Nov 18, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Jrue Holiday (11) is defended by Cleveland Cavaliers forward Alonzo Gee (33) during the first quarter at the Wachovia Center. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The Spurs will win if: Philadelphia is a vulnerable team, having lost 14 of 18 games. The Spurs should be able to create the looks they want against an average defense and eliminate memories of their 83-100 loss to New York in which they shot 36.4 percent from the field.

The 76ers will win if: They allow fewer than 100 points. Philadelphia is 2-8 when the opposition scores more than 100 points. Last season’s third ranked defense is still their primary strength but the absence of Andre Iguodala has been sorely felt. Through 33 games, Doug Collins’ bunch is allowing 105.2 points per 100 possessions, 14th in the league.

The biggest difference is in rim protection. Teams have made 65.1 percent of their shots at the rim per Hoopdata, just a shade above-average. With a smaller lineup — 6-foot-9 Lavoy Allen is manning most of his minutes at center in the absence of center Andrew Bynum — Philly has ceded 3.9 more attempts per game in the paint than last year.

X-Factor: Though the 76ers have been plagued offensively and haven’t defended at an elite rate this season, Jrue Holiday’s maturation into a well-rounded point guard is the most encouraging development on a team still bereft of Bynum.

Averaging a team-high 38.5 minutes per game, Holiday has dished an average of nine assists, third in the league, along with 18.8 points per game. Both are career-highs. Not only do Holiday’s numbers shatter his previous highs — 14 points and 6.5 assists, respectively — but they put him in the upper echelon of point guards.

His current production puts him in the same class as Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook. The three are the only players averaging at least 15 points and eight assists per game. LeBron James narrowly missed the cut.

Perhaps Holiday’s improvement can be attributed to the extra contact he is generating. Last season he averaged a lowly 1.8 free throw attempts per game. That has risen to 3.5 this season, a number that still is lower than desired. When he does slash into the lane successfully, Holiday is making 70 percent of his shots at the rim, fifth among point guards.

Philadelphia is trusting their 22-year-old point guard with more than a fourth of their possessions and that has paid off; they score 3.7 points per 100 possessions more with Holiday on the floor per NBA.com/Stats. The 76ers have a bunch of flaws, but they are significantly better with Holiday.

Despite trading Andre Iguodala to the Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia still has an abundance of forwards. Howard will be competing with Jason Richardson, Evan Turner, Dorell Wright, Nick Young and Thaddeus Young — all of which are already guaranteed a roster spot.

Sept. 19, 12:52 pm: Howard and the Utah Jazz are reportedly nearing a new contract (via bettor.com and the Salt Lake Tribune.) The terms have not been finalized but it is unlikely that Howard signs with the Spurs this season.

“Josh is still without a team for next season, and worked out for the San Antonio Spurs a few days ago, but the Jazz are reported to be nearing a deal to bring him back.

The Salt Lake Tribune has reported that the Jazz and Howard have reached a mutual agreement, hinting that he may very well return to the Salt Lake City next season.”

Hat-tip to Michael A. De Leon of Project Spurs.

Sept. 16, 4:22 pm: Howard will visit the San Antonio Spurs on Monday according to Marc J. Spears of Yahoo! Sports.

Free agent forward Josh Howard to visit Spurs on Monday, source tells Y! Sports.

— Marc J. Spears (@SpearsNBAYahoo) September 16, 2012

This news come after he chose the Utah Jazz over the Spurs in free agency. He appeared in 43 games with Utah last season, averaging 8.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 39.9% shooting.

The Spurs have been reportedly interested in signing Howard for the last couple of years. They are interested in the 32-year-old forward despite statistical data indicating that Howard is steadily declining. His PER, true shooting percentage, free throw rate, rebounding rate and turnover rate are dropping in the wrong direction.

Perhaps the Spurs believe their ball movement will coax Howard into improving his shot selection. Nearly half of his attempts came from the most inefficient spots on the floor. His 33% mark from 10-23 feet isn’t enough to offset the inherent inefficiency from these types of attempts.

Howard can still make a tangible impact defensively; Utah allowed 102.2 points per 100 possessions with Howard on the floor, which would rank them eighth in the entire league, compared to a league-average 104.2 points per 100 possessions with Howard sidelined.

If Howard were to parlay his visit tomorrow into a roster spot with San Antonio, it would likely be in a limited role. Despite his track record, he is still a downgrade from Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson at this current stage of his career.

Hat-tip to Paul Garcia of Project Spurs.