player, a useful 3-and-D wing in his prime will be worth significantly more than $23 million by the fifth season, and likely more than $30 million. If Vassell is an All-Star two-way wing at 28 years old, he would be in line to make over $50 million easily, with a max contract that year as high as $76 million.

A four-year extension for Vassell would likely have paid him less per season and seen their young wing hit unrestricted free agency a year sooner. The new CBA allows teams to sign players to five-year extensions at less than the maximum amount, with this contract being the first major example; a year ago this would not have been allowed.

This is a great contract and a good player to invest in for the next six seasons. It seems like a lot of money, but in the context of the rising cap, this deal will be a bargain well before it is over.

Grade: A-

Grading the extension for Devin Vassell

Evaluating this extension for Devin Vassell is a bit more subjective than it is for the Spurs, who are clear winners for agreeing to this extension and stretching it out for five seasons. If it's such a team-friendly deal, was Vassell wrong for signing it?

When a player agrees to a rookie extension, they are giving up both flexibility and upside. If Vassell takes another large step forward this season he could be a candidate for a maximum contract next summer. If things go poorly with his relationship with the Spurs, he could even take the bold choice to take the qualifying offer and walk elsewhere. Signing the extension eliminates both of those option, however likely or unlikely they are.

In return, Vassell locks up life-changing money. We put $146 million in context on the last slide, but it's still $146 million. Michael Jordan made $90 million in career salary. Manu Ginobili earned $130 million across his entire NBA career. That's a massive deal for a 23-year-old to sign.

It's also fair to note that players whose value doesn't show in the traditional box score have an uphill battle in negotiations. To his credit, Vassell took a leap last year and averaged 18.5 points per game, but for his career he's at 11.2 points per game, which is ninth in the draft class, behind names like Cole Anthony and Immanuel Quickley. He's 18th in win shares from playing on a rebuilding team.

If Vassell were to have a similar season to last year and then hit restricted free agency next summer, it's not a guarantee that he would make the same money. If something catastrophic were to happen in his personal life, or if he suffered a significant injury, not having a contract could put him in a poor financial situation. Miles Bridges sabotaged himself, but he also lost countless tens of millions compared to the contract extension that he turned down.

Given the touches likely available to Vassell this season, his career trajectory and the value of the position that he plays, he probably could have gone into next season betting on himself to take another step forward. Yet restricted free agency is a nasty game, and he could also have found himself squeezed. The security of this deal means something.

Even so, signing up for five years instead of four years seems like he didn't balance enough risk into the deal. A shorter contract would have put him back on the market sooner and potentially on a max or even supermax deal; if he explodes over the next few seasons he can't realistically increase his salary; he's stuck at an average of $29 million or so.

This was a good deal, a lot of money, and it eliminates the downside risk and the need to negotiate next summer. If Vassell continues to grow, however, he will be massively underpaid by the end of the contract.

Grade: B