Mar 31, 2012; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Ersan Ilyasova (7) during the game against the Memphis Grizzlies at the Bradley Center. The Grizzlies defeated the Bucks 99-95. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-US PRESSWIRE

Ersan Ilyasova, Milwaukee Bucks — five-years, $45 million

Milwaukee made an aggressive stab at retaining Ilyasova. They may overpaid for a 25-year old who elevated his play in a contract season (fishy, huh?) that did, to his credit, display a unique ability to score from the interior and perimeter while hauling a high percentage of rebounds. How much of that is repeatable though?

That is the underlying question and that’s the crux of Milwaukee’s problem: Do they place more credence on his most recent success, as tantalizing as the numbers suggest, or do they trust the three years of data that contradict his finest season? Ilyasova raised his 3-point percentage to an abnormal rate of 45.5%. Juxtaposed against his career norm (33.5%), it could easily be an outlier. Or it can be attributed to a young player that underwent a noticeable internal improvement that was supported by statistics.

Milwaukee felt the risk of acquiring the younger, less effective Ilyasova was worth the potential value of netting a guy who can shoot for 40% from behind the arc and grab greater than 20% of his teams rebounds. It probably isn’t a great value but I don’t have any qualms with Milwaukee’s risk assessment.

Jeff Green, Boston Celtics — four-years, $36 million

On the other hand … I have serious questions about this deal. Why would Boston shell out $9 million per year to a guy who missed the entire 2011-12 season with an aortic aneurysm and, prior to the consummation of this contract, performed at a rate that can be best described as bleh. Bleh. Like 12.8 PER bleh.

There’s nothing particularly special about Green — his game has the potential of resembling some flawless, esoteric piece of art, albeit unremarkable in any facet. The “art” would probably feel insufficient. Green has the potential of playing solid defense and scoring at a palatable rate. But don’t you think $9 million per year for four-years is a little bit much for a player that, at this juncture, is strictly potential at this point?

Orlando signed Ryan Anderson to a four-year, $36 million contract then traded to New Orleans for Gustavo Ayon (sign-and-trade)

The New Orleans’ front office should deserve major credit for their efforts. They’ve unloaded a couple of poor contracts, relented on re-signing Chris Kaman and they’ve found an elite spot-shooter that can do more than just shoot.

Paying Anderson $9 million per year, compared to the enigma that is Ilyasova, is less risky with three consecutive successful seasons under his belt. Anderson’s shooting proficiency is, therefore, more reliable. But not only is Anderson an elite stretch 4, but he excelled as an offensive rebounder. Plus, it isn’t insane to theorize that Anderson will see his defensive rebounding percentage rise without Dwight Howard corralling every defensive rebound in sight.

I also like this deal for the Hornets because, though Anderson is an highly effective weapon, he won’t take away possessions from Eric Gordon, Austin Rivers and Jarrett Jack. His efficiency is still highly dependent on catch-and-shooting, as spot-ups represented 35.4% of his offensive possessions last year. Relying on a guy that scores 1.09 points per possession isn’t a bad fallback option.

As for Orlando: They acquired a cost-effective forward in Ayon. Ayon will only garner $3 million over the next two seasons, both of which are team options. (Flexibility!) He won’t help Orlando retain Dwight but he’ll be a nice option on pick-and-rolls and he won’t screw up too much. The Magic should avoid building a mediocre basketball team at all costs and paying Anderson would’ve ensured a couple extra years as a borderline playoff threat.

Apr 18, 2012; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks power forward Josh Smith (5) and Atlanta Hawks guard Kirk Hinrich (6) help up shooting guard Joe Johnson (2) during the second half against the Detroit Pistons at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 116-84. Mandatory Credit: Paul Abell-US PRESSWIRE

WINNERS

Atlanta Hawks

While Atlanta didn’t acquire anyone of significance nor did they improve through the draft, they have escaped the first week of free agency unscathed and, ultimately, a team more equipped to win in the long run. In a stroke of genius, Danny Ferry eliminated $81.5 million of future salary commitments while retaining their three most valuable trade chips — Josh Smith’s $13.2 million expiring deal, Al Horford and Jeff Teague. Now they have flexibility and assets. Atlanta won’t contend for a title but they werent’t going to prior to trading Joe Johnson anyway.

Here was my initial reaction to the Johnson deal:

    So how did Atlanta win this despite giving up a really talented player in exchange what will likely amount     to little on-court production? NBA analysts throw around this term quite often — flexibility. The reprieve     that of trading Johnson ostensibly represents a temporary reset button on the entire operation. The prior     regime never pushed that reset button, opting to create mediocre teams instead. Ferry finally pushed that     reset button. Atlanta’s newfound flexibility — here is that term again — is invaluable.

Now that’s how you win an offseason without actually improving your team in the short-term.

Los Angeles Lakers

Prior to the start of free agency, you couldn’t blame Lakers fans for expecting an uneventful offseason. In theory, with $79.8 million tied up to 10 players, Los Angeles had essentially no cap room to cover up for their deficiencies — namely their depth and point guard play (especially since Ramon Sessions is an unrestricted free agent).

Well, the Lakers remedied the entire situation by utilizing their trade exception, acquired in the Lamar Odom deal last year, to acquire Steve Nash. Nash, as you know, is an elite passer and shooter. There is some questions concerning his ability to cope with Kobe Bryant on the basketball floor and whether Mike Brown will utilize his defined skills in an appropriate manner. But he’s Steve Nash. He’s really, really good. The Lakers should be fine.

Toronto Raptors

I consider Toronto a winner because they traded a future lottery pick and Gary Forbes for a legitimate starting point guard who played at an All-Star level for the first of last season. They may have overpaid Landry Fields but they have put themselves in a good position to make the playoffs. (Remember: Jonas Valanciunas will likely play with Toronto this year. According to people that know more about prospects than me, he should be pretty good.)

With an aggregate winning percentage of 37.8% over the last four years — translated to an 82-game season, that’s a 31-51 record — Toronto is tired of toiling in the metaphorical doldrums. I like where they are headed.

Jeff Green/David Falk

If Green earns a four-year deal worth $40 million, according to a report, it’d be the best performance by an agent without any actual leverage in … awhile. There hasn’t been a ton of interest surrounding Green, who was sidelined the entire 2011-12 season with an aeortic aneurysm. How did he wiggle himself into a deal worth approximately $10 million a year despite playing at an average rate (12.8 PER over first five seasons)? Well done, David Falk (Green’s agent). Well done.

***

LOSERS

Dallas Mavericks

Marc Cuban’s entire modus operandi hinged on one important person — Deron Williams. If he opted to stay in Brooklyn, it’d be a failure from the onset. When Williams re-signed with Brooklyn to a tune of five-years, $100 million; Dallas’ brilliant plan was foiled. What made it worse? Jason Terry fled the team for Boston and Jason Kidd had cold feet before jolting to New York. The remnants aren’t pretty either — Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion and not much else. Is this even a playoff team anymore?

Houston Rockets

Houston was in a similar boat to Dallas with their plans revolving around a superstar — Dwight Howard. They didn’t get screwed as much as Dallas considering they still have a ton of assets to trade. Whether the return is Howard remains to be seen. Howard maintains that he won’t re-sign with Houston, putting a damper on their mood. The questionable move of trading Kyle Lowry, despite losing Goran Gragic to Phoenix, left a gaping hole at the point guard position too.

Dwight Howard

His primary destination, Brooklyn, doesn’t have any cap room. That fact hasn’t deterred them yet: they remain active in talks with Howard and, conceivably, everyone in the NBA and my grandma too. (She can be had for the mini midlevel exception and is an excellent mentor for any player in the league given that she’s 68 years old.) The Lakers have similarly moved on after acquiring Nash. Dallas suddenly doesn’t have any semblance of their championship foundation. Yup. Nothing is quite coming together for Dwight right now.

(Cue the miniature violins.)