2023 NBA Mock Draft: Spurs land franchise PG, tanking pays off for Pistons

With the NBA regular season wrapping up and the NBA Draft Lottery just over a month away, draft season is in full swing and many of the world's top talents are beginning to enter their names in the 2023 NBA Draft.

After an offseason that saw the departure of former 29th overall pick Dejounte Murray, San Antonio Spurs fans knew they would be in for a bumpy ride in the regular season. Despite several of the Spurs' most recent draft picks showing on countless occasions why the Spurs chose to invest in them, the team ended their season with 22 wins and 60 losses--tied for second-worst in the league alongside the Houston Rockets.

The Spurs now have a 14% chance at landing the #1 overall pick in the upcoming draft and have a 52% chance of landing a top-four pick. So, while you, I, and all other Spurs fans alike will be holding out hope for good luck in the draft lottery, we think it's still important to investigate all of the Spurs' potential options in the draft.

With that in mind, this mock draft will briefly touch base on 30 draft prospects that we have a first-round grade on, meaning we think the likelihood is high that these names will be called by Adam Silver in the 1st round of the draft, even if they're called in a different order than what's presented here. The draft order is based on the current Tankathon standings as of April 14.

With all of the analysis that’s already out there about Victor Wembanyama, we’re going to keep things short here until we release our in-depth scouting report on him closer to the NBA Draft Lottery. But understand this: Wembanyama will be the #1 overall pick in this draft, and I’ll be shocked if there’s much debate about that leading up to draft night. 

Wembanyama will obviously have to continue building on his slim frame once he enters the NBA, and he could use a bit of work as a spot-up shooter and perimeter defender while away from the ball. But the 7’4” Frenchman will be a game-changer on defense for years to come around the rim and has an unprecedented number of self-creation moves on offense for his size. 

Will he successfully defend MVP-caliber bigs like Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, or Nikola Jokic on day one? Probably not, but few current NBA players are consistently successful defending them either. This, along with some potential long-term health concerns, will almost certainly be shrugged off by front office decision-makers. The fact of the matter is that Wembanyama is easily the best draft prospect I’ve had the pleasure of evaluating, period.

In just about any other draft in recent memory, Scoot Henderson would likely be the #1 overall pick. His combination of sheer athleticism, pick-and-roll scoring and playmaking, and underrated defensive peskiness has garnered him comparisons to the likes of Derrick Rose, Baron Davis, and occasionally even Ja Morant. He’s undoubtedly the most polished guard prospect for his age in the draft and, despite some claims that Alabama’s Brandon Miller is in the mix, will in all likelihood be the #2 overall pick on draft night.

Critics will point to Henderson’s three-point shooting as a concern, but looking at his touch around the rim, his comfort pulling up in the midrange, and his decent mechanics, I’m confident that this is something that can come around over time. And even with a subpar three-point shot, he still managed to put up 17.6 points, 6.6 assists, and 5.1 rebounds per game in a professional league against adults, many of whom are current and former NBA players.

Other critics may point to his size being an issue, but even at only 6'2", Henderson is stalky and quite strong with a 6'9" wingspan that helps him guard up a lineup reasonably well. Henderson will likely only be a two-position defender on-ball, but his motor and physical attributes will allow him to guard them well.

Some recent intel from Spurs insider LJ Ellis indicates that executives around the NBA believe the Spurs are smitten with both Amen and Ausar Thompson and could even opt to select one of those two over Henderson with the #2 overall pick. And while I don't find it hard to believe that the Spurs like the Thompson twins so much, I'm going to call that for what I think it is: a smokesceen.

I notably started the draft cycle much lower on Amen Thompson, and his brother Ausar for that matter, than the large majority of draft analysts. But, while I still have some concerns about both players, I’ve warmed up considerably to both brothers after watching extensive film on their games in the Overtime Elite. 

My concern when it came to Amen’s game was his jump shot and, sadly, 25% from three and 66% from the free-throw line doesn’t instill a ton of confidence that his shot will come around in a meaningful way even with his flashes of good touch. But where he falls short in the shooting department, he makes up for it and then some with his explosive athleticism and hyper-talented playmaking ability. Collapsing opposing defenses and finding open shooters on the perimeter is Amen’s bread and butter and it worked out well for him, as he averaged 5.9 assists per game as the City Reapers’ lead guard.

When it comes to lead guard prospects—particularly ones that aren’t elite shooters—rim pressure is king, and Amen will provide that in excess. If his playmaking and touch around the rim translate to the NBA, he will already be a dangerous offensive weapon. If his jump shot can improve to even average efficiency, we could be looking at one of the highest-upside players in the class.

Drama and extracurriculars aside, Brandon Miller undeniably had one of, if not the best season of any freshman playing college basketball. There’s been some buzz as of late that Miller could challenge Scoot Henderson for the #2 overall selection and for good reason.

Miller was simply one of the most dominant young scorers in college basketball this past season, posting 18.8 points per game and proving that he’s comfortable scoring on all three levels. The dramatic improvements he made to his at-the-rim finishing over the course of the season were convincing and impressive considering how often this was pointed out as an area of improvement for him. His reputation for being a master of the midrange in high school certainly followed him into college basketball, and his three-point shooting, which was largely seen as a question mark before the season began, proved to be just as impressive.

For his size (roughly 6’9”), he’s an incredibly patient ball-handler that plays with poise in the pick-and-roll and is more than capable of making good passing reads in those situations. Despite only having average to slightly above average athleticism, which is still understandably a concern, Miller already possesses the necessary skill set to be a successful three-level scorer in the NBA. When factoring in that he’s also an above-average defender, it’s very easy to see why he’s so highly touted and considered one of the safest bets in the top half of the lottery.

Ausar Thompson began the draft cycle projected quite a bit lower compared to his brother Amen, but over time, he’s gained quite a bit of ground. While Amen served as the City Reapers’ lead guard, Ausar played more often in an off-ball role on offense despite having a somewhat similar style of play.

Comparing the two directly, Ausar has the edge over his brother as a jump shooter, has slightly better handles, and has been able to show more prowess as a cutter. But Amen is the burstier athlete, better at gaining separation against his defender, and is debatably the better playmaker of the two. 

The biggest differentiator between the two twins, though, and why I continue to hold Ausar in (slightly) higher regard compared to his brother, is in their defense. Specifically, despite similar counting stats on that end of the floor, Ausar has shown to be the more disciplined defender when he’s more than one pass away from the ball-handler. Both twins are harassing on-ball defenders, but Ausar loses his man less frequently and has even shown some upside as a weak-side rim protector—a relatively rare attribute for a 6’7” guard/wing.

Even so, I can see either brother being taken off the draft board first, and in this case, Amen is the first one to be picked. 

Cam Whitmore will be an interesting case study for how NBA teams value what is versus what can be. While someone like Brandon Miller, for example, is defined by his production and consistency across his season, Whitmore is much more defined by the incredibly high-level flashes of talent he’s displayed that represents what "could be" if he becomes more consistent over time.

Whitmore is the semi-truck of the draft, who I consider to be the best all-around athlete in the class. He easily brushes off contact on drives, is an explosive leaper off two feet, has a quick first step that will be effective against most defenders, and slides his feet well on defense when engaged. Given his size, he has the potential to be an isolation-scoring threat on offense while guarding up a lineup on defense.

Whitmore’s ceiling is undeniably high—so much so that I think he could go as early as #3 overall in the draft if there’s a team that strongly believes in his upside. He’ll need to develop as a playmaker and as a scorer in the midrange, but if he puts it all together, you’re looking at a star-level two-way wing.

Jumbo playmakers have been making their way into the top 10 of drafts more and more lately, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Anthony Black do the same in this year’s draft. The Arkansas freshman was a walking paint touch on a team that had spacing issues for the large majority of their season in the absence of Nick Smith Jr. and Trevon Brazile. While he only averaged 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists per game this season, in NBA spacing where he’ll have more room to weave through defenses, his production could skyrocket at the next level.

But what separates Black from another jumbo creator like Josh Giddey, for example, is his defense. This is what has stood out about Black dating back to his time playing with USA Basketball, what continued to shine with Arkansas, and what I think will earn him plenty of playing time in the NBA even if his scoring has some catching up to do. 

Black averaged over 2 steals per game in his freshman campaign, and his ability to grab so many steals comes down to his elite anticipation—often looking like he is perfectly mirroring the ball-handler’s movements—along with his quick hands. Given his positional size in combination with this skill package, it’s easy to envision a team rolling the dice on him purely for that defense while being confident that Black’s feel for the game will aid his offensive development over time.

Houston Cougars freshman Jarace Walker is likely the most versatile forward in his draft class and is a name to look out for as early as the #3 overall pick. On offense, he’s proven himself to be an outstanding playmaker for a 6’8”, 240-pound forward, is a good play finisher out of the pick and roll and in the dunker’s spot, has occasionally shown advanced ball-handling, and appears to have good touch on his jump shot.

Defense is where Walker will make his money in the league, though, as he has very real upside as a five-position defender that can cover smaller guards on the perimeter and match up with bigs around the bucket. He moves his feet well, is incredibly strong for his age, reportedly has a 7’2” wingspan, and moves well in the open court. That’s a recipe for a player that will make a living out of easy transition points, especially being that he’s a talented playmaker as well.

Such a wide-ranging impact is very difficult to find in a draft prospect, so I think there’s a strong chance he’ll be picked much earlier than this. But for now, I have him sliding down the board all the way to the Indiana Pacers at #8 overall, and what an absolute draft-night steal this would be for the Pacers organization.

GG Jackson slid down lots of draft boards as the season went on, but despite some questionable defensive engagement, body language, and shot selection, I continue to have a difficult time seeing Jackson fall much further beyond this point in the draft. 6’10” shot creators with his ball-handling ability at his young age are incredibly difficult to come by, and I think there will come the point when a team feels obligated to gamble on such a high-upside prospect even if it means trading up for him.

There are times in draft evaluations when a player’s developmental situation matters almost just as much as their upside and/or production, and I think that is more applicable to Jackson than any other player in his class. To quickly illustrate how underwhelming South Carolina’s offensive firepower was, only one player on the team (Chico Carter) made over 35% of their three-point shots. Furthermore, of the five players that attempted the most field goals on the team, only two of them shot above 40% from the field. 

Jackson was very obviously the Gamecocks’ go-to guy to get a bucket, which is a tough ask for a 17 year old against SEC competition that knew the Gamecocks' game plan from the tip-off. That job likely becomes even more difficult when you can’t trust the large majority of your teammates to make a bucket even if they’re set up well. 

Would Jackson have looked like a better prospect had he been asked to fill an off-ball role within a more talented roster? I would argue probably so, but the flip side of that same coin would have meant that he got significantly fewer primary, on-ball reps. Taking on those reps, and perhaps putting himself outside of his comfort zone in the process, could do wonders for his long-term development even if it means appearing less polished in the short term.

I’m very comfortable at this point labeling UCF’s Taylor Hendricks as this class’ top non-center rim protector, having averaged 1.7 blocks per game in his freshman season. But beyond that, he’s also one of the most polished and versatile defenders in his class. At roughly 6’9” to 6’10”, Hendricks moves very well for his size, making him switchable on the perimeter and able to defend at least four positions on a regular basis. His feel for the game on that end of the floor is comparable with the class’ best defenders.

What could push a front office to take him in the top half of the lottery, however, is this defensive ability in combination with his three-point shooting, as he knocked down 39% of his threes on 4.6 attempts per game. In this way, I find myself having similar feelings toward Hendricks as I did Jabari Smith Jr. from this past draft cycle. While Hendricks may not quite have the one or two-dribble pull-up arsenal that Smith brings to the table, a big, switchable defender that can knock down spot-up threes will almost always be held in very high regard.

With that in mind, how early he’s taken in the draft will largely depend on how much a team is willing to invest in Hendricks’ upside as a pull-up shooter. If a team believes that he can tighten his handles over time and become more of an isolation scoring threat, he could be taken even higher than this.

If Brandon Miller and Gradey Dick aren’t the draft’s best shooters, then I think the clear winner would have to be Jordan Hawkins, whose elite shooting led UConn to a national championship this college basketball season. The sophomore wing has impeccable shot mechanics, has a lightning-quick release even while on the move, and sank 49% of his spot-up three-point shots on the season—an absurd number. 

Many wing prospects get lumped into the ‘3-and-D’ archetype even if one or the other is lacking, but I’d say that classification is very appropriate for Hawkins and that he may even be the best 3-and-D wing prospect in his class. While he mostly serves as a distance shooter on offense, he allows his plus athleticism to shine on defense, where he collected an impressive number of blocks and moved well enough on the perimeter to force ball handlers away from their spots.

When it comes to his athleticism, though, even more than his lateral quickness or vertical leaping ability, Hawkins’ motor and stamina are what stand out. Not to say that he’s on the same level as a shooter coming into the league, but Hawkins very clearly takes a page out of Stephen Curry’s playbook by simply outrunning opponents on offense until they’re too tired to keep up with him on the perimeter. 

Hawkins likely won’t be asked to do much off the dribble as he has some similar limitations in that regard to Gradey Dick, but he’s already so good at what he does that it may not even matter. Hawkins’ three-point shooting on its own could dramatically help a team that’s in need of more floor spacing.

I had the pleasure of watching Keyonte George in-person more than any other prospect this season and, generally speaking, I almost always came away pleased with what I saw in some form or fashion. The 6’4” combo guard was labeled as an elite shot-maker coming out of IMG Academy, but many had questions about his defensive efficacy, playmaking ability, and athleticism.

Thankfully, many of these questions were answered during his lone season at Baylor. George is a decent, but not great athlete that can struggle to create separation at times with the ball in his hands, but has shown some encouraging signs of functional strength when leading with his chest on drives to the bucket. 

Despite underwhelming athleticism, though, George’s ancillary skills that accompany his shooting—specifically his ball-handling and playmaking—have shown to make up for his athletic shortcomings on occasion. His playmaking in particular continues to be an underrated part of his game, but the flashes of quick processing and execution on passes have been encouraging when they didn’t result in turnovers.

Brice Sensabaugh feels like this draft’s Malaki Branham in several respects—he was an Ohio State freshman that largely wasn’t expected to be a one-and-done prospect but managed to shoot the lights out of every building he played in until people took notice. Sensabaugh was plainly one of the most impressive scorers in the country this season, having shot 52% from the field, 41% from beyond the arc, and 83% from the charity stripe.

Considering he’s also 6’6”, weighs roughly 235 pounds, and has very real wiggle to his game, he could potentially be a mismatch nightmare in the NBA that overpowers smaller guards and blows by bigs that can't react quickly enough.

Similar to Branham, though, Sensabaugh’s defense needs a lot of work and there’s a real chance he could be a defensive liability for years to come. You’ll find he frequently loses his man when defending away from the ball, is too upright on closeouts, and has overall been mostly a non-factor on that end of the floor since the beginning of Ohio State’s season. But if you place him within a defensive infrastructure like that of the Toronto Raptors, I think things could get very interesting.

Cason Wallace is easily one of the best defensive guard prospects in his draft class alongside Anthony Black, Ausar Thompson, and others, but rather than his defensive talent coming from using length and athleticism, Wallace’s effectiveness on that end comes from his outstanding positioning, rotations, and screen navigation. He's constantly disruptive on that end of the floor regardless of whether he's playing on- or off-ball and is likely the most fundamentally sound defender in his class.

His feel for the game undoubtedly appears on the other end of the floor as well, however, and it's most frequently on display when making plays for others. While I wouldn't classify him as a flashy passer in the same way Amen Thompson is, for example, he's a very capable post-entry passer, pick-and-roll pocket passer, and weak-side skip passer that won't force the issue if the right angle isn't there. And when he isn't able to connect with a teammate, he's proven to be highly efficient around the rim, shooting 64% on the season despite being an average to below-average athlete.

The path toward Wallace becoming a primary option on offense is a pretty unlikely one given his size and athletic limitations, but if he can continue to become more efficient in the midrange and from three, he has the makings of a very reliable second or third option on that end of the floor. I find it very hard to believe that there won't be at least one team in the lottery that would be willing to bite on such a safe prospect with a high floor.

Just as some fail to consider the G-League’s level of competition when assessing the Ignite’s prospects, the same can often be said for prospects coming out of Australia’s NBL. Josh Giddey, who was seen as a bit of a surprise pick at 6th overall in the 2021 Draft, is likely the best example of this given how much he’s looked the part of a 6th overall pick with only two NBA seasons under his belt. But this also—and more recently—applies to Oklahoma City Thunder forward Ousmane Dieng, who was a notable riser through the final few months of the draft cycle.

In a similar vein, 18-year-old Rayan Rupert could just as easily become a late riser in the 2023 NBA Draft class. The young point wing stands at about 6’6” to 6’7” with a reported 7’3” wingspan, is a fluid ball-handler, and has the playmaking chops of a guard. But it’s Rupert’s lockdown defense that will be his calling card on day one of his NBA career. His long wingspan, fluid athleticism, and obvious feel for the game on that end of the floor make him one of this class’ most intriguing wing-stoppers and a near-constant “pick six” threat in transition. 

His counting stats won’t wow you, as he only played just over 17 minutes per game, but again, selecting Rupert in the draft is more about buying into flashes of upside as opposed to buying into production. And with that in mind, the Atlanta Hawks, who could desperately use a tall wing stopper with shooting upside, strike me as one of the better fits for Rupert.

After working his way up from the U21 French League, Metropolitans 92 wing Bilal Coulibaly is beginning to get very real draft buzz in his own right next to his teammate Victor Wembanyama and could continue to skyrocket up draft boards with more exposure. The 18-year-old wing is known for his combination of athleticism, defensive instincts, and shot-creation upside that could bring back serious value for any team willing to be patient with his development.

I’m generally not one for player comparisons, particularly when a player is as young and raw as Coulibaly still is, but I would not be surprised to see him begin to draw comparisons to Jalen Williams by the time the draft comes around. Coulibaly stands at roughly 6’6” to 6’7” with a reported 7’3” (!!) wingspan, grabs nearly 1 steal per game despite only averaging roughly 15 minutes per game in the LNB Pro A, is a crafty finisher with plus athleticism, and has some upside as a playmaker on both ends of the floor.

Coulibaly’s overall offense is still a work in progress, as he’s only shot about 36% from three including his games in the U21 league, but developmentally speaking, he’s a ball of clay on that end of the floor that could reasonably improve in several areas given his age. If he decides not to declare for the draft this year, he could be a lottery pick in the 2024 NBA Draft if the stars align for him.

Gradey Dick is easily one of my personal favorite prospects in his draft class that I’m confident has more upside than he’s generally given credit for. While we have several players picked before him in this mock draft due to their star-level attributes, don’t mistake: shooting comes at a premium, and Dick will bring a ton of that to the league. He’s one of the best off-ball movers in his class, shot 40% from three on a high volume of shots, is a master of the one- to two-dribble pull-up, and has several moves to create enough space on the perimeter to get a shot off.

With that in mind, though, it’s Dick’s ancillary skills that make him such a valuable prospect in my mind. He has an excellent feel for the game on offense, knowing where the space is, when to cut, and when to make a play for a teammate if the defense collapses on him. While NBA teams almost certainly won’t be asking him to do much off the dribble, if he has a defender beat and forces the help, he almost always capitalizes in some way.

Dick will need to improve his core and lower body strength in particular so he isn’t so prone to mismatches on defense, and his handle will need to tighten up if he’s expected to be anything more than a spot-up shooter. But if he puts all of the pieces of the puzzle together, he can be quite a bit better than many are letting on.

Jalen Hood-Schifino is this draft class’ other jumbo point guard along with Arkansas’ Anthony Black, and while it’s true they both possess good length for their positions and can defend multiple positions as a result, beyond that, differences in their games begin to emerge.

While Black’s offensive game largely revolves around his rim pressure and playmaking as opposed to scoring for himself, Hood-Schifino can be thought of as a more balanced scorer and playmaker. Like Black, Hood-Schifino plays with excellent pace in the pick and roll, but he’s more willing and able to pull up in the midrange. And despite the stats indicating he only hit about 33% of his three-point shots on the season, Hood-Schifino’s range does extend to the three-point line and he’s capable of getting hot after seeing one go through.

What may keep Hood-Schifino from being a bonafide lottery prospect comes down to consistency, particularly as a scorer. If a team believes they can turn Hood-Schifino’s streaky shooting into something consistent, even if it means only being an above-average shooter, this could dramatically open up the rest of his game.

Although they began to turn things around in a big way toward the end of the season, Duke basketball didn’t quite go as planned this season. Dereck Lively II and Dariq Whitehead began their freshman campaigns dealing with calf and foot injuries, respectively, and were forced to integrate with the team slower than anticipated. Lively was the first of the two to return to action, however, and began showing scouts why he was touted as a lottery prospect coming into the college basketball season.

After Victor Wembanyama, Lively has a case to be the class’ second-best rim protector, having averaged 2.4 blocks in only about 20 minutes played per game. His length, athleticism, and timing all lend to his elite rim protection that, even on its own, will give him a high floor in the NBA. Similarly, his hyper-efficient scoring around the rim—both as the roller in the pick and roll and as a lob threat in the dunker’s spot—will give him a good offensive foundation to build on. 

These attributes by themselves will already have teams interested, but if he proves that he can extend his range to the three-point line as was advertised before the college basketball season, he could be picked even earlier.

Xavier guard Colby Jones finally put all the pieces of the puzzle together in his third season with his team, proving himself as one of the most versatile two-way guards in the entire draft. Despite subpar free-throw shooting numbers (hitting only 65% of his 3.4 attempts per game), Jones dramatically improved as a three-point shooter in his junior season, jumping from 29% last season to just under 38% this season.

But Jones’ appeal largely comes from his wide-ranging impact on any given game, as he’s proven to be a versatile defender at 6’5”, a very capable playmaker (averaging 4.4 assists per game this past season), and someone that can be successful on or off-ball. 

Teams toward the end of the first round will likely have several experienced wings to choose from, but Jones strikes me as the player that will be able to fill the most gaps for his future team, leading me to believe he’ll be taken before the likes of Julian Strawther, Jalen Wilson, Jaime Jaquez, and others.

While Jett Howard was initially Michigan’s main draw for many draft analysts, it was sophomore guard Kobe Bufkin that debatably showed more growth during the season and likely was the Wolverines’ best player down the stretch. 

He shot an astounding 71% at the rim on over 100 attempts on the season, improved his three-point shooting by about 13% compared to his freshman season while roughly tripling his volume of shots, and served as a hard-nosed defender for Michigan at the point of attack. 

Considering all of these attributes, it’s understandable that some are beginning to call him one of the most well-rounded guards in his draft class. If NBA teams believe Bufkin’s efficiency around the rim wasn’t a fluke, expect him to be taken off the board in the mid to late 1st round. If a team believes he can take on lead guard responsibilities, I think a team could reach for him as high as the late lottery.

Like Dereck Lively, Duke freshman Dariq Whitehead got off to a slow start at the beginning of the season as he was coming off a foot injury. As a result, his athleticism took a noticeable hit compared to what it looked like coming out of high school. While Whitehead delivered on his reported shooting talent, having shot 43% from three on a high volume of shots, many questions about his game were left mostly unanswered by the end of Duke’s season.

One of Whitehead’s swing skills coming into his freshman season was his ball handling. Because he doesn’t possess an elite first step, particularly after his injury, he needed to show scouts that he could make his way to the rim using craft instead, but mostly failed. His defense also seemed to suffer, which was already a bit questionable and labeled as a swing skill to begin with.

Whitehead will likely have one of the biggest draft ranges by the time draft night rolls around, and given the massive divergence between his current state and his projections coming out of high school, pre-college tape may matter more with Whitehead than most other prospects in the draft. After all, if there’s any current NBA player that perfectly exemplifies how detrimental a foot injury can be (and how recovering can positively impact their play), it’s Zach Collins.

The G-League Ignite’s Leonard Miller is one of the funkiest and most fascinating prospects in the entire draft and is being criminally under-talked-about after some of the novelty of his draft analysis from last season wore off. If you’re asking me, though, I couldn’t be happier that I kept stock in him, as there were multiple times throughout the G-League regular season when Miller looked like the Ignite’s best draft prospect.

An all-around poor performance in last year’s draft combine scrimmages scared many evaluators away from Miller purely because of how unrefined his game looked at the time, but if there’s any good indicator of just how talented he is, it’s how rapidly he’s improved over the course of a year in the G-League.

Miller ended the Ignite’s regular season having put up 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game. As the counting stats indicate, he’s already an elite rebounder and just as elite of a scorer inside the arc, having made 60% of his two-point shots (including 66% of his shots around the rim). He also displayed very convincing touch around the rim with both hands and sunk 79% of his free throws, indicating that a more reliable jump shot could be in his future with some mechanical tweaks to his form.

With all of this in mind, though, I think it’s Miller’s upside as a transition threat, versatile defender, and ball-handler in the half-court that could convince a team to take a swing on him a bit earlier than the consensus suggests right now.

At this point in the draft, you won’t find a much better athlete that’s still up for grabs outside of UConn guard/wing Andre Jackson Jr. The 6’6” junior won’t exactly blow you away looking at the stat sheets, but if his time with UConn proved anything, it’s that he can contribute to winning basketball without scoring and without the ball in his hands at all.

On a UConn team that was full of outstanding defenders, Jackson stood out from the pack, using his freakish athleticism to chase down blocks in transition, keep up with opposing teams’ best players on the perimeter in the half-court, and cover tons of ground as a help defender. 

Outside of his incredible feel as a passer, Jackson’s offense is still very much a work in progress, particularly when he’s asked to do something with the ball on his own. But just as Brice Sensabaugh’s lackluster defense could be covered up by strong defensive infrastructure like Toronto’s, Jackson’s lack of scoring ability can be covered up by Sacramento’s high-level offense. If Jackson can come into the league and focus on making plays on defense and making good passing reads on offense, I see the Kings being an outstanding fit for him.

Michigan’s Jett Howard is yet another one of the draft’s top shooters, as he shot 38% on catch-and-shoot looks in his freshman season including some from deep range or with a hand in his face. And even more impressively, he was just as efficient on pull-up shots from three and in the midrange.

Being that Howard stands at roughly 6’8”, his shooting in and of itself makes him a valuable asset for most teams. But what could make him a potentially lottery-worthy prospect is the flashes of high-level playmaking that accompany his shooting. A 6’8” forward that’s willing to put the ball on the floor like a guard and make a play for himself and his teammates is a player that can fit into several different lineups.

Unfortunately, Howard’s lack of athleticism handicaps his creation upside quite a bit, and considering there are other shooters available with a deeper bag of offensive tricks and/or more defensive upside, Howard slides a bit here. But if Howard finds himself on a team where he’s surrounded by defensive playmakers and can afford to stick to his strengths, he can still provide plenty of value.

It brings me no pleasure to bring up this name for obvious reasons, but if there’s any player in this draft that has been in a developmental situation similar to that of Josh Primo at Alabama, it’s Sidy Cissoko playing with the G-League Ignite. Like Primo, Cissoko has been forced to play in many multi-guard/wing lineups alongside teammates Scoot Henderson, Pooh Jeter, Marcus Graves, Mojave King, and London Johnson, often being relegated to the corners in the process despite not being known to thrive away from the ball.

With that in mind, Cissoko played much more as a secondary ball-handler in years past. But make no mistake: while he hasn’t been known as a true point guard up to this point in his career, he is easily one of the most talented passers in his class despite having not been able to show that talent off on a regular basis with the Ignite. Passes like this one from when he played with Iraurgi SB in the Spanish LEB Oro (at only 17 years old) make me very confident of that.

Regardless of position, teams will like Cissoko for his sheer size and physicality, coming in at about 6’7” and 200 pounds, along with his playmaking ability and defensive versatility. But if a team believes in his upside as a ball-handler, passer, and spot-up shooter, I think there could be a few teams willing to experiment with him and take him off the draft board much earlier than some may anticipate.

For now, we have him going 26th overall to the Pacers, but don’t be surprised if he continues to rise in mock drafts during the pre-draft process.

Nick Smith Jr. falling this far down our draft board isn’t so much an indictment of him or his game as it is a testament to how good the rest of the draft class is. I wasn’t quite as high on Smith as others were coming into the season due to worries about his very slim build and defensive efficacy, and now that the draft is drawing closer, I still have those concerns.

Similar to Keyonte George, Smith was labeled as an elite shot creator coming into the college basketball season, and his elite touch on his floaters indicates that such a label could be warranted, but his scoring talent is still largely theoretical. Injuries held Smith out for an extended period of time that likely had some kind of impact on his efficiency, but even with a clean bill of health I’m not particularly confident that he’ll be able to get away with a significant chunk of his below-the-rim scoring in the paint at the next level.

If there's a team that really believes in his touch, Smith could be selected anywhere in the mid to late 1st round. But if teams are scared that he won't be able to put on enough muscle to bang bodies in the paint and become more efficient, I see a Jaden Hardy-like slide on draft night in his future.

If Kris Murray sounds familiar, it’s because he’s the twin brother of Sacramento Kings forward Keegan Murray. Understandably, Kris is the same size as his brother Keegan, standing at roughly 6’8” with a 6’11” wingspan, and after the departure of his brother from Iowa, the took on far greater responsibilities with the team and made a big leap in production as a result.

Murray averaged 20.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal per game this past season, taking the reigns as Iowa’s primary scoring option on offense while also often being tasked with defending some of the opposing team’s best players. 

Kris isn’t quite the three-point shooter that Keegan is currently, but his touch around the rim and improved free-throw shooting indicate that he could improve over time, particularly if his new team aims to take some of the offensive load off his shoulders. Murray doesn’t have the upside of some other players that will likely be selected in his range, but for any team that’s looking for more wing depth along with a respectable dose of shooting and defense, Murray could fill that need at a good value.

DaRon Holmes is another one of my personal favorite prospects in the ’23 draft class despite mostly being written off as a 2nd round prospect, but assuming for now that he doesn’t return to school for his junior season, I won’t be too surprised if he sneaks into the back end of the first round based on what he’s already shown during his two seasons with the Dayton Flyers.

I wrote in-depth about Holmes’ game early in the college basketball season, so I’d encourage you to read that if you’re looking for a longer-form analysis of his game. But in short, Holmes’ feel for the game on both ends of the floor matches or surpasses that of any other big man in the ’23 draft class. This allows him to read the opposing offense as a defender and make plays for others on offense, giving him a unique two-way upside that doesn’t rely exclusively on athleticism and/or play finishing.

With that in mind, though, Holmes is also a solid athlete despite needing to add weight to his frame. He averaged just under 2 blocks per game this season, grabbed 8.1 rebounds per game, and can hold his own switching on the perimeter. His length and athleticism allow him to contest on closeouts in a Robert Williams-esque manner and his willingness to run in transition leads to easy points frequently.

Maxwell Lewis was once considered a possible lottery pick early in this year’s draft cycle and is still very much a 1st round prospect worth being excited over, even if he began to cool off toward the end of the regular season. At 6’7” with roughly a 6’10” wingspan, Lewis is a fluid ball-handler with legitimate three-level scoring upside. 

While Lewis’ athleticism is increasingly becoming an important part of his success as a scorer, he still relies more on his craftiness to score, particularly in the midrange and around the rim. As he continues to adjust and become more in tune with his own length and athletic capabilities, his consistency both as a scorer and defender could dramatically improve.

Even more so than adjusting to his athleticism, though, improving as a playmaker will be important for Lewis if he is to ever reach his offensive ceiling.