3 scenarios the San Antonio Spurs must avoid in 2023–24

After several highly promising preseason showings, the San Antonio Spurs look as though they might be better than expected in the 2023–24 season. Spurs fans should certainly hope so following four straight seasons of missing the postseason, the longest drought in team history.

If they hope to break that streak, then they will need number one overall pick Victor Wembanyama to play exactly like he has thus far in the preseason. He has shown that he can be dominant on both ends of the floor. On offense, he has primarily played out on the perimeter rather than in the post but he has still managed to be surprisingly effective. He can knock down pull-ups, spot-ups, or shoot off pin-downs, and his size and length make it virtually impossible to effectively challenge his shot.

On defense, his height, length, and mobility have led to several jaw-dropping plays. That two-way play could help raise the team up from the basement of the NBA and bring them closer to respectability. That would be a reasonable best-case scenario, but what about worst-case scenarios? There are certainly a few that they should avoid and next, we'll take a look at which ones.

3.) A lack of player development

Landing the number one pick in this year's draft and selecting Wembanyama has dramatically accelerated the Spurs' rebuild. Be that as it may, they are still rebuilding and the objective should continue to be player development. Wembanyama's development will be front and center this season, while last year's three first-round picks will all be closely monitored.

Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, and Blake Wesley were all first-round picks, and although all three players probably won't have a future in San Antonio, we won't know for sure until we've seen their progress. The same can be said for Charles Bassey, Julian Champagnie, and Sidy Cissoko. While that is still open-ended, the Spurs should be careful not to prioritize winning now by playing veterans at the cost of developing young players.

The Spurs have already taken steps to ensure that their young players get the opportunities they need to prove themselves. They cut Cam Payne and Reggie Bullock, clearing a path for Wesley and Branham, while Sochan may move into a new role off the bench. Even then, he would still see plenty of playing time, as would Branham and, to a lesser extent, Wesley.

Pop should also be sure to give other young players a shot during the season. At the moment, Sohan and Branham appear to be well on their way to establishing themselves as part of the team's future, though this season will help determine that.

2.) Striving too hard for the play-in tournament

Prior to the creation of the play-in tournament, the worst place to be was too good to be one of the worst teams in the NBA and too bad to actually make the playoffs. That has changed, with the 9th and 10th-place teams in each conference being eligible for the play-in. That should give the Spurs a chance to make the playoffs—an outside chance, but still a chance.

However, coming close to making the play-in without actually making the play-in is not a place the Spurs should want to be. Even with Wembanyama, the higher the pick the Spurs receive, the better, especially if they also receive Toronto's first-round pick, which would give them the option to pair them together to try and move up in the draft if necessary.

After all, their biggest position of need is at point guard and their best chance of acquiring a talent upgrade at the position is in the draft. Thus, if San Antonio is a few games out of 10th place, then it might make long-term sense for them to pull back rather than push forward, particularly if it increases their chances of upgrading their weakest position.

1.) Wembanyama suffering a season-ending injury

Keeping Wembanyama healthy this season will be the top priority for the Spurs. But basketball gods forbid, a season-ending injury would not only wreck the Spurs' chances of competing this season but potentially affect the team next season. After all, the summer is when young players have the opportunity to add to their game and if he is recovering from a major injury, the focus would be on recovery rather than development.

That development can't be understated. Take other hyped former number one overall picks who had great rookie seasons but became superstars in year two. Going back in time to Shaquille O'Neal, he jumped from 23.4 to 29.3 points per game in his second year. While LeBron James jumped from 20.9 to 27.2 points per game during his second season. No matter how good Wembanyama is during his rookie year, the goal is to have him enter the summer fully healthy to ensure that his progression isn't interrupted.

The Spurs assuredly know how important his health is and will likely take measures to minimize injury, such as limiting him to around 30 minutes per game and perhaps no more than 70 games this season. That might seem too precautionary but there has literally only been one player at least 7'4 to have a long NBA career (Mark Eaton) and the Spurs are hoping that by going slow with Wembanyama, he could be the second.